WEEKLY ANALYSIS FOR WEEK ENDING 29TH NOVEMBER

THE WEEK ENDING 22TH NOV MOVED EXACTLY AS WAS MENTIONED IN THE WEEKLY ANALYSIS FOR THE WEEK BELOW. THE WEEK SAW NIFTY FUTURE MAKING  A FRESH LOW OF 5984 AROUND 3 PM  ON FRIDAYS AFTER BREACHING THE EARLIER 13TH NOVEMBER SWING LOW OF 6009 BUT THE LAST HALF AN HOUR OF FRIDAY SAW NIFTY FUTURES RISING SHARPLY FROM THE LOW OF 5984 TO 6033 TO FINALLY CLOSE AROUND 6033 THUS BRINGING SOME CHEERS FOR THE HARASSED BULLS TO AT LEAST HAVE THE WEEKEND IN PEACE. THE FACT THAT IN SPITE OF THE SAVAGE FALLS, SPOT NIFTY INDEX DID NOT DECISIVELY BREACH THE  13 NOV SWING LOW OF 5973 AND JUST BOUNCED FROM 5972.95, WAS A SUPERB JOB DONE BY THE INDEX MANAGEMENT DACOITS TO FOX THE FUTURE TRADERS BUT KEEP THE MAIN SPOT INDEX AS A HOPE GENERATOR FOR THE BULLS,  WHO ONLY TO BE FOOLED AGAIN BY THESE FOREIGN DACOITS. THE LAST HALF HOUR SHORT COVERING RISE HAS PUT THE BEARS IN A FIX WHETHER TO RESUME SHORTING AGAIN FROM THE VERY START OF NEXT WEEK STARTING 25TH NOV OR WAIT FOR ANOTHER DECEPTIVE RISE TOWARDS THE  RESISTANCE LEVELS OF 6050 TO 6060 SPOT LEVELS TO UN-LEASE THEIR ENTIRE SHORTING POWER BY HAVING STOP LOSS ABOVE THURSDAY 21ST NOV OPENING GAP HIGH OF 6096 TO 6107 SPOT ZONE.

IN THE DAILY CHART OF SPOT NIFTY BOTH THE 50 DAY EMA & THE SMA LOOK LIKE HAVING GOT MARRIED AROUND THE LEVEL OF 6040 TO 6050 SO ALSO ARE BOTH THE 200 DAY EMA & THE SMA AROUND THE 5858 SPOT LEVELS. SPOT NIFTY NEEDS TO MOVE UP AND DECISIVELY CLOSE ABOVE THE MARRIED COUPLE OF 50 DAY EMA & SMA ABOVE 6050 SO THAT THE +VE DIVERGENCE INDICATED BY SOME OF THE DAILY INDICATORS LIKE RSI, CCI, MACD HISTOGRAM & STOCH CAN ENJOY THE MARRIAGE PARTY TO ENERGIZE THE BULLS TOWARDS SOME MORE RISE. THE RESISTANCE LINE COMING FROM  DIWALI’S DECEPTIVE HIGH OF 6343  JOINING THE 19TH NOV HIGH OF 6213  SLIDES DOWN TO MEET SPOT NIFTY AROUND 6161 LEVELS & THIS RESISTANCE LINE CERTAINLY WILL BE THE MAJOR HURDLE FOR ANY FURTHER UP MOVE.


 A DECISIVE BREACH OF THIS RESISTANCE LINE WILL CERTAINLY GENERATE MASSIVE SHORT COVERING & EVEN HARD CORE SWING SHORTERS MAY RETHINK WHETHER TO QUIT THE SHORTS  ON A BREACH OF THIS RESISTANCE LINE ON A CLOSING BASIS OR STILL HOLD THEIR SWING SHORTS TILL SPOT NIFTY BREACHES THE 19TH NOV HIGH OF 6212 TO CLOSE ABOVE IT. SHOULD THIS HAPPEN THEN BEARS MAY NOT BE VISIBLE AT ALL & EVEN THE DECEPTIVE DIWALI HIGH OF 6343 SPOT WILL BE ENTIRELY SKIPPED TO SEE SPOT NIFTY MAKING A NEW LIFE TIME HIGH BEFORE THIS YEAR END ABOVE THE 6 YEAR OLD 8TH JANUARY 2008 HIGH OF 6357 SPOT. A FAILURE ON THE PART OF THE BULLS TO LIFT SPOT NIFTY ABOVE THE RESISTANCE LINE  OR MORE IMPORTANTLY ABOVE 6161 WILL CONFIRM THE CONTINUATION OF THE DOWN SIDE A,B,C CORRECTION THAT HAS STARTED FROM DIWALI HIGH OF 6343 SPOT TOWARDS 5878 TO 5858 SPOT LEVELS TO AT LEAST SAY A HELLO  TO THE MARRIED COUPLE OF 200 DAY EMA & SMA HIDING THERE FOR A VERY LONG TIME.

IN THE WEEKLY CHART OF SPOT NIFTY, THE WEEKLY CANDLE HAS MADE AN OUT SIDE CANDLE FORMATION  WITH THE WEEKLY CANDLE OF WEEKENDING 11TH NOV. A BREACH OF THE LOWS AROUND 5973 WILL CONFIRM THAT THE BEARISH ENGULFING CANDLE FOR THE WEEK ENDING 8TH NOV HAS MORE VENOM TO BE INJECTED INTO THE BULLS. THE ONLY SAVING FACTOR IN THE OVERBOUGHT LOOKING WEEKLY CHARTS IS THAT SPOT NIFTY HAS NOT YET BREACHED THE 20 WEEK EMA AROUND THE CRITICAL LEVEL OF 5959, BELOW WHICH  COMES THE CRITICAL ZONE OF  5878 TO 5890 WHERE POLYGAMY IS BEING PERFORMED BY 34 WEEK EMA,34 WEEK SMA,20 WEEK SMA AND THE 50 WEEK SMA.. SO, EVEN THOUGH MOST OF THE WEEKLY INDICATORS LOOK OVERBOUGHT YET WILL FIND SUPPORT AROUND THESE AUSPICIOUS MARRIAGE PANDALS LOCATED AROUND 5959 & 5878 SPOT.

SUPPORTS & RESISTANCES FOR SPOT NIFTY DURING THE COMING WEEK ARE AS PER THE LEVELS INDICATED IN THE 2 HOURLY CHART OF SPOT NIFTY ABOVE. BREACH OF EACH OF THE UP SIDE OR THE DOWN SIDE STEP WILL TAKE NIFTY SPOT TO THE NEXT STEP MENTIONED. THE MOMENTUM INDICATOR STOCHASTIC AS CAN BE SEEN IN THE TWO HOURLY CHART ABOVE HAS NOT YET MOVED UP  ABOVE THE 20 MARK ALTHOUGH IT DECEPTIVELY LOOKS OVERSOLD. HOWEVER SHOULD SPOT NIFTY MOVE UP TO BREACH THE INITIAL RESISTANCE AREA OF 6050 TO 6060 THEN ONE CAN NOTICE COMMENCEMENT OF THE INITIAL BOUT OF SHORT COVERING TO START  A CHAIN REACTION IN FAVOR OF THE BULLS TO AROUSE FRESH BUYING INTEREST OR ELSE IT WILL BE THE CONTINUATION OF THE BEARS HONEYMOON PERIOD OF SHORT ON RISE TO SEE MUCH LOWER LEVELS.

MARKETS FOR WEDNESDAY 13TH NOVEMBER

AS EXPECTED NIFTY SAW ITS SIXTH CONSECUTIVE DAY OF FALLS AND AGAIN BE SURE TILL EVERYONE START TO BELIEVE THAT MARKET HAS TURNED BEARISH , NIFTY WILL BE MADE TO FALL ONLY WITH A FACE SAVING FLAT DAY HERE & THERE. HAVING TESTED THE INTRADAY LOW OF 6012 SPOT ON TUESDAY AROUND THE LEVEL OF 50% RETRACEMENT & ALSO AROUND THE 50 DAY EMA, NIFTY SPOT MAY BE MADE TO MAKE A DECEPTIVE RISE BUT ONLY TO BE PULLED DOWN AGAIN TO TEST THE MOST IMPORTANT RETRACEMENT LEVEL OF 61.8% AROUND 5945. THE RUNNING WEEK BEING ANOTHER TRUNCATED WEEK WITH HOLIDAY ON THURSDAY 14TH, EXPECT SOME SHORT COVERING RISE ON WEDNESDAY & ALSO FRIDAY TO SLIDE AGAIN FROM NEXT WEEK TILL A BEARISH ATMOSPHERE IS INDUCED IN THE MINDS OF ALL TRADERS & INVESTORS ONLY TO FIND AFTER IT THAT NIFTY IS RISING AGAIN TOWARDS NEW LIFE TIME HIGHS.

FOR INTRADAY TRADING ON WEDNESDAY, SPOT NIFTY WHICH HAS CLOSED AROUND 6018 NEAR THE LOWEST POINT OF THE DAY, LOOKS WEAK FOR FURTHER SLIDE TOWARDS SUB 6000 SPOT LEVELS SO THAT IT CAN MOVE NEARER TO PEEP AT OR EVEN KISS THE FIBO 61.8% LEVEL OF 5945 BEFORE A REASONABLE BOUNCE. HOWEVER INSTEAD OF FALLING ON WEDNESDAY, IN CASE SPOT NIFTY MOVES UP TO SUSTAIN ABOVE 6040 TO 6045 ZONE THEN EXPECT HIGHER SPOT NIFTY LEVELS OF 6055 FOLLOWED BY 6075 TO EYE FOR 6100 AGAIN.

SIMILARLY ON THE LOWER SIDE , CONTINUANCE OF WEAKNESS FROM WHERE BEARS HAD LEFT NIFTY ON TUESDAY END OR A FAILURE ON THE PART OF BULLS TO LIFT NIFTY SPOT TO BREACH AND SUSTAIN ABOVE THE CRITICAL ZONE OF 6040 TO 6044 WILL SEE NIFTY AGAIN FALLING TOWARDS PSYCHOLOGICAL LEVEL OF 6000 FOLLOWED BY 5988 TO 5980 SUSTAINING BELOW WHICH WILL PUSH THE BULLS SOUTH TOWARDS 5970 FOLLOWED BY THE CRITICAL FIBO 61.8% LEVEL AROUND 5950 TO 5945 FOR A BOUNCE UPWARDS.

MARKETS FOR TUESDAY 12TH NOVEMBER

NIFTY SPOT CONTINUED WITH ITS DOWNWARD SLIDE FOR THE 5TH CONSECUTIVE DAY & BE SURE IT WILL BE KEPT SUBDUED FOR SOME MORE DAYS TILL THE TIME MOST OF THE MARKET PARTICIPANTS START TO THINK THAT THE BULLISHNESS THAT LED TO DIWALI HIGH OF 6341 WAS A BIG TRAP & THEN TURN OUT TO BE ENTIRELY BEARISH ON INDIAN MARKETS. AS WAS INDICATED FOR MONDAY SPOT NIFTY MADE A LOW OF 6068 AFTER BREACHING THE CRITICAL 6080 BUT WAS MADE TO CLOSE AROUND 6079 AS A PERFECT EXAMPLE OF INDEX MANAGEMENT. HOWEVER NIFTY STILL LOOKS WEAK AS LONG AS IT REMAINS BELOW 6288 AND WILL INVITE MONSTROUS SHORTING ON EVERY BIG INTRADAY RISE TOWARDS THE PREVIOUS DAYS HIGHS.

FOR INTRADAY TRADING ON MONDAY, SPOT NIFTY HAS INITIAL RESISTANCE AROUND 6110 AND A FAILURE TO BREACH AND MORE IMPORTANTLY A FAILURE TO SUSTAIN ABOVE 6110 WILL SEE POWER SHORTS RESUMING. HOWEVER IF SPOT NIFTY SUSTAINS ABOVE 6110 TO 6116 THEN EXPECT INITIAL BOUT OF SHORT COVERING TO PROPEL IT TOWARDS 6126 FOLLOWED BY 6145 TO 6150 LEVELS . A BREACH TO SUSTAIN ABOVE 6126 TO 6130 WILL SEE THE 2ND BOUT OF SHORT COVERING BY THE WEAKER HANDS TO PUSH NIFTY TOWARDS 6145 TO 6150. SUSTAINING ABOVE 6162 SPOT MAY SEE MUCH HIGHER LEVELS AS BULLISH MOMENTUM IS LIKELY RESUME AT LEAST TEMPORARILY.

SIMILARLY ON THE LOWER SIDE, A BREACH OF MONDAY’S LOW OF 6068 SPOT WILL SEE BULLS RUNNING AWAY THAT MAY PULL DOWN NIFTY SPOT INITIALLY TOWARDS 6055. SUSTAINING BELOW 6055 TO 6050 ZONE TO HAVE A CANDLE CLOSE BELOW IT MAY SEND SHOCK WAVES FOR THE REMAINING BULLS THAT MAY SEE SPOT NIFTY QUICKLY SLIDING TOWARDS 6040 FOLLOWED BY THE CRITICAL LOW OF 6033 TO STRAIGHT DIVE TOWARDS 6020 TO 6015 ZONE. THE AREA AROUND 6020 IS THE AREA OF 50% RETRACEMENT FROM 1ST OCTOBER LOW OF 5701 TILL DIWALI HIGH OF 6341. AROUND 6020 ALSO REMAINS THE CRITICAL 50 DAY EMA THAT SHOULD SEE A SPRING ACTION BOUNCE WHICH INTRADAY BULLS MAY TAKE FULL ADVANTAGE OF.

MARKETS FOR FRIDAY 8TH NOVEMBER

NIFTY TESTED THE CRITICAL 61.8% AROUND 6181 AS WAS MENTIONED YESTERDAY & HAVING CLOSED AROUND THE LOW OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, STILL LOOKS VERY WEAK. SO FOR INTRADAY TRADING PURPOSE IN CASE SPOT NIFTY DOES NOT SHOW A BOUNCE THEN JUST CLOSE THE EYES AND BOLDLY SHORT FOR VERY GOOD GAINS. EVEN IF THERE IS A DECEPTIVE RISE, AS LONG AS SPOT NIFTY FAILS TO SUSTAIN ABOVE 6212 KEEP ON HOLDING THE SHORTS WITH STOP LOSS ABOVE 6212 TO 6220 SPOT ZONE TO REVERSE FOR TRADING LONG ABOVE 6212 TO 6220 SPOT ZONE.
IN CASE SPOT NIFTY FAILS TO STAY ABOVE 6212 TO 6220 ZONE, FURTHER SLIDE MAY BE EXPECTED TO BREACH THURSDAY’S LOWS OF 6180 TO SLIDE TOWARDS 6160 FOLLOWED BY 6144 OR EVEN BEAR PRESSURE CAN TAKE IT FURTHER DOWN TOWARDS 6116 SPOT LEVELS. HOWEVER IF THURSDAY’S LOWS OF 6180 HOLDS AND SPOT NIFTY SUSTAINS ABOVE 6212 TO 6220 THEN EXPECT HIGHER LEVELS OF 6225 FOLLOWED BY 6255 TO EYE TOWARDS 6300 WHICH ALMOST LOOKS IMPOSSIBLE ON FRIDAY, MAY BE IT CAN HAPPEN NEXT WEEK.

MARKETS FOR WEDNESDAY 6TH NOVEMBER

NIFTY SPOT MADE A HIGH OF 6341 ON DIWALI MUHURAT TRADING AND THIS HIGH OF SPOT AT 6341 AND THE FUTURE HIGH OF 6382 ONLY REMAINED THE HIGH FOR THE OPENING SECOND ONLY. THUS THE EARLIER 2ND HIGHEST POINT OF NIFTY AT 6338 ON DIWALI NIGHT OF 5TH NOV 2010 IS NOW REPLACED BY 6341 OF 3RD NOV 2013 AND THE LIFE TIME HIGH OF 6357 SPOT OF 8TH JANUARY 2008 CONTINUES TO ENJOY THE HONORS TILL IT IS BREACHED AFTER A FEW DAYS OF CORRECTION THAT HAS STARTED FROM TUESDAY 5TH NOVEMBER RIGHT ON THE FIRST TRADING DAY AFTER THE DIWALI HIGH.

ON TUESDAY NIFTY SPOT MADE A HIGH OF 6303 TO FALL TOWARDS THE END TO CLOSE AROUND 6253 NEAR THE LOWEST POINT OF THE DAY. THE CHART PATTERN SUGGESTS FURTHER FALLS IN NIFTY TO RETRACE SOME OF THE BIG GAINS MADE DURING LAST WEEK THAT ENCOURAGES INTRADAY TRADERS TO CONFIDENTLY TRADE SHORT ON INTRADAY RISE OF NIFTY AS LONG AS SPOT NIFTY SUSTAINS BELOW 6292 TO REVERSE FOR LONGS ONLY ABOVE 6292 SPOT. IN CASE THE LOW OF TUESDAY AROUND 6244 IS BREACHED AND SPOT NIFTY SUSTAINS BELOW IT THEN EXPECT FURTHER FALLS TOWARDS 6216 FOLLOWED BY 6200 TO FALL FURTHER TOWARDS 6171 BEFORE A BOUNCE.

SIMILARLY ON THE HIGHER SIDE, IF THE FALL ON TUESDAY IS JUST ENOUGH IN ADVANCE OR IF NIFTY MANAGES TO MOVE UP AND SUSTAIN ABOVE 6272 SPOT LEVELS THEN ONE MAY EXPECT IT TO MOVE UP TO CONTEST THE IMPORTANT RESISTANCE BETWEEN 6286 TO 6292 TO TRIGGER MASSIVE SHORT COVERING TO MOVE UP TOWARDS 6300 OR EVEN 6313 SPOT LEVELS TO SEE INITIATION OF FURTHER SHORTS FROM HERE. ONE SHOULD EXPECT A CORRECTION OF A DAY OR TWO MORE BEFORE THE UP MOVE RESUMES POSSIBLY FROM THURSDAY AT THE BEST. A HEAVY PREMIUM OF AROUND 50 POINTS FOR NIFTY FUTURE OVER SPOT NIFTY ALTHOUGH LOOKS ATTRACTIVE TO HOLD LONGS YET IS HIGHLY DECEPTIVE & IS VULNERABLE TO BIGGER FALLS.