WEEKLY ANALYSIS FOR WEEK ENDING 2ND AUG

SPOT NIFTY CLOSED THE WEAK AROUND 5886 EXACTLY AT 20 WEEK EMA & 34 WEEK SMA, AFTER BOUNCING OFF FROM THE  FRIDAY’S WEEKLY LOW OF 5869 THAT TOO EXACTLY FROM THE 20 WEEK SMA  WHICH TOO WAS AT THE WEEKLY PIVOT.  ALTHOUGH AFTER THREE DAYS OF SAVAGE FALLS FROM THE JULY MONTH  FULL MOON LUNAR CYCLE HIGH OF 6093 REACHED JUST A DAY AFTER THE FULL MOON OF 22ND JULY,  NIFTY NOW  CERTAINLY LOOKS FOR A RESPITE, BUT THE PRICE ACTION OF THE DAILY AS WELL AS THE WEEKLY CHARTS MAY ENCOURAGE BEARS TO HOLD THE TAILS OF THE BULLS, WHIP THEM  LEFT, RIGHT & CENTER TO CHASE THEM AWAY EVERY TIME THE BULLS ATTEMPT TO ENCROACH BEARS 40 POINT SPOT NIFTY ZONE BETWEEN 5960 TO 6000. WELL, THE BULLS NEED STEROID POWER FROM EXTERNAL SOURCES TO BREACH THE CRITICAL 5960 TO 6000 SPOT NIFTY ZONE & MORE IMPORTANTLY SUSTAIN ABOVE IT IN ORDER TO SURVIVE MARKET DROWNING MONTH OF AUGUST AFTER THE RBI GOVERNOR’S AS USUAL MARKET DROWNING ANNOUNCEMENT SCHEDULED FOR 31ST JULY.

IN THE WEEKLY CHARTS OF SPOT NIFTY, THE CANDLE OF LAST WEEK  HAS MADE AN OUT SIDE CANDLE SET UP WITH ITS PREVIOUS WEEK’S CANDLE OF WEEK ENDING 19TH JUNE. THE HIGH & LOW OF THE MOTHER CANDLE OF LAST WEEK AT  6093 & 5869 WILL PLAY A CRITICAL ROLE  IN DECIDING THE FATE OF THE COMING FEW WEEKS STARTING FROM MONDAY 29TH JULY. A DECISIVE BREACH AND CLOSE BELOW THE SPOT NIFTY LEVEL OF 5868 EVEN ON A DAILY BASIS IS GOOD ENOUGH TO ASSUME THAT THIS YEAR’S AUGUST MONTH IS GOING TO BE NO BETTER THAN EVEN ITS ALTERNATE YEAR AUGUST OF 2011 OR AT THE BEST THIS AUGUST MAY BE SIMILAR TO THE TYPICAL FLAT, DOJI CANDLE AUGUST MONTHS OF 2012, 2010,2009 & 2008. OPTION WRITERS MAY HAVE A DREAM MONTH OF AUGUST BY WRITING BOTH CALLS OF 6200 & 6100 ON RISE OF NIFTY  AND WRITE PUTS OF 5700 OR LOWER ON FALL OF NIFTY FOR GOOD GAINS DURING THE AUGUST EXPIRY ALTHOUGH A MONTHLY CLOSE MUCH BELOW THE CRITICAL LEVEL OF 5868 SPOT MAY TILT THE BALANCE HEAVILY IN FAVOR OF CALL WRITERS THAT SHOULD MAKE THE PUT WRITERS HIGHLY CAUTIOUS.

IN THE DAILY CHARTS, SPOT NIFTY’S FRIDAY CLOSING AROUND 5886 BELOW THE CROSS OVER OF BOTH 20 & 50 DMA SENDS DANGER SIGNALS FOR THE BULLS TO BE PREPARED NOT TO ALLOW  NIFTY SPOT TO CLOSE BELOW  5858 EVEN TOUGH INTRADAY FALLS CAN TAKE IT DOWN TOWARDS 5848  AROUND THE 200 DMA & ALSO 34 DMA  JUST BELOW THE DAILY PIVOT AT 5868 TO WEED OUT WEAKER BULLS & ALSO ENCOURAGE WEAKER BEARS TO BOOK SOME PROFIT.  WELL, IF THE BULLS SURRENDER THESE CRITICAL SPOT LEVELS BETWEEN 5868 TO 5844 THEN THEY HAVE TO SEEK THE HELP OF RESTING BULLS IN BATCHES INITIALLY AROUND THE 34 WEEK EMA AREA OF  5828  & NEXT AROUND 200 DAY EMA AREA OF 5790 WHICH IS JUST A STONES THROW FROM THE BIGGER DITCH AROUND 5760. THE 7TH NRB CANDLE HIGH OF 23RD JULY AT 6093 SPOT WAS A GREAT SWING HIGH FOR SWING SHORTERS TO HOLD THE SHORTS TILL THIS SWING HIGH OF 6093 IS STOPPED OUT. DAILY SUPPORTS & RESISTANCES FOR SPOT NIFTY ARE MENTIONED ON THE TWO HOURLY CHART OF NIFTY ABOVE, A DECISIVE BREACH OF EACH SUPPORT OR RESISTANCE IS LIKELY TO SEE THE NEXT LEVEL.
SO, THE BULLS NEED TO DO SOME HAVAN OR BIG SACRIFICE IF THEY HAVE TO SURVIVE THE BEARS  ONSLAUGHT AFTER SOME RETRACEMENT RISE THAT POSSIBLY MAY COME EARLY DURING THE COMING WEEK. WELL THE EFFORTS OF THE BULLS  WILL BE HANDSOMELY REWARDED ONLY IN CASE THEY CAN MANAGE TO BREACH THE BEARS’ IMPECCABLE  FORT  AROUND THE SPOT ZONE OF 5960 TO 6000 & SUSTAIN ABOVE IT. LETS HOPE  THAT THE RBI GOVERNOR  DURING THE COMING  ANNOUNCEMENT ON 31ST JULY SAYS  SOMETHING AT LEAST ONCE FOR THE BETTERMENT OF INDUSTRY & GROWTH OF THIS COUNTRY. AN AS USUAL ANTI GROWTH ANNOUNCEMENT CAN SEE NIFTY FALLING SHARPLY TOWARDS 200 DAY EMA AROUND 5790 OR EVEN TOWARDS 5760, EVEN  IF  THE BULLS WOULD HAVE TRIED TO TAKE NIFTY UP DURING THE DAYS PRECEDING THE RBI ANNOUNCEMENT DAY OF 31ST JULY TO GENERATE SOME DOWN SIDE SPACE FOR THE EXPECTED FREE FALL TO FEED THE HUNGRY  BEARS WAITING WITH THEIR  CROCODILE MOUTHS WIDE OPEN.

FOR INTRADAY TRADING OF NIFTY FUTURES ON MONDAY 29TH JULY, IRRESPECTIVE OF THE TECHNICALS WHICH SUGGESTS A REASONABLE UPWARD RETRACEMENT BOUNCE ON MONDAY,  THE OPENING WILL DEPEND ON THE CONDITION OF SGX NIFTY AROUND  9 TO 9.15 A.M. NIFTY FUTURES WHICH HAD CLOSED AROUND 5926 AFTER HAVING CURTAILED ITS HEFTY PREMIUM TO SPOT, MAY  FIND INITIAL SUPPORT AROUND FRIDAY’S LOWS OF 5907 BELOW WHICH BEARS WILL TRY TO PRESS HARDER TO HAVE 5900 BREACHED TO GENERATE SOME MORE PANIC.  IN CASE BULLS CAN MANAGE TO BOUNCE BACK & THEN HOLD ON TO 5900 EVEN AFTER A BREACH, THEN ONE CAN EXPECT NIFTY FUTURE TO DISPLAY A SOLID BOUNCE. HOWEVER A FAILURE TO SUSTAIN ABOVE 5900 CAN SEE NIFTY FUTURES SLIDING TOWARDS 5885 OR TOWARDS 5865 TO 5860 TO THREATEN FURTHER FALLS DURING THE COMING DAYS.

BOTH SPOT & FUTURE NIFTY HAVE MANAGED TO TEST, BREACH BUT BOUNCE BACK TO CLOSE AROUND THE FIBO 61.2% LEVELS  CALCULATED FROM THE 3RD JULY SWING LOW OF 5779 (5760 SPOT) TILL 23RD JULY SWING HIGH OF 6139( 6093 SPOT) AS CAN BE SEEN IN THE CHART ABOVE.  A FURTHER SLIDE AGAIN TO BREACH & MORE IMPORTANTLY  TO CLOSE BELOW THIS CRITICAL FIBO LEVEL WHERE ALSO RUNS THE IMPORTANT SUPPORT LINE  AS SEEN IN THE CHART ABOVE, MAY SPELL END GAME  AT LEAST FOR THE SHORT TERM BULLS WHO THEN MAY PLAN TO JOIN HANDS WITH THE BEARS TO RIDE THE UGLY MARKET MONTH OF AUGUST.

SIMILARLY IF THE BULLS CAN MUSTER ENOUGH STEROID INJECTED STRENGTH TO OVER POWER THE BEARS IN PREVENTING A DECISIVE BREACH OF 5900 FUTURE LEVELS AND BOUNCE UP FROM WHERE THEY HAD LEFT ON FRIDAY, THEN NIFTY FUTURE CAN MOVE UP TOWARDS 5950 TO 5955  WITH LOT MANY JERKY UP & DOWN MOVEMENTS TO IMPART ENOUGH TRAINING IN  TIGHT STOP LOSS CLEARANCE TO BOTH THE BULLS & BEARS. HOWEVER IN CASE BULLS CAN MANAGE TO RE- BREACH AND THEN TO SUSTAIN ABOVE 5965 TO 5970  FUTURE ZONE THEN THEY CAN RELAX & BE WITNESS TO RHYTHMIC SHORT COVERING BY THE WEAKER BEARS THAT IT SELF MAY PROPEL NIFTY FUTURE TOWARDS   5990 TO 5995 LEVELS. A SURPRISING GAP UP OR GAP DOWN BY ABOUT 25 TO 30 POINTS ON MONDAY MAY ALTER THESE TRADING STEPS OF HIGHER OR LOWER LEVELS BY SIMILAR AMOUNTS FOR INTRADAY TRADERS.

THE 2 HOURLY PERFECT  DOJI HIGH OF 5963 FUTURE LEVEL ATTAINED BY THE 2 HOURLY CANDLE CLOSING AT 3P.M. ON FRIDAY WITH ITS LOW AROUND 5907 WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN DECIDING THE FURTHER COURSE OF ACTION WHICH THE BULLS & BEARS ARE GOING TO TAKE ON MONDAY & DAYS AFTER IT.  WELL PIGS CAN DECIDE TO REMAIN WITHIN THIS CRITICAL RANGE OF 5963 TO 5907 FUTURE LEVELS FOR THE WHOLE OF MONDAY TO HAVE THE CAKE & EAT IT ALSO.

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