IT WAS ANOTHER BULLISH WEEK FOR NIFTY MAKING IT THE 3RD CONSECUTIVE WEEK OF HIGHER HIGH, HIGHER LOW & HIGHER CLOSINGS THUS MAINTAINING BOTH THE BIAS & MOMENTUM ON THE BULLISH SIDE. THE TRUNCATED WEEK WITH THE HOLIDAY ON WEDNESDAY 15TH AUG STARTED WITH A BANG WITH BOTH MONDAY & TUESDAY MAKING SUBSTANTIAL GAINS. HOWEVER BOTH THURSDAY & FRIDAY WERE
NEGATIVE DAYS THAT BROUGHT THE WEEKLY CLOSE AT 5366 SPOT NIFTY LEVELS AFTER KISSING THE MYSTERIOUS 5400 MARK ON FRIDAY. PERHAPS THE SMOKE FILLED CAG REPORT WAS WELL TIMED TO PUT A HALT TO NIFTY’S CROSSING OF THE 5400 MARK. TECHNICALLY THE MARKETS CONTINUE TO DELIVER BULLISH SIGNALS THAT SUGGESTS BUY ON DECLINES FOR GOOD PROFITS. ALTHOUGH THE TASTE OF 5400 ON FRIDAY COULD HAVE BROUGHT THE MARKETS DOWN ANY WAY WITH ANOTHER TRUNCATED WEEK AHEAD HAVING MONDAY AS A HOLIDAY, YET IT UNDER NO CIRCUMSTANCES TAKE AWAY THE OVERALL BULLISH NATURE OF THE MARKETS.
THE PRESENT CONDITION OF THE MARKET IS SUCH THAT AT THE WORST CASE IT COULD REMAIN FLAT OR MILD FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE TAKING ANOTHER GRAND LEAP TOWARDS THE NEXT SWING HIGH OF 5499, THE INVERTED HEAD & SOLDER FORMATION AS CAN BE SEEN IN THE CHART ABOVE IS VERY MUCH ACTIVE AND THE BREACH OF THE NECK LINE AROUND 5340 WILL TAKE SPOT NIFTY AT LEAST BY ANOTHER 600 POINTS FROM THE BREAK OUT POINT OF 5340 TOWARDS 5940 EQUAL TO THE DISTANCE FROM THE INVERTED HEAD AT 4770 TO THE POINT 5370 ON THE NECK LINE VERTICALLY ABOVE THE INVERTED HEAD. HOWEVER, BEFORE REACHING THE BARE MINIMUM TARGET OF 5940 NIFTY WILL HAVE LONG HALTS AT 5499, 5630 TO INDUCE A FEELING AT EACH OF THESE MAJOR HALTS THAT BULL PHASE IS OVER & BEAR MARKET HAS STARTED AGAIN . THE TIMING OF REACHING THE INVERTED HEAD & SOLDER TARGET OF 5940 MAY BE DIFFICULT TO PREDICT BUT NIFTY WILL REACH THE TARGET TO EYE FOR NEW LIFE TIME HIGHS ABOVE 6357.
THE INDICATORS IN BOTH THE MONTHLY & WEEKLY CHARTS CONTINUE TO DEPICT ROBUST BULLISH INDICATIONS THAT SHOULD SEE NIFTY MOVING UP & UP FOR MANY MORE WEEKS & MONTHS. WEEKLY MACD MAKING A BULLISH HOOK ABOVE THE NEUTRAL LINE IS A STRONG BULLISH SIGNAL TO SUPPLEMENT THE BREACH OF WEEKLY RESISTANCE LINE COMING FROM 22ND FEBRUARY HIGH OF 5630 & 10TH JULY HIGH OF 5349. SPOT NIFTY’S CLOSING AT 5366 ON FRIDAY ABOVE 5342 THE HIGH OF THE WEEKLY MOTHER CANDLE OF WEEK ENDING 20 APRIL THAT HAD FORMED AN OUT SIDE BAR SET UP, IS A HIGHLY BULLISH SIGNAL IN THE WEEKLY CHARTS TO AIM FOR NEXT SWING HIGH OF 5499. WITH THE WEEKLY BOLLINGER BAND SHOWING EARLY SIGNS OF EXTENDING OUTWARDS THERE IS EVERY POSSIBILITY OF BIG UP MOVE ON THE WAY AFTER THE PAUSE DURING THE COMING WEEK BEING A TRUNCATED WEEK. THE ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS FOR NIFTY EXPLAINED IN THE SIMPLEST OF FORMS & GIVEN BELOW IN THE PARAGRAPHS FOR THE WEEK ENDING 10TH AUGUST IS PERFECTLY WORKING WELL TO SEE MUCH HIGHER LEVELS FOR NIFTY AFTER THE PRESENT PAUSE.
IN THE DAILY CHARTS, FRIDAY BEING A RED DOJI DAY COULD POSSIBLY SUGGEST SOME MORE DAYS OF PAUSE FOR INDIAN MARKETS. HOWEVER AS LONG AS SPOT NIFTY CONTINUES TO TRADE ABOVE THE 20 DAY EMA AROUND 5294 THERE IS NO NEED FOR BULLS TO WORRY ON MINOR INTRADAY SWINGS. A CLOSE BELOW 20 DAY EMA AROUND 5294 MAY PULL NIFTY SPOT TOWARDS THE 6TH AUGUST GAP LOW OF 5261 AROUND THE 34 DAY EMA & THE DAILY PIVOT FROM WHERE BULLS MUST SPRING INTO ACTION AGAIN OR ELSE BEARS WILL RULE REST OF AUGUST. SIMILARLY ON THE HIGHER SIDE A DECISIVE BREACH AND MORE IMPORTANTLY A CLOSE ABOVE THE 22ND MARCH INSIDE & OUT SIDE BAR SETUP HIGH OF 5386 WILL SEE NIFTY SPOT MOVING UP QUICKLY TOWARDS THE NEXT SWING HIGH OF 5499 TO CONFIRM THE ROCKET ACTION AFTER THE BREACH OF THE NECK LINE OF THE INVERTED HEAD & SOLDER FORMATION AS CAN BE SEEN IN THE DAILY CHART ABOVE. SO, OVERALL THE MARKETS CONTINUE TO LOOK BULLISH AND ARE BUBBLING WITH VIGOR FOR MUCH FURTHER UP MOVE THAT ENCOURAGES TRADERS AND INVESTORS TO BUY THE DECLINES FOR VERY GOOD GAINS.
FOR INTRADAY TRADING ON TUESDAY 21ST AUGUST, THE OPENING MAY BE IN LINE WITH REST OF ASIAN MARKETS OR THE OVERNIGHT DOW WHICH MIGHT TAKE A PAUSE OR FALL ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE INITIAL FALL IN NIFTY IF AT ALL IT COMES MAY BE FULLY USED TO BUY THE DECLINES AS LONG AS SPOT NIFTY SUSTAINS ABOVE THE FRIDAYS DOJI LOW OF 5342. SUSTAINING BELOW THE FRIDAYS DOJI LOW FOR LONGER PERIODS TO HAVE CRITICAL HOURLY OR 30 MINUTE CANDLE CLOSE BELOW 5342 SPOT MAY BE THE EARLY INDICATION OF FURTHER FALLS. HOWEVER A GOOD BOUNCE AFTER BREACHING THE FRIDAYS DOJI LOW OR NOT AT ALL MOVING TOWARDS THE DOJI LOW MAY INDICATE ROBUST BULLISHNESS IN NIFTY FOR MUCH HIGHER LEVELS ABOVE FRIDAYS DOJI HIGH OF 5400 SPOT THAT MAY TRIGGER SHORT COVERING TO PROPEL NIFTY SPOT TOWARDS HIGHER LEVELS OF 5440. THE BREACH OF FRIDAYS HIGH OF 5400 SPOT MAY ALSO TRIGGER A 123 SET UP FOR RAPIT UP MOVE.
FOR TRADERS OF NIFTY FUTURES ON TUESDAY, NIFTY FUTURE FINDS STRONG SUPPORT AROUND 5365 WHICH IS AROUND THE 30 MINUTE LOWER BOLLINGER BAND & ALSO THE LOW OF THE 30 MINUTE TIME FRAME 2.30 P.M. CANDLE THAT HAS FORMED A 2 IN 1 INSIDE BAR SETUP. A CLOSE OF 30 MINUTE CANDLE BELOW 5365 MAY SEE FURTHER FALLS TOWARDS THE FRIDAY’S LOW OF 5352. SIMILARLY ON THE HIGHER SIDE, A CLOSURE OF A 30 MINUTE CANDLE ABOVE THE FUTURE LEVEL OF 5389 THE HIGH OF THE SAME 2 IN 1 INSIDE BAR SETUP OR MORE IMPORTANTLY ABOVE 5394 WILL SEE MASSIVE SHORT COVERING TO PROPEL NIFTY FUTURES TOWARDS FRIDAYS HIGHS OF 5423 SUSTAINING ABOVE WHICH MAY SEE ANOTHER BOUT OF MONSTROUS SHORT COVERING TO TRIGGER ANOTHER 123 BULLISH SETUP TOWARDS 5445 OR 5455 FUTURE LEVELS. INTRADAY FUTURE TRADERS MAY BUY NIFTY FUTURES IN CASE IT FAILS TO BREACH AND SUSTAIN BELOW 5360 TO 5355 FUTURE LEVELS TO REVERSE FOR SHORTS BELOW IT FOR QUICK GAINS. SIMILARLY ONE MAY PLAN TO SHORT IN CASE NIFTY FUTURE FAILS TO BREACH 5405 TO 5410 LEVELS TO REVERSE FOR LONGS ABOVE IT FOR QUICK GAINS.
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