NIFTY DURING LAST WEEK, MOVED EXACTLY AS PER THE EXPECTATIONS AND MADE IT THE 2ND CONSECUTIVE WEEK OF LOWER CLOSING . ALTHOUGH THE WEEK SAW NIFTY SPOT MAKING A LOW OF 5169 & A HIGH OF 5257 & MOVED WITHIN A TIGHT BAND OF 88 POINTS FOR THE ENTIRE WEEK, YET THE WEEKLY CLOSING AT 5205 SPOT LOWER THAN THE CRITICAL 5217 WHICH WAS THE LOW OF THE PREVIOUS WEEK THREATENS FURTHER FALLS DURING THE COMING EXPIRY WEEK AS HE OPERATORS ARE DETERMINED TO HAVE NIFTY CLOSING CERTAINLY BELOW 5300 MARK
AND MOST LIKELY WILL HAVE THE EXPIRY BELOW THE 5200 MARK TOWARDS 5150 OR EVEN 5100 NIFTY LEVELS.
MOST OF THE MOVES DURING THE COMING EXPIRY WEEK WILL BE OPERATOR DRIVEN & ONE SHOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE MOST OF THE PRICE MOVEMENT COMING IN THE FORM OF GAP DOWN OR GAP UP THUS LEAVING HARDLY ANY SPACE FOR TRADERS TO MAKE MUCH MONEY DURING THE DAY TRADING. HOWEVER ANY INTRADAY RISE CAN BE CONFIDENTLY SHORTED AS LONG AS SPOT NIFTY CONTINUES TO SUSTAIN BELOW THE EARLIER GIVEN LEVEL OF 5252 TO 5267 ZONE ABOVE WHICH ONLY ONE MAY REVERSE TO GO LONG.
FOR THE COMING WEEK, THE WEEKLY SUPPORT LINE JOINING THE WEEKLY LOWS OF WEEK ENDING 15TH JUNE & 22ND JUNE PASSES AROUND 5200 TO 5205 SPOT LEVELS. A BREACH OF THIS WEEKLY SUPPORT LINE WHICH IS VERY MUCH ON THE CARDS WILL CERTAINLY RING DANGER BELLS FOR THE BULLS AND A WEEKLY CLOSE BELOW THIS SUPPORT LINE WILL CERTAINLY OPEN THE FLOOD GATES FOR MUCH LOWER LEVELS TOWARDS THE EARLIER MENTIONED 38.2% FIBO LEVEL OF 5127 COUNTED FROM THE 4TH JUNE SWING LOW OF 4770 TO 10TH JULY SWING HIGH OD 5348. SO, ALL IN ALL AFTER THE MEGA BULLISH JUNE MONTH AND FIVE CONSECUTIVE WEEKS OF BULLISH CLOSINGS, NIFTY IS NOW ALL SET FOR THE 3RD CONSECUTIVE WEEK OF NEGATIVE CLOSINGS.
IN THE WEEKLY CHARTS OF SPOT NIFTY THE TRIO OF CRITICAL 13, 20 AND 34 WEEK EMAS ARE CONJOINED AROUND 5155 AND A SLIP BELOW THE WEEKLY SUPPORT LINE AROUND 5200 MAY FIND A SECOND LINE OF DEFENSE AROUND THE 5155 SPOT LEVELS TO DELAY THE DOWN SIDE SLIDE OF NIFTY TOWARDS THE LOGICAL 38.2% FIBO LEVEL OF 5127 THAT SHOULD PLEASE THE EXTERNAL OPERATORS WHOSE MAIN AIM IS TO SEE NIFTY SPOT COMING TOWARDS 5150 TO 5100 BEFORE THE EXPIRY. WITH THE DOW OPERATORS PLANNING TO SEE DOW CONTINUE TO FALL FOR SOME MORE DAYS WITH IN-BETWEEN UP DAY TO TRAP ASIAN MARKETS, INDIAN MARKETS ARE TILTED MORE TOWARDS DOWN SIDE.
THE DAILY CHARTS ALSO LOOK WEAK WITH NIFTY SPOT HAVING MADE 12 RED CANDLES OUT OF A TOTAL OF 15 TRADING DAYS IN THE MONTH OF JULY, CLEARLY DEPICTING THAT EVEN AFTER A HIGHER OPENING, THE OPERATORS ARE PULLING DOWN THE MARKETS WHICH WILL CONTINUE TILL THE JULY MONTH EXPIRY IS OVER ON 26TH JULY. THE DAILY 200 DAY AS WELL AS THE 50 DAY EMA ARE TIGHTLY HELD TOGETHER AROUND LAST WEEKS LOWS OF 5169 SUGGESTING THAT A BREACH OR MORE IMPORTANTLY DAILY CLOSE BELOW THE 200 & 50 DAY EMA COMBO LEVEL OF 5169 SPOT LEVELS WILL HELP TO ACHIEVE THE FINAL AIM OF THE EXTERNAL OPERATORS TO GENERATE THE REQUIRED AMOUNT OF PANIC TO WEED OUT THE ENTIRE BUNCH OF WEAKER HANDS THAT MAY EVEN SEE NIFTY SPOT SLIDING TOWARDS THE 38.2% FIBO LEVEL OF 5127.
MOST OF THE DAILY INDICATORS ALTHOUGH ARE NOT AT ALARMING LEVELS, YET ARE INDICATING SLOW , CHURNING AND PROTRACTED DOWN MOVE SUGGESTING TRADERS TO WAIT & WAIT FOR AN INTRADAY RISE TO BOLDLY SHORT THE MARKETS AS LONG AS SPOT NIFTY CONTINUES TO TRADE BELOW 5267. WITH ‘A’ DOWN WAVE FROM THE SWING HIGH OF 5348 TILL THE LOW OF 5169, ‘B’ UP TILL 19TH JULY HIGH OF 5258. A SLIDE OF SPOT NIFTY BELOW 5169 WILL CONFIRM THE ‘C’ DOWN SWING OF THE A, B & C ZIGZAG CORRECTION THAT WILL CERTAINLY SEE SPOT NIFTY SLIDING TOWARDS 38.2% FIBO SUPPORT OF 5127 OR EVEN TOWARDS THE 50% SUPPORT OF 5060 SPOT LEVELS. ONLY IN CASE IN CASE ‘B’ HIGH AROUND 5248 IS BREACHED THEN THERE IS EVERY POSSIBILITY FOR SPOT NIFTY BREACHING THE NEXT RESISTANCE OF 5267 TO MOVE UP IN THE GAP TOWARDS THE 11 JULY LOW OF 5300.
IN SPITE OF ALL THE GLOOM & DOOM, EVERYTHING IS NOT AT ALL OVER FOR THE DEPRESSED BULLS. IN CASE THE BULLS CAN MAKE A COORDINATED PLOT TO LIFT NIFTY SPOT ABOVE THE CRITICAL INTRADAY LEVEL OF 5232 THEN BY THE MERE STRENGTH OF SHORT COVERING BY THE SHIVERING BEARS, ONE MAY SEE NIFTY SPOT GETTING PROPELLED TOWARDS THE NEXT RESISTANCE OF 5252 ABOVE WHICH EVEN HARD CORE BEARS TOGETHER WITH THE OPERATORS MAY START TO THINK WHETHER TO WAIT FOR THE UPSIDE BREACH OF 5267 OR START COVERING THE SHORTS FROM ABOVE THE 5252 LEVELS. IN ANY CASE IF AT ALL THE BREACH OF ANY RESISTANCE OR SUPPORT HAS TO COME IT WILL COME THROUGH A WELL COORDINATED OPERATOR ACTION OF GAP UP OR GAP DOWN MOVE & VERY RARELY IT WILL BE THROUGH ACTUAL TRADING DURING THE DAY.
FOR INTRADAY TRADING ON MONDAY, THE CLOSURE OF SPOT NIFTY AROUND 5205 ON FRIDAY WHICH IS MUCH BELOW THURSDAYS LOW OF 5233, INABILITY OF SPOT NIFTY TO SUSTAIN ABOVE THE 20 DMA & SLIP BELOW THE 20 DMA AROUND 5240, WEAKNESS IN THE DAILY INDICATORS TOGETHER WITH THE OPERATORS ACTION TO PULL DOW DOWN ON FRIDAY TO TRAP ASIAN WHIPPING BOYS ON MONDAY MORNING ARE ALL POINTERS TOWARDS A WEAKER OPENING FOR INDIAN MARKETS. BUT HOLD ON, WHEN EVERYTHING LOOKS WELL POISED FOR A PARTICULAR DIRECTION THEN THE OPERATORS JUST DO THE OPPOSITE AND MAKE MONEY & THIS LIKELY OPERATORS CONTRA ACTION ENCOURAGES ONE TO TAKE FULL ADVANTAGE OF ANY GAP DOWN OPEN TO TRADE LONG IN CASE THE GAP DOWN IS NEARING THE SUPPORT LEVEL OF 5186 LEVELS.
SUSTAINING BELOW THE SPOT LEVEL OF 5186 WILL HANDOVER A FREE DIVING TICKET TOWARDS THE LAST WEEKS LOWS OF 5169 ON THE VERY FIRST DAY OF THE EXPIRY WEEK WILL ENSURE THAT A LOWER WEEKLY LOW HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED. HOWEVER AS LONG AS SPOT NIFTY DOES NOT FALL TO BREACH THE CRITICAL LEVEL OF 5155 TO 5150, ONE SHOULD NOT PANIC AND IN FACT BUY FOR QUICK GAINS WITH STOP LOSS BELOW SPOT NIFTY LEVEL OF 5150. SPOT NIFTY RISING TO SUSTAIN ABOVE 5230 WILL BE A BOOSTER DOSE FOR THE WEAKER BULLS WHO ARE SHIVERING SINCE FRIDAY.
SIMILARLY NIFTY FUTURE TRADERS MAY TRADE LONG FOR QUICK GAINS IN CASE THE DOW INDUCED GAP DOWN IS NOT FAR BELOW 5195 EVEN THOUGH SUSTAINING BELOW 5205 WILL THREATEN THE WEAKER BULLS. IN CASE NIFTY FUTURES SLIDES BELOW 5200 TO 5195 ZONE TO SUSTAIN BELOW IT THEN ONE MAY PLAN TO TRADE SHORT TO SEE LAST WEEKS LOWS OF 5177 OR EVEN 5170 FUTURE LEVELS. SIMILARLY ON THE HIGHER SIDE NIFTY FUTURES MUST MOVE AND SUSTAIN ABOVE THE 5232 TO 5240 ZONE TO INDUCE ANY TYPE OF SHORT COVERING BY THE WEAK BEARS. IN CASE BULLS MANAGE TO PUSH NIFTY FUTURE ABOVE 5245 TO 5252 ZONE THEN ONE WILL SEE HEAVY SHORT COVERING THAT MAY LIFT NIFTY FUTURES TOWARDS THE NEXT HIGHER LEVELS OF 5270.
Source:QueensTrade
No comments:
Post a Comment