WEEKLY ANALYSIS FOR WEEK ENDING 11 JAN

AS WAS PREDICTED EARLIER, NIFTY SPOT  BROKE OUT OF THE 4TH SUB WAVE FLAT WHICH WAS FORMED DURING THE ENTIRE MONTH OF DECEMBER  WITH THE DECEMBER MONTH HIGH OF 5965 ON 11TH DECEMBER  & LOW OF 5823 ON 18TH DECEMBER. THE BREAKOUT OF THE UPPER CHANNEL OF THIS FLAT CAN EASILY TAKE NIFTY SPOT TOWARDS 6100 OR HIGHER LEVELS AS CAN BE SEEN IN THE TWO HOURLY CHART OF SPOT NIFTY ABOVE.

AS HAS BEEN EXPLAINED IN THE ELLIOTT WAVE BELOW THE COMPLETION OF THE 4TH SUB SUB WAVE FLAT AROUND THE 18TH DECEMBER 2012 LOW OF 5823 AND ITS SUBSEQUENT UP MOVE AS THE 5TH SUB SUB WAVE OF THE MONSTER 3RD SUB WAVE OF THE 3RD MAJOR UP WAVE SHOULD TAKE NIFTY SPOT TOWARDS THE NEW LIFE TIME HIGHS. GENERALLY THE 5TH WAVE MOVES  SIMILAR LIN SIZE AS THE 1ST WAVE. THE 1ST SUB SUB WAVE OF THE PRESENT MONSTER 3RD UP SUB WAVE HAD STARTED FROM 4TH JUNE LOW OF 4770 & HAD MOVED UP TILL 10TH JULY HIGH OF 5348,
A TOTAL OF 578 POINTS. NOW ADDING THIS 578 POINTS FROM THE 18TH DECEMBER 4TH SUB WAVE LOW OF 5823, ONE MAY EXPECT THE PRESENT UP SWING SHOULD TAKE NIFTY SPOT TOWARDS 6400 SPOT NIFTY LEVELS TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER MUCH BIGGER 4TH SUB WAVE FLAT OF THE 3RD MAJOR UP WAVE .

FOR THE WEEK ENDING 4TH JANUARY, SPOT NIFTY HAD CLOSED AT 6016 COMPARED TO ITS PREVIOUS WEEK ENDING 28TH DECEMBER CLOSING OF 5908 A RISE OF NEARLY 2% ON A WEEK ON WEEK BASIS . SPOT NIFTY ALSO CLOSED HIGHER THAN  THE HIGHS OF ITS PREVIOUS THREE WEEKS WHICH WAS AT 4TH DECEMBER HIGH OF 5965. THIS CONFIRMS THE BREAK OUT OF THE DECEMBER MONTH 4TH SUB SUB WAVE FLAT TOWARDS MUCH HIGHER LEVELS THAT SHOULD ENCOURAGE  TRADERS AND INVESTORS TO  MAKE FULL USE OF THE INTRADAY OR A FEW DAYS OF FLAT OR DECLINES TO BOLDLY BUY AND HOLD FOR VERY GOOD GAINS.

AS LONG AS SPOT NIFTY DOES NOT CLOSE BELOW THE SPOT NIFTY  ZONE OF 5949 TO 5929 FOR TWO TO THREE DAYS, THERE SHOULD BE ABSOLUTELY NO FEAR IN THE MINDS OF  SHORT TERM TRADERS WHO ARE MAINTAINING LONG POSITIONS ON EVERY DECLINE. SIMILARLY FOR MEDIUM TO LONG TERM INVESTORS, AS LONG AS SPOT NIFTY DOES NOT HAVE A WEEKLY CLOSE BELOW THE CRITICAL SPOT LEVEL OF 5848 THERE SHOULD BE NO FEAR AND EVERY DECLINE TOWARDS IT IS A GREAT BUYING OPPORTUNITY FOR FABULOUS LONG TERM GAINS DURING THE PRESENT ON GOING BULL MARKET WHICH IS NOT EVEN HALF WAY THROUGH.

FOR THE COMING WEEK EXPECT THE BREAK OUT UP MOVE TO CONTINUE FOR NEXT FEW DAYS TO SEE SOME PROFIT BOOKING TOWARDS THE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. THE FMCG COMPANIES WHICH HAVE FALLEN FOR LAST TWO TO THREE WEEKS MAY SEE GOOD RISE DURING THE COMING WEEK OR WHEN NIFTY STARTS TO PAUSE. IRRESPECTIVE OF ANY AMOUNT OF RISE, SPOT NIFTY WILL FIND  WEEKLY OR EVEN MONTHLY RESISTANCE AROUND 4TH JANUARY 2011 HIGH OF 6181 TO SEE A MILD CORRECTION BEFORE CROSSING THIS LEVEL.

AFTER THE PAUSE OR CORRECTION BEFORE BREACHING 6181, NIFTY SPOT WILL MOVE UP IN LIGHTENING SPEED TO BREACH THE ALL TIME HIGHS OF 6357, REACHED DURING 1ST WEEK OF JANUARY 2008. HOWEVER BEFORE DECISIVELY BREACHING THIS EARLIER HIGH OF 6357, THERE WILL BE PITCHED BATTLE  LASTING FOR DAYS & WEEKS AROUND 6300 AND 5TH NOV 2010 DIWALI DOUBLE HEAD HIGH OF 6338. BUT ONE SHOULD BE ABSOLUTELY SURE IN HIS MIND THAT THE PRESENT BULL CYCLE HAS TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF BULL POWER STORED IN IT TO TAKE NIFTY ABOVE THE 8000 MARK BEFORE THE NEXT MAJOR DOWN CYCLE STARTS. SO MAKE FULL USE OF THE DECLINE TO RIDE THE MEGA BULL RUN.

SUPPORT FOR THE COMING WEEK ARE 5981, A DECISIVE CLOSE  BELOW WHICH ONE MAY TRADE SHORT FOR GOOD SHORT TERM GAINS. FURTHER SHORTS MAY BE ADDED IN CASE SPOT NIFTY HAS SIMILAR SLIP BELOW 5935. THE SUPPORT LINE COMING FROM 20TH NOV 2012  LOW OF 5548 AND HAVING PROVIDED SUPPORT TO THE 4TH SUB SUB WAVE FLAT AROUND 5823, 5850 ,5900 UNDER NORMAL CIRCUMSTANCES WILL NOT ALLOW SPOT NIFTY TO BREACH 5964 TO 5950 ZONE. ONLY A FALL TO CLOSE BELOW THIS SUPPORT LINE MAY SEE A SHORT TERM DECLINE FOR SPOT NIFTY. BELOW THIS SUPPORT LINE, THE EXTENDED UPPER CHANNEL OF THE FLAT ALSO WILL ACT AS A BOUNCING BACK POINT FOR SPOT NIFTY.

SIMILARLY ON HE HIGHER SIDE,  6060 IS THE IMMEDIATE RESISTANCE FOR SPOT NIFTY TO DECISIVELY BREACH AND SUSTAIN ABOVE IT TO SIGNAL MASSIVE SHORT COVERING THAT MAY PROPEL SPOT NIFTY TOWARDS 6100 OR HIGHER LEVELS. ON BREACHING AND SUSTAINING ABOVE 6100 SPOT LEVELS, THERE IS A BLANK SPACE TILL 6181 WHICH MAY BE TOUGH TO BREACH EASILY AND INDIAN MARKETS REQUIRE BUDGET PUSH TO BREACH THIS HURDLE OF 6181 ALTHOUGH RBI GOVERNOR’S SURPRISE HEFTY RATE CUTS IN LAST WEEK OF JANUARY  MAY  GENERATE HOPES OF BREACHING THIS CRITICAL SPOT NIFTY LEVEL OF 6181.

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