WEEKLY ANALYSIS FOR WEEK ENDING 24TH MAY

IT WAS ANOTHER TRIUMPHANT WEEK FOR NIFTY AS IT MADE THE 5TH CONSECUTIVE WEEK OF BULLISH CLOSING. WHAT IS MORE INTERESTING THAT EACH OF THESE 5 BULLISH WEEKS HAD NIFTY CLOSING ABOVE THE HIGH OF THE PREVIOUS  WEEK CONFIRMING TO THE MEGA BULLISHNESS THAT NIFTY HAS BEEN DISPLAYING AFTER MAKING THE  10TH APRIL SWING LOW OF 5477. NIFTY’S  CLOSING THIS WEEK AT 6187 &  DECISIVELY CLOSING HIGH ABOVE THE EARLIER 29TH JANUARY 2013 SWING HIGH OF 6111 AND ALSO ABOVE THE CRITICAL 4TH JANUARY 2011 SWING HIGH OF 6181 LEAVES THE BULLS WITH VERY HIGH MORAL TO LOOK FOR THE CRITICAL RESISTANCE LINE AROUND 6323 JOINING THE VERY IMPORTANT RESISTANCES OF 6357 & 6338 AS CAN BE SEEN IN THE LONG TERM MONTHLY CHART.

ALTHOUGH THERE IS EVERY POSSIBILITY OF A TOOTH & NAIL FIGHT BETWEEN THE BULLS & THE BEARS  TO GAIN SUPREMACY AROUND THIS ALL IMPORTANT RESISTANCE LINE, BUT BE ABSOLUTELY SURE THAT  LIKE THE EARLIER BULL MARKETS, THIS TIME ALSO THIS CRITICAL RESISTANCE LINE WILL BE BREACHED AROUND 6323 TO CROSS 6338 FOLLOWED BY THE BREACH OF EARLIER LIFE TIME HIGH OF 6357 TOWARDS A NEW LIFE TIME HIGH TO COMPLETE THE 1ST UP SUB LEG OF 3RD MAJOR UP WAVE. THIS IS
THE RIGHT TIME FOR THE BULLS TO BASH ON REGARDLESS TO BREACH THE RESISTANCE LINE AROUND 6323 TO EYE FOR 6357 FAILING WHICH THEY SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR MERCILESS HAMMERING  REMINDING THEM OF THE EARLIER WHIPPING THE BULLS HAD RECEIVED WHEN THEY HAD FAILED TO LIFT NIFTY ABOVE 6338 AFTER THE DIWALI NIGHT OF 5TH NOVEMBER 2010 AS CAN BE SEEN IN THE CHART.

HOWEVER IF THE BULLS CAN MANAGE TO CLOSE NIFTY ABOVE THE RESISTANCE LINE OF 6323 OR  MORE IMPORTANTLY ABOVE 6338 THEN ONE CAN SEE THE SHARPEST UP MOVE IN INDIAN MARKETS NEVER SEEN EARLIER THAT MAY SEE NIFTY CATCHING UP WITH THE US , EUROPEAN , SOME SOUTH EAST ASIAN MARKETS WHICH ARE MAKING NEW LIFE TIME HIGHS DAY AFTER DAY. THE SUPPORT LINE JOINING THE CRITICAL LOWS OF 2252,2539,4531,4770 & 5477 WILL BE TOUGH TO BREACH ON THE DOWN SIDE & THIS SUPPORT LINE NOW  AROUND 5500+ NIFTY LEVELS MAY CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LONG TERM SUPPORT TO NIFTY FOR MANY MANY YEARS TILL THE END OF THIS BULL MARKET POSSIBLY INTO THE YEAR 2016 WHEN NIFTY POSSIBLY COULD BE FLOATING AROUND 12000+ LEVELS. TRUSTING THE INDICATORS IN THE LONG TERM CHARTS ALONG WITH THE PRESENT POSITION OF  ELLIOTT WAVES, ONE MUST BE PREPARED TO SEE A MEGA BLAST OFF IN INDIAN MARKETS. WELL CORRECTIONS & RETRACEMENTS WILL COME BUT THESE ARE TO BE USED AS GOD SENT OPPORTUNITIES TO BUY AND BUY ONLY BY THE  MEDIUM TO LONG TERM INVESTORS TO RIDE THE MEGA BULL RUN FOR GREAT GAINS IN NEAR FUTURE.

TECHNICALLY THE CHARTS STILL LOOK HIGHLY BULLISH. IN THE MONTHLY CHARTS , THE CANDLE OF JANUARY 2013 WAS THE TRIGGER CANDLE TO THE 7TH NRB MONTHLY DOJI CANDLE OF DECEMBER 2012 WHOSE HIGH WAS 5965 & LOW WAS 5823. THE DECISIVE BREACH OF THE LOW OF THE TRIGGER CANDLE HAD TAKEN NIFTY DOWN TILL 10TH APRIL LOW OF 5477 TO BOUNCE UP EXACTLY FROM THE 34 MONTHLY SMA. LAST WEEK NIFTY HAVING REACHED TILL 6200 & HAVING CLOSED AT 6187 HAS BREACHED THE HIGH OF THE MONTHLY TRIGGER BAR AT 6111 AND HAS CLOSED ABOVE IT. A MONTHLY CLOSE ABOVE 6111 THE HIGH OF THE TRIGGER CANDLE OF JANUARY 2013 NEXT TO THE MONTHLY 7TH NRB CANDLE OF DECEMBER 2012, CAN SEE MUCH HIGHER LEVELS ABOVE THE 8TH JANUARY 2008 HIGH OF 6357. THE MONTHLY MACD HAVING FORMED A BULLISH HOOK HAS MANY MORE MONTHS OF UP MOVE TOWARDS MUCH HIGHER LEVELS. THE CUP & HANDLE FORMATION BEING DEVELOPED IN THE MONTHLY CHART  WILL  TRIGGER A MEGA UP MOVE ON CLOSING ABOVE THE RESISTANCE LINE WHICH IS THE NECK LINE OF CUP HANDLE FORMATION  AROUND 6323 NIFTY LEVELS.

THE WEEKLY INDICATORS ALSO CONTINUE TO GENERATE MEGA BULLISH SIGNALS EVEN AFTER 5 CONSECUTIVE BULLISH WEEKS. WEEKLY STOCH AND THE WEEKLY MACD ALONG WITH THE WEEKLY RSI  ARE SENDING SHOCK WAVES INTO THE BEARS  HEARTS  QUIETLY WHISPERING IN THEIR YEARS THAT IT IS STILL NOT TOO LATE TO QUIT THE SHORTS &  JOIN THE BULLS  AFTER A MILD CORRECTION TO SEE NIFTY MAKING NEW LIFE TIME HIGHS. EARLIER NIFTY MADE 7 CONSECUTIVE BULLISH CLOSINGS FROM WEEK ENDING 7TH JANUARY 2012 TO 17TH JANUARY 2012 & 8 CONSECUTIVE WEEKS OF BULLISH CLOSINGS FROM WEEK ENDING 24 AUGUST 2007 TILL 12 OCTOBER 2007 & ANOTHER 8 FROM WEEK ENDING 13 OCTOBER 2006 TILL 1ST DECEMBER 2006. NIFTY ALSO HAD MADE  10 CONSECUTIVE WEEKS OF BULLISH CLOSINGS FROM WEEK ENDING 28 JULY 2006 TILL 29 SEPTEMBER 2006. SO, WHO KNOWS THIS TIME NIFTY MAY BREAK ALL PREVIOUS RECORDS.

WELL, THE WEEKLY BULLISH MACD HOOK COUPLED WITH HIGHLY BULLISH LOOKING WEEKLY SLOW STOCH AND RSI ARE CLEARLY DEPICTING EARLIER RECORDS TO BE BREACHED THIS TIME OR AFTER A PAUSE ANOTHER MEGA UP MOVE CAN BE EXPECTED. THE INDICATORS IN THE DAILY CHARTS ARE CERTAINLY  LOOKING OVER BOUGHT, BUT THESE INDICATORS WILL BOW DOWN TO THE HIGHER WEEKLY & MONTHLY INDICATORS WHICH DEPICT MUCH MORE UP MOVE. AT THE WORST CASE THERE MIGHT BE A PAUSE OR A LAST MONDAY 13TH MAY TYPE DECLINE TO SHOOT UP AGAIN AS HAPPENED FROM WEDNESDAY 15TH MAY. ALTHOUGH VERY SHORT TERM & INTRADAY TRADERS MAY TRADE ON BOTH SIDES OF THE MARKETS BY TRADING BOTH LONG & SHORT, BUT FOR MEDIUM TO LONG TERM INVESTORS,THEY  SHOULD ONLY BUY THE DECLINES & HOLD FOR LONG TERM TO RIDE THE MEGA BULL RUN.

FOR THE COMING WEEK, SPOT NIFTY FINDS INITIAL SUPPORT AROUND 6141 BELOW WHICH 6100 IS THE NEXT SUPPORT. SUSTAINING BELOW 6100 MAY SEE BIGGER FALLS  TOWARDS 6057 OR LOWER LEVELS. 14TH MAY DOJI LOW AROUND 5970 ALONG WITH DAILY PARSAR THERE  IS THE MAJOR SUPPORT FOR THE BOUNCE. SIMILARLY ON THE HIGHER SIDE SUSTAINING ABOVE 6181 FINDS ONLY THE RESISTANCE LINE AROUND 6323 FOLLOWED BY 6338 & 6357 FOR  NEW LIFE TIME HIGHS. A FAILURE ON PART OF THE BULLS TO APPROACH AND BREACH EACH OF THESE RESISTANCE LEVELS OF 6323, 6338 & 6357 CAN BE USED TO TRADE SHORT BY HAVING STOP LOSS  ABOVE THESE LEVELS  ON AN HOURLY OR 30 MINUTE CANDLE CLOSE BASIS.

 ON ANY DAY DURING COMING WEEKS, A DECISIVE CLOSE ABOVE DIWALI 5TH NOVEMBER 2010 HIGH OF 6338  CAN BE USED TO GO MEGA LONG. THE MONTHLY CANDLE OF NOVEMBER 2010 AND JANUARY 2008 HAD MADE BOTH INSIDE AS WELL AS  OUT SIDE CANDLE SETUPS WHOSE LOWS WHEN BREACHED HAD SEEN  BIG FALLS  DURING THE NEXT FEW MONTHS. SIMILARLY A BREACH OF THEIR RESPECTIVE HIGHS OF 6338 & 6357 IN ANY OF THE COMING WEEKS & MONTHS MAY SEE SIMILAR MEGA RISES.

1 comment:

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