MARKETS FOR 1ST OCTOBER

NIFTY FOR THE WEEK ENDING 28TH SEPT CLOSED AT 5703 COMPARED TO ITS PREVIOUS WEEK’S CLOSING OF 5691. ALTHOUGH  SUCH TYPE OF CLOSING  BY JUST 12 POINTS UP ON A WEEKLY BASIS CAN BE CONSTRUED AS A FLAT CLOSE, YET THE FACT THAT NIFTY MADE A HIGHER WEEKLY HIGH , HIGHER WEEKLY LOW & A HIGHER WEEKLY CLOSING IS A CLEAR INDICATION THAT THE MEGA BULL RUN IS VERY MUCH INTACT AND THE EXPECTED OPERATOR INDUCED FALL  LIKELY TO BE INFLICTED IN OCTOBER SHOULD ENCOURAGE  THE FENCE SITTERS TO BOLDLY BUY FOR LONG TERM AND THE ALREADY LONG POSITION HOLDERS TO ADD ON TO THEIR LONGS ON EVERY DECLINE.

THE DECISIVE BREACH OF THE 22ND FEB SWING HIGH OF 5630 WHICH WAS THE HIGH OF THE 1ST  SUB WAVE OF THE MONSTER 3RD UP WAVE THAT HAD STARTED FROM 20TH  DEC LOW OF 4531 IS A VERY CLEAR INDICATION THAT THE 4TH JUNE LOW OF 4770 ENDING THE 2ND SUB WAVE OF THE 3RD UP WAVE & THE COMMENCEMENT OF THE  3RD SUB WAVE OF THE 3RD UP WAVE FROM THERE WILL MOVE UP TO BREACH THE ALL TIME HIGH OF 6357 TOWARDS MUCH HIGHER LEVELS IN COMING MONTHS. THE PRESENT STRUCTURE OF THE MARKETS IS SUCH THAT EVEN BULLS ARE PRAYING FOR A DECLINE IN THE MARKETS TO ADD TO THEIR LONGS  AND EVERY DECLINE IS GENERATING ACCELERATED UP MOVES THROUGH GAP UPS NOT ALLOWING  FENCE SITTER RETAIL TO ENTER. THE TWO GAPS LEFT DURING THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER AT THE 7TH SEPT LOW OF 5309 &  14 SEPT LOW OF 5527 MAY REMAIN AS THE TWIN GAPS  FOR MANY MANY MORE MONTHS AND YEARS ALTHOUGH THE  GAP FILL WILL STRENGTHEN  NIFTY FOR MUCH HIGHER UP MOVE.

THE UPWARD BREACH OF 200 DAY SMA BY 50 DAY SMA  A DAY AFTER THE MANIPULATED 26TH JULY EXPIRY DAY LOW OF 5032 WHEN NIFTY WAS FORCED TO BREACH BOTH 50 & 200 DAY SMA TO CLOSE BELOW IT  TO ENSURE MASS EXODUS OF WEAKER HANDS FOLLOWED BY THE RISE FROM THE VERY NEXT DAY TO CLOSE ABOVE THE DUO OF 50 & 200 DAY SMA THAT WAS AGAIN FOLLOWED BY THE 50 DMA BREACHING THE 200 DMA AND NOW BOTH THESE CRITICAL DMAS LOOKING UPWARDS ARE CLEAR SIGNS OF MEGA BULLISHNESS AS LONG AS SPOT NIFTY IS NOT PULLED DOWN AGAIN TO CLOSE BELOW THE 50 DMA AROUND 5375 FOLLOWED BY 200 DMA  NOW AROUND 5330. SO, LONG TERM INVESTORS  MAY HOLD ON TO THEIR LONGS AND ADD MORE LONGS ON DECLINES AS LONG AS SPOT NIFTY  CONTINUES TO SUSTAIN ABOVE THESE TWO DMAS & DOES NOT CLOSE BELOW 5300.

THE MONTHLY CHARTS CONTINUE TO LOOK MEGA BULLISH FOR MANY MANY MORE MONTHS OF UP MOVE AND THE OPERATOR DRIVEN PULL DOWN IF AT ALL COMES DURING OCTOBER MONTH WILL STRENGTHEN THE MONTHLY INDICATORS. THE MONSTER MONTHLY GREEN CANDLE OF SEPTEMBER WHICH HAS CLOSED THE MONTH AT 5703 THAT TOO ABOVE THE MONTHLY RESISTANCE LINE JOINING THE  MONTHLY HIGHS OF NOV 2010 AT 6339 & FEB 2012 HIGH OF 5630 TO CLOSE ABOVE IT ON THE SEPTEMBER MONTH END  SHOULD NOT BE TAKEN LIGHTLY BY THE BEARS WHO ARE BANKING ON THE DEVASTATING MONTH OF OCTOBER TO  QUIT THEIR LONG PENDING SHORTS. NIFTY CLOSING THE SEPTEMBER MONTH ABOVE BOTH THE 20 & 34 MONTH MOVING AVERAGES FOR THE FIRST TIME AFTER  JULY  2011 THAT TOO WITH A MONSTER 20/20 MONTHLY BULLISH CANDLE  IS A HIGHLY ENCOURAGING SIGN FOR THE BULLS TO BUY THE DECLINES  FOR GREAT GAINS.

 IF ONE GOES AS PER FACTS,  IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT AFTER THE BULL MARKET ENDING 2000, STARTING FROM THE YEAR 2001 TILL 2011 THE MONTHS OF OCTOBER HAS GIVEN NEGATIVE MONTHLY CLOSING ONLY DURING 2002, 2005, 2008 & 2009 WITH 2010 BEING A FLAT MONTHLY CLOSE. DURING THE REMAINING  YEARS OF 2003, 2004, 2006, 2007, 2011  THE MONTH OF OCTOBER WAS MEGA BULLISH.  VERY INTERESTINGLY OUT OF ALL THE GIVEN  NEGATIVE CLOSING OCTOBER MONTHS, THE OCTOBER MONTHS  OF 2005, 2009, 2010 HAD HIGHER HIGHS THAN THEIR  RESPECTIVE MONTHS OF SEPTEMBER. SO ALL THOSE WHO ARE SCARED OF THE DEVASTATING MONTH OF OCTOBER MAY WAIT A BIT AND SEE HOW THE OPERATORS MANIPULATE THE PRICES DURING THIS MONTH OF OCTOBER. THE MONTHLY MACD HAS FORMED A BULLISH MACD HOOK AROUND THE NEUTRAL LINE THAT SUGGESTS MANY MORE MONTHS OF UP TREND WITH A FEW DAYS OR WEEKS OF PAUSE OR  MILD CORRECTIONS CONFINING TO THE SUB WAVES OF ELLIOTT WAVE, OTHER WISE NOTHING LESS THAN NIFTY 10000 SHOULD BE EXPECTED DURING THE ON GOING BULL RUN.

LIKE THE HIGHLY BULLISH LOOKING MONTHLY CHARTS WHICH HAS VERY STRONG SUPPORT AROUND 5300 NIFTY LEVELS, THE WEEKLY CHARTS ARE NOT LOOKING ANYTHING LESS EITHER. THE WEEKLY STOCH  GETTING ENTANGLED IN THE OVERBOUGHT  ZONE ALTHOUGH GENERATES A FEELING OF OVERBOUGHT CONDITION TO THE NOVICE, YOUNG AND DYNAMIC TRADERS BUT ACTUALLY THIS TYPE OF ENTANGLEMENT OF BOTH THE %K & %D  ABOVE THE 90 LEVELS ARE HIGHLY BULLISH CONTINUATION SIGNALS & TILL SUCH TIME THESE STOOP BELOW THE 70% LEVELS TO INDICATE A PAUSE OR CORRECTION, THE BULL RUN WILL CONTINUE. THE WEEKLY MACD AS CAN BE NOTICED IN THE WEEKLY CHART HAS  MOVED UP FROM BELOW THE NEUTRAL LINE TO ABOVE THE NEUTRAL LINE AND BOTH THE MACD AS WELL AS THE SIGNAL LINE HAVE JOTTED OUT OF THE HISTOGRAM  JUNGLE THAT INDICATED MANY MORE WEEKS OF BULLISHNESS THAT WILL EASILY THWART ANY OPERATOR DRIVEN OR PLANTED NEWS BASED MANIPULATED FALL DURING HE MONTH OF OCTOBER.

AS CAN BE SEEN IN THE WEEKLY CHART THE OUTWARDS EXPANSION OF THE BOLLINGER BANDS ARE HIGHLY BULLISH SIGNALS AND NIFTY CLOSING ABOVE THE UPPER BOLLINGER BAND FOR THREE CONSECUTIVE WEEKS WILL NOW BEND THE LOWER BOLLINGER BAND UPWARDS TO SEE THE PRICE RIDING THE UPWARD LOOKING UPPER BOLLINGER BAND. THE WEEKLY DOJI FORMED FOR THE WEEK ENDING 28TH SEPT WITH ITS HIGH AROUND 5735 & LOW AROUND 5638 WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE FOR THE COMING WEEKS ON A CLOSING BASIS EITHER ABOVE IT OR BELOW IT  TO DECIDE  WHETHER TO SUPPORT THE BULLISH SIGNALS GENERATED BY THE UPWARD CROSS OVER OF THE 20 & 34 WEEK EMAS ABOVE THE 50 WEEK EMA AND THAT TOO ALL THESE EMAS  POINTING UPWARDS OR THESE BUNCH OF EMAS WILL PULL NIFTY DOWN TOWARDS THESE TO REPEL NIFTY AGAIN  UPWARDS AFTER ENJOYING THE SWEET SMELL OF IT, HAS TO BE SEEN DURING THE COMING WEEKS.

THE DAILY CHARTS CONTINUE TO LOOK OVER BOUGHT AND WITH THE MONTHLY AND WEEKLY CHARTS GENERATING MEGA BULLISH SIGNALS THE INDICATORS OF THE DAILY CHARTS HAVE NO OTHER OPTION THAN TO CONTINUE CAMPING IN THE OVER BOUGHT ZONE  TO ENCOURAGE THE BULLS TO BUY THE DECLINES. THE DAILY BOLLINGER BANDS AFTER EXTENDING OUTWARDS  HAVE NOW SEEN THE LOWER BAND TURNING UPWARDS ALLOWING THE PRICE TO RIDE THE UPWARD EXTENDING UPPER BAND. THUS ANY PAUSE OR EXTERNALLY INDUCED CORRECTION FOR  A WEEK OR FEW DAYS TO THWART THE MEGA BULLISH ANNOUNCEMENT BY THE GOVT ARE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR GOING LONG AND ADDING MORE LONGS TO THE EXISTING ONES TO RIDE THE MEGA BULL RUN.

FOR INTRADAY TRADING ON MONDAY 1ST OCTOBER  ONE SHOULD NOT EXPECT ANY FIRE WORKS ON MONDAY WHICH MAY ONLY BE CONFINED TO PRE OPENING 15 MINUTES WITH THE SUPPORT OF SERIOUS RUNNING COMMENTARY DELIVERED BY THE OLD FINANCIAL CHANNELS TO MAKE THE PRE MARKET SESSION LOOK ALIVE. THE FRIDAY NIGHT FALL IN DOW BY NEARLY 50 POINTS WILL STRENGTHEN THE HANDS OF HIGHLY OPERATOR INFECTED SGX NIFTY TO PULL SGX NIFTY DOWN BEFORE THE OPENING OF INDIAN MARKETS TO INDUCE A NEGATIVE OPENING. SOME OF THE ASIAN WHIPPING BOYS OF DOW OPERATORS WILL BE MADE TO LOOK WEAK DURING THE INITIAL HOUR WHICH MAY ALSO ADD ITS QUOTA OF MISERY FOR THE INDIAN MARKETS IN THE BEGINNING. WITH THE HOLIDAY ON TUESDAY & NIFTY HAVING CLOSED ON FRIDAY IN THE FORM OF AN INVERTED HAMMER  MAY ENCOURAGE THE OPERATORS TO HAVE A WEAK OPENING FOR NIFTY SO THAT THE WEAKER HANDS ARE DRIVEN OUT FEARING WHAT WOULD HAPPEN TO WORLD MARKETS WHEN INDIA WILL BE ENJOYING THE HOLIDAY ON TUESDAY.

SPOT NIFTY HAVING CLOSED AROUND THE LOWEST POINT OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY MAY ENCOURAGE OPERATORS TO PULL NIFTY A BIT FURTHER DOWN TO BREACH FRIDAY’S OPENING GAP LOW OF 5687 THAT WILL DRIVE AWAY ANOTHER BATCH OF WEAKER HANDS . HOWEVER AFTER ENTERING FRIDAY’S GAP LOW BELOW 5687, IF BULLS CAN MANAGE TO RE ENTER AND HAVE A 30 MINUTE OR HOURLY CANDLE CLOSE ABOVE THE 5700 OR ABOVE FRIDAYS CLOSING OF 5703, THEN ONE MAY SEE THE RE-ENTRY OF WEAKER HANDS COUPLED WITH MASSIVE SHORT COVERING BY THE INTRADAY BEARS AS IN THAT CASE THERE WILL BE EVERY POSSIBILITY OF SPOT NIFTY MOVING UP TO RETEST OR EVEN BREACH FRIDAYS HIGHS OF 5735 SPOT. A CLOSURE OF A 30 MINUTE CANDLE ABOVE 5725  WILL SEE FURTHER SHORT COVERING BY THE BEARS TO PROPEL SPOT NIFTY TOWARDS BREACHING THE FRIDAYS HIGHS OF 5735 TO MOVE UP FURTHER TOWARDS 5750 LEVELS ALTHOUGH CLOSING OF SPOT NIFTY ABOVE THE EARLIER MENTIONED RESISTANCE OF 8TH JULY HIGH OF 5740 MAY BE A BIT TOUGH  WITH THE HOLIDAY ON TUESDAY SITTING ON BULLS’ HEAD.

FOR INTRADAY TRADING OF NIFTY FUTURES ON MONDAY THAT HAD CLOSED AROUND 5725 ON FRIDAY, ONE WILL FIND NIFTY FUTURES SHOOTING UP BY THE MERE STRENGTH OF SHORT COVERING SHOULD THE BULLS MANAGE TO KEEP NIFTY FUTURES ABOVE 5752 FOR A FEW MINUTES TO HAVE A 30 MINUTE CANDLE CLOSE ABOVE IT. A FAILURE ON THE PART OF BULLS TO ACHIEVE THIS SIMPLE TASK OF SUSTAINING ABOVE THE 5752 FUTURE LEVELS WILL DEFINITELY STRENGTHEN THE BEARS TO GO ON A SHORTING RAMPAGE BY HAVING THE STOP LOSS ABOVE 5755 TO 5760 FUTURE LEVELS. NIFTY FUTURES SUSTAINING ABOVE 5757 TO 5760 LEVELS WILL SEE THE SECOND BATCH OF SHORT COVERING TO PROPEL NIFTY FUTURES TOWARDS MUCH HIGHER LEVELS SURPASSING FRIDAY’S FUTURES HIGHS OF 5766.

SIMILARLY ON THE LOWER SIDE, NIFTY FUTURE HAS STRONG SUPPORT AROUND FRIDAYS  OPENING GAP LOWS OF 5717  TO 5711 FOLLOWED BY THE PSYCHOLOGICAL LEVEL OF 5700. SUSTAINING BELOW 5700, NIFTY FUTURE MAY SLIDE  TOWARDS 5690 TO 5685 BELOW WHICH BULLS  WILL START TO RUN  AS THE BEARS WILL HOLD THE TAILS OF THE BULLS BY ONE HAND AND WHIP THE BULLS LEFT RIGHT AND CENTRE BY THE OTHER HAND & CHASE THE BULLS DOWN THE ROAD TO SEE BULLS RUNNING DOWN TO JOIN THEIR WAITING FRIENDS AROUND  5666 FUTURE LEVELS  TO BOUNCE BACK AGAIN. WITH THE HOLIDAY ON TUESDAY AND DOW MOST LIKELY BEING PREPARED BY ITS MANIPULATORS FOR A SLIDE, IT IS WISER FOR VERY SHORT TERM LONG POSITION  HOLDERS TO HEDGE BY SHORTING SOME CALLS OF NIFTY 5800, OTHER WISE MARKETS STILL LOOK BULLISH AND MINOR CORRECTIONS HERE & THERE SHOULD NOT BOTHER THE LONG HOLDERS WHO IN FACT SHOULD USE THE OPERATORS’ ORCHESTRATED  SLIDE TO ADD TO THEIR LONG POSITIONS .

Source: Queens Trade

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