NIFTY WHICH HAD SHOWN EARLY SIGNS OF RECOVERY FROM PREVIOUS THURSDAY OF 8TH AUGUST, SAW THE ENTIRE 4 DAYS OF GAINS GETTING WIPED OFF ON A SINGLE DAY ON FRIDAY 16TH AUGUST. THE MONSTROUS SLIDE OF FRIDAY 16TH AUGUST FROM ITS PREVIOUS DAY 14TH AUGUST CLOSING OF 5742 SPOT TO A FRIDAY 16TH AUGUST LOW OF 5496 TO CLOSE AT 5507 SPOT, REMINDED ONE OF THE SIMILAR FALLS WHICH ONE HAD OBSERVED DURING THE BEAR MARKET OF 2008. WELL, THE BULLS STILL HAVE NOTHING TO WORRY AT ALL AS LONG AS SPOT NIFTY DOES NOT SLIDE FURTHER TO BREACH & CLOSE BELOW THE LOWER PARALLEL CHANNEL SUPPORT LINE AS CAN BE SEEN IN THE DAILY CHART OF SPOT NIFTY ABOVE. AS THE SINGLE DAY FALL OF NEARLY 250 NIFTY & 800 SENSEX POINTS WAS BASED ON A CONFUSING & MARKET DROWNING NEWS EVENT, A COUNTER NEWS EVENT CAN ALWAYS SEE THE BEARS GETTING BADLY TRAPPED FROM AROUND THE CRITICAL SUPPORT LINE BETWEEN 5496, 5486 TO 5454 SPOT NIFTY LEVELS. HOWEVER A FURTHER SLIDE TO CLOSE BELOW THE CRITICAL SPOT NIFTY LEVEL OF 5454 WILL SEE EVERYONE TURNING BEARISH TO PULL NIFTY DOWN TOWARDS SUB 5000 LEVELS IN QUICK TIME.
TECHNICALLY, THE SINGLE DAY FALL OF SPOT NIFTY ON FRIDAY 16TH AUGUST TO MAKE A LOW OF 5496 TO CLOSE AT 5508 BELOW ITS FOUR PREVIOUS DAY’S LOWS OF 5510 WHICH WAS THE LOW OF 8TH AUGUST FROM WHERE 4 DAYS OF RISE HAD OCCURRED IS A DISTINCT SIGN OF MEGA BEARISHNESS. THE CANDLE OF 14TH AUGUST WAS A 7TH NRB CANDLE AROUND THE RESISTANCES OF CLUSTER OF 20, 50 & 200 DAYS EMA. HENCE THE BREACH OF THIS LOW OF THE 7TH NRB CANDLE AT 5690 AROUND THE DAILY PIVOT ITSELF COULD HAVE PULLED NIFTY DOWN IRRESPECTIVE OF THE ADVERSE NEWS EVENT FROM RBI. WELL THE COUNTER NEWS AFTER THE FALL MAY SEE THE MARKET MOVING UP ALTHOUGH AS OF NOW IT SEEMS THE BLACK FRIDAY’S FALL HAS BROKEN THE BACK BONE OF NIFTY & THE LAST FEW DEATH PREVENTING BREATHS STILL LEFT WITH INDIAN MARKETS WILL SEE ITS END ONCE SPOT NIFTY CLOSES BELOW 5454. THE ONLY SAVIOR FOR NIFTY MAY BE THE COUNTER STATEMENT BY THE GOVT.
FOR THE COMING WEEK ENDING 23 AUGUST, SPOT NIFTY HAS INITIAL RESISTANCE AROUND THE LEVELS 5570 , 5595 & 5606 LEVELS EACH OF WHICH MAY BE TOUGH TO CROSS DURING ACTUAL TRADING & NEEDS SOME MANIPULATED GAP UPS TO OUT-RIGHTLY BREACH ALL THE THREE TILL 5606 IN ONE GO . IN CASE NIFTY SPOT MANAGES TO BREACH AND SUSTAIN ABOVE 5606 THAN IT MAY SEND SHIVERS TO SWING SHORTERS & INTRADAY OR SHORT TERM BEARS TO INITIATE EARLY ACTION OF COVERING THEIR SHORTS. THE NEXT HURDLE THAT MAY PROJECT A STIFF RESISTANCE IS THE CRITICAL SPOT LEVEL OF 5757. A DECISIVE BREACH & SUSTAINING ABOVE 5757 MAY BE THE INITIAL INDICATION THAT THE CORRECTION IS OVER TO TRIGGER MASSIVE SHORT COVERING TO MOVE UP & BREACH 5808 TO 5858 SPOT LEVELS ABOVE THE CLUSTER OF 20, 50 & 200 DAY EMAS TO RESUME THE BULL RUN. EACH OF THESE RESISTANCES RIGHT FROM THE INITIAL ONE AT 5570 TILL 5858 WILL ENCOURAGE TRADERS TO INITIATE SHORT POSITIONS BY HAVING STOP LOSSES SOME POINTS ABOVE EACH OF THESE RESISTANCES TO REVERSE FOR GOING LONG.
SIMILARLY ON THE LOWER SIDE, A BREACH OF FRIDAY’S LOWS OF 5496 SPOT WILL ENCOURAGE SHORTES TO INCREASE THEIR SHORT POSITIONS TO SEE DOWN SIDE LEVELS OF 5486, 5477 & 5454 IN QUICK TIME. BELOW THE LEVEL OF 5454 SPOT NIFTY WILL INDUCE MEGA SHORTS TO SEE 5252 FOLLOWED BY 5000 LEVELS TO THREATEN 2ND WAVE LOW OF 4531 DURING THE DEVASTATING MONTH OF OCTOBER. SO, THE SITUATION IS SUCH THAT UNLESS THERE ARE MARKET LIFTING ACTION BY THE GOVT DURING THE COMING WEEK, ONE SHOULD BE MENTALLY PREPARED TO SEE 5000 BEING TESTED BEFORE THE START OF OCTOBER MONTH. USUALLY THE DEVASTATING MONTHS OF MAY, AUGUST & OCTOBER BESIDES OFFERING GREAT MOTIVATION TO THE YOUNG AND DYNAMIC TRADERS TO LEARN THE ART OF SHORTING, THESE MONTHS ALSO INCREASE THE BANK BALANCES SEASONED SHORTERS BY MANY FOLDS.
FOR INTRADAY TRADING OF NIFTY FUTURES ON MONDAY 19TH AUGUST, NIFTY FUTURE HAS TO SUSTAIN ABOVE 5540 TO 5550 IN ORDER TO INDUCE SOME SHORT COVERING TO PROPEL THE FUTURE TOWARDS 5566 ABOVE WHICH 5590 IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. SUSTAINING ABOVE 5590 TO 5606 OR 5610 FUTURE LEVELS WILL INDUCE THE BEARS TO PRESS THE PANIC BUTTON TO COVER THEIR SHORTS. A RESOUNDING ANNOUNCEMENT BY THE GOVT TO NEGATE WHAT WAS ANNOUNCED TO PULL THE MARKETS DOWN ON FRIDAY CAN SEE A BIG GAP UP OPENING FOLLOWED BY MASSIVE SHORT COVERING TO PROPEL NIFTY FUTURES TOWARDS MUCH HIGHER LEVELS. AS THE EARLY AUGUST MEGA PREMIUM OF NIFTY FUTURES TO SPOT HAS BEEN COMPLETELY NULLIFIED, SLIGHTEST AMOUNT OF GOOD NEWS WILL LIFT NIFTY FUTURES UP TO REGENERATE THE PREMIUM. SIMILARLY ON THE LOWER SIDE, A DECISIVE BREACH OF FRIDAY’S LOWS OF 5494 CAN SEE THE ONSET OF FRESH BEARISHNESS AND BELOW 5474 NIFTY CAN CRASH TOWARDS 5454 FOLLOWED BY 5424 FUTURE LEVELS IN LIGHTENING SPEED TO STRAIGHT AIM FOR 5252 FOLLOWED BY SUB 5000 IN NEXT FEW DAYS.
TECHNICALLY, THE SINGLE DAY FALL OF SPOT NIFTY ON FRIDAY 16TH AUGUST TO MAKE A LOW OF 5496 TO CLOSE AT 5508 BELOW ITS FOUR PREVIOUS DAY’S LOWS OF 5510 WHICH WAS THE LOW OF 8TH AUGUST FROM WHERE 4 DAYS OF RISE HAD OCCURRED IS A DISTINCT SIGN OF MEGA BEARISHNESS. THE CANDLE OF 14TH AUGUST WAS A 7TH NRB CANDLE AROUND THE RESISTANCES OF CLUSTER OF 20, 50 & 200 DAYS EMA. HENCE THE BREACH OF THIS LOW OF THE 7TH NRB CANDLE AT 5690 AROUND THE DAILY PIVOT ITSELF COULD HAVE PULLED NIFTY DOWN IRRESPECTIVE OF THE ADVERSE NEWS EVENT FROM RBI. WELL THE COUNTER NEWS AFTER THE FALL MAY SEE THE MARKET MOVING UP ALTHOUGH AS OF NOW IT SEEMS THE BLACK FRIDAY’S FALL HAS BROKEN THE BACK BONE OF NIFTY & THE LAST FEW DEATH PREVENTING BREATHS STILL LEFT WITH INDIAN MARKETS WILL SEE ITS END ONCE SPOT NIFTY CLOSES BELOW 5454. THE ONLY SAVIOR FOR NIFTY MAY BE THE COUNTER STATEMENT BY THE GOVT.
FOR THE COMING WEEK ENDING 23 AUGUST, SPOT NIFTY HAS INITIAL RESISTANCE AROUND THE LEVELS 5570 , 5595 & 5606 LEVELS EACH OF WHICH MAY BE TOUGH TO CROSS DURING ACTUAL TRADING & NEEDS SOME MANIPULATED GAP UPS TO OUT-RIGHTLY BREACH ALL THE THREE TILL 5606 IN ONE GO . IN CASE NIFTY SPOT MANAGES TO BREACH AND SUSTAIN ABOVE 5606 THAN IT MAY SEND SHIVERS TO SWING SHORTERS & INTRADAY OR SHORT TERM BEARS TO INITIATE EARLY ACTION OF COVERING THEIR SHORTS. THE NEXT HURDLE THAT MAY PROJECT A STIFF RESISTANCE IS THE CRITICAL SPOT LEVEL OF 5757. A DECISIVE BREACH & SUSTAINING ABOVE 5757 MAY BE THE INITIAL INDICATION THAT THE CORRECTION IS OVER TO TRIGGER MASSIVE SHORT COVERING TO MOVE UP & BREACH 5808 TO 5858 SPOT LEVELS ABOVE THE CLUSTER OF 20, 50 & 200 DAY EMAS TO RESUME THE BULL RUN. EACH OF THESE RESISTANCES RIGHT FROM THE INITIAL ONE AT 5570 TILL 5858 WILL ENCOURAGE TRADERS TO INITIATE SHORT POSITIONS BY HAVING STOP LOSSES SOME POINTS ABOVE EACH OF THESE RESISTANCES TO REVERSE FOR GOING LONG.
SIMILARLY ON THE LOWER SIDE, A BREACH OF FRIDAY’S LOWS OF 5496 SPOT WILL ENCOURAGE SHORTES TO INCREASE THEIR SHORT POSITIONS TO SEE DOWN SIDE LEVELS OF 5486, 5477 & 5454 IN QUICK TIME. BELOW THE LEVEL OF 5454 SPOT NIFTY WILL INDUCE MEGA SHORTS TO SEE 5252 FOLLOWED BY 5000 LEVELS TO THREATEN 2ND WAVE LOW OF 4531 DURING THE DEVASTATING MONTH OF OCTOBER. SO, THE SITUATION IS SUCH THAT UNLESS THERE ARE MARKET LIFTING ACTION BY THE GOVT DURING THE COMING WEEK, ONE SHOULD BE MENTALLY PREPARED TO SEE 5000 BEING TESTED BEFORE THE START OF OCTOBER MONTH. USUALLY THE DEVASTATING MONTHS OF MAY, AUGUST & OCTOBER BESIDES OFFERING GREAT MOTIVATION TO THE YOUNG AND DYNAMIC TRADERS TO LEARN THE ART OF SHORTING, THESE MONTHS ALSO INCREASE THE BANK BALANCES SEASONED SHORTERS BY MANY FOLDS.
FOR INTRADAY TRADING OF NIFTY FUTURES ON MONDAY 19TH AUGUST, NIFTY FUTURE HAS TO SUSTAIN ABOVE 5540 TO 5550 IN ORDER TO INDUCE SOME SHORT COVERING TO PROPEL THE FUTURE TOWARDS 5566 ABOVE WHICH 5590 IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. SUSTAINING ABOVE 5590 TO 5606 OR 5610 FUTURE LEVELS WILL INDUCE THE BEARS TO PRESS THE PANIC BUTTON TO COVER THEIR SHORTS. A RESOUNDING ANNOUNCEMENT BY THE GOVT TO NEGATE WHAT WAS ANNOUNCED TO PULL THE MARKETS DOWN ON FRIDAY CAN SEE A BIG GAP UP OPENING FOLLOWED BY MASSIVE SHORT COVERING TO PROPEL NIFTY FUTURES TOWARDS MUCH HIGHER LEVELS. AS THE EARLY AUGUST MEGA PREMIUM OF NIFTY FUTURES TO SPOT HAS BEEN COMPLETELY NULLIFIED, SLIGHTEST AMOUNT OF GOOD NEWS WILL LIFT NIFTY FUTURES UP TO REGENERATE THE PREMIUM. SIMILARLY ON THE LOWER SIDE, A DECISIVE BREACH OF FRIDAY’S LOWS OF 5494 CAN SEE THE ONSET OF FRESH BEARISHNESS AND BELOW 5474 NIFTY CAN CRASH TOWARDS 5454 FOLLOWED BY 5424 FUTURE LEVELS IN LIGHTENING SPEED TO STRAIGHT AIM FOR 5252 FOLLOWED BY SUB 5000 IN NEXT FEW DAYS.
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