WEEKLY ANALYSIS FOR WEEK ENDING 4TH OCTOBER

AFTER FOUR CONSECUTIVE WEEKS OF RISE FROM 28TH AUGUST LOW OF 5819 TILL  19TH SEPTEMBER HIGH OF 6142, MOVING UP BY 1023 POINTS, SPOT NIFTY CORRECTED AS WAS EXPECTED AND FORMED A RED WEEKLY CANDLE BY CLOSING THE WEEK AT 5833 NOT VERY FAR OFF FROM THE DANGEROUS 16TH AUGUST LOWS OF 5797  FORMING THE START OF THE DOWN SLOPPING NECKLINE OF A LIKELY HEAD & SOLDER FORMATION. A DECISIVE BREACH OF THIS DOWN SLOPPING NECK LINE  NOW AROUND 5757 SPOT NIFTY LEVELS WILL SEE MASSIVE SHORTING INTEREST DEVELOPING  AMONGST BOTH THE BULLS & BEARS THAT SHOULD SEE A FURTHER FALL BY ABOUT 450 POINTS TOWARDS SUB 5400 LEVELS.

A DECISIVE BREACH OF THIS NECK LINE AS CAN BE SEEN IN THE CHART ABOVE, WILL  GULP IN ONE GO THE 38.2% SUPPORT OF 5751, THE 50% SUPPORT OF 5631 &  IT WILL NOT EVEN SPARE THE LOGICAL  61.8% SUPPORT AROUND 5510. THE ONLY WAY THIS BEARS TSUNAMI CAN BE HALTED  IS  BY NOT ONLY HOLDING STRONGLY THE NECK LINE BETWEEN 5797 TO 5757 BUT ALSO MOVING UP TO BREACH & SUSTAIN ABOVE THE CRITICAL RESISTANCE OF  5919 TO 5939 SPOT ZONE THAT WILL AT LEAST  SUPPRESS  THE BUTCHER MONTH OF OCTOBER WAITING WITH GRINDING TEETH  TO CRUSH THE BONES OF THE BULLS.

HOWEVER IF THE BULLS INSTEAD OF SHIVERING BEFORE THE START OF OCTOBER, IF CONSPIRE WITH  THE WEAK BEARS TO LIFT SPOT NIFTY TO CLOSE ABOVE 5919 TO 5939 ZONE THEN EVEN THE DEADLY MONTH OF OCTOBER MAY BE SEEN  TURNING ROMANTIC TO ROMANTICIZE WITH THE COURAGEOUS BULLS TO SEE A NEW HIGH ABOVE 19TH SEPTEMBER HIGH OF 6142 TO OPEN ITS  GATES TO WELCOME THE BULLS  TO BREACH

WEEKLY ANALYSIS FOR WEEK ENDING 27TH SEPTEMBER

IN SPITE OF THE DISAPPOINTMENT FROM THE RBI GOVERNOR ON FRIDAY, THAT SAW NIFTY SPOT FALLING BY NEARLY 200 POINTS FROM FRIDAY’S INTRADAY HIGH OF 6131 TO A LOW F 5933, THE WAY NIFTY BOUNCED BACK TO CLOSE THE DAY AT 6012 ABOVE THE RESISTANCE LINE ROUND THE ZONE OF 5990 TO 6000 WHICH JOINS THE 20TH MAY 2013 SWING HIGH OF 6229 & 23RD JULY SWING HIGH OF 6093 AS CAN BE SEEN IN THE WEEKLY CHART OF SPOT NIFTY ABOVE, IS AN INDICATION THAT THERE IS STILL SOME MORE UPSIDE STEAM LEFT IN NIFTY THAT SHOULD TAKE IT UP TOWARDS THE INITIAL RESISTANCE LINE AROUND 6212 FOLLOWED BY THE FINAL RESISTANCE LINE AROUND 6313 AS GIVEN IN THE CHART ABOVE. AS ONE SAW THE INTRADAY CORRECTION ON FRIDAY, ONE SHOULD BE PREPARED TO SEE SIMILAR SHARP CORRECTIONS AFTER EVERY RISE TOWARDS THESE CRITICAL RESISTANCE LEVELS.

THERE IS MORE LIKELY HOOD OF A CORRECTION SINCE NIFTY SEEMS TO HAVE COMPLETED THE 5 WAVE RISE STARTING FROM 28TH AUGUST LOWS OF 5118 TILL 19TH SEPTEMBER HIGHS OF 6142. EVEN IF NIFTY RISES AGAIN A FEW POINTS MORE TO COMPLETE THE 5TH WAVE, IT MAY BE TOUGH FOR IT TO BREACH THE RESISTANCE LINES AROUND 6212 & 6313. SO, IT IS BETTER THAT NIFTY FALLS, RETRACES A PORTION OF THE 1026 POINT RISE FROM 5118 TILL 6142 TOWARDS AT LEAST 50% AROUND 5619 OR 61.8% LEVELS AROUND 5505 TO RESUME THE NEXT LEG OF THE UP MOVE TO ENCOUNTER & SUCCESSFULLY BREACH BOTH THE RESISTANCE LINES ABOVE. THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY THAT NIFTY INSTEAD OF FALLING IN AN “ABC” ZIGZAG PATTERN MAY AGAIN CONSOLIDATE IN A FLAT TYPE TIME CORRECTION TO SMOOTHLY PASS OVER THE DEVASTATING MONTH OF OCTOBER TO RESUME THE NEXT LEG OF THE UP MOVE

MARKETS FOR FRIDAY 20TH SEPTEMBER

NIFTY CONTINUED WITH THE MINI BREAK OUT GIVEN ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE MONSTER BREAKOUT ON THURSDAY AND THE TECHNICALS CLEARLY INDICATE MUCH HIGHER LEVELS FOR NIFTY BEFORE THE END OF THIS MARKET FRIENDLY MONTH OF SEPTEMBER . NIFTY SPOT HAVING BREACHED THE 23RD JULY HIGH OF 6093 AND HAVING CLOSED ABOVE IT AT 6115 FINDS NOW THE NEXT RESISTANCE AROUND THE LONG TERM RESISTANCE LINE AROUND 6206 TO 6230 SPOT ZONE AROUND WHICH ALSO REMAINS THE HIGH OF 20TH MAY 2013 AT 6229 AND ALSO THE MONTHLY PARSAR AROUND 6208. SO ANOTHER BIG GAP UP ON MONDAY OR JUST AFTER THE RBI GOVERNOR’S ANNOUNCEMENTS ON FRIDAY CAN ONLY SKIP THIS LAST CITADEL OF THE HARD CORE BEARS BEFORE REACHING AND BREACHING THE ALL TIME HIGHS OF 6338 SPOT THAT WAS REACHED ON THE DIWALI NIGHT OF 5TH NOVEMBER 2010. SO ONE NEEDS TO SEE HOW NIFTY SPOT NEGOTIATES THE CRITICAL ZONE BETWEEN 6200 TO 6230 .

FOR TRADING ON MONDAY IT IS BETTER TO WAIT FOR THE ANNOUNCEMENT OF RBI GOVERNOR BEFORE JUMPING INTO HECTIC BUYING ALTHOUGH ONE MAY HOLD ON TO THE CARRIED CALLS AND MAY ADD MORE CALLS AND SOME PUTS JUST BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF RBI GOVERNOR. MARKETS LOOKS EXTREMELY BULLISH AND USE INTRADAY CORRECTIONS TO BUY ONLY AS LONG AS SPOT NIFTY CONTINUES TO STAY ABOVE THURSDAY’S OPENING GAP LOW OF 6047. AN ENTRY INTO THE GAP & THEN FAILING TO COME UP MAY BE THE FIRST SIGNAL TO REDUCE LONGS & ADD PUTS.

MARKETS FOR THURSDAY 19TH SEPTEMBER

NIFTY HAS GIVEN THE INITIAL INDICATION OF A BREAK OUT ON THE UP SIDE HAVING BREACHED THE CRITICAL 5878 SPOT LEVEL AND HAVING CLOSED ABOVE IT. ALTHOUGH NIFTY SPOT NEEDS TO DECISIVELY BREACH THE 16TH SEPTEMBER HIGH OF 5956 TO CLOSE ABOVE IT TO CONFIRM THE END TO THE 4TH WAVE FLAT AND ONSET OF THE 5TH UP WAVE, YET ONE SHOULD BE REASONABLY SURE TO SEE THE UP MOVE CONTINUING UNLESS FED CHAIRMAN SPOILS THE PARTY FOR INDIAN MARKETS & IF THAT HAPPENS THEN ONE HAS TO LOOK FOR THE RAJAN EFFECT THROUGH THE RBI ANNOUNCEMENT EARLY NEXT WEEK TO KNOW THE FINAL FATE OF INDIAN MARKETS WHICH LOOKS AS IF IT IS HIGHLY POISED FOR A BIG UP MOVE.

AS OF NOW BUY EVERY DECLINE MAY BE FOLLOWED HOPING FOR A SURPRISE GIFT FROM FED CHAIRMAN. IN CASE OF ANY ADVERSE NEWS FROM U.S., THE CRITICAL SPOT NIFTY LEVEL OF 5840 HAS TO BE SAVED BY THE BULLS TO HOPE FOR THE RESUMPTION OF THE UP MOVE OR ELSE IT WILL BE THE BEARS WHO WILL RULE THE MARKETS AGAIN. LETS HOPE FOR THE BEST & LOOK FOR A MEGA BREAKOUT ABOVE THE 16TH SEPTEMBER HIGH OF 5956 TOWARDS 6000 SPOT NIFTY LEVELS IN NEXT FEW DAYS.

MARKETS FOR WEDNESDAY 18TH SEPTEMBER

NIFTY IS STILL CONFINED WITHIN A 4TH WAVE FLAT AFTER MAKING A 3RD WAVE HIGH OF 5956 AND THIS FLAT MAY CONTINUE FOR A DAY OR TWO MORE WITH THE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY INDICATING A BREAK OUT OF THE 4TH WAVE FLAT. THE NEW WAVE WHICH STARTED FROM 28TH AUGUST LOW OF 5119 WENT UP TILL 3RD SEPTEMBER HIGH OF 5579 AS THE 1ST WAVE, CAME DOWN TILL 5323 AS THE 2ND WAVE, THEN MADE A HIGH OF 5929 AS THE 3RD WAVE. THE PRESENT FLAT IS THE 4TH DAY OF CONSOLIDATION WITH THE HIGH OF 5957 AND LOW OF 5797 & THIS ZONE MAY CONTINUE FOR SOME DAYS TILL A DECISIVE BREAK TAKES PLACE IN ANY DIRECTION.

THE 4TH WAVE FLAT GENERALLY SHOULD BREAK OUT ON THE UP SIDE, EVEN THOUGH THERE MAY BE MANY A TIMES BREACH OF THE HIGH OR THE LOWS TO TRIGGER STOP LOSSES. SO FOR WEDNESDAY ALSO THIS FLAT MAY CONTINUE WITHIN THE TIGHT ZONE OF 5878 SPOT ON THE HIGHER SIDE AND 5804 SPOT ON THE LOWER SIDE WITH ONE OR TWO

MARKETS FOR TUESDAY 17TH SEPTEMBER

MARKETS STILL LOOK HIGHLY BULLISH AS LONG AS SPOT NIFTY SUSTAINS ABOVE 5775 TO 5760. SO USE INITIAL DECLINES TOWARDS THESE LEVELS OF SPOT NIFTY TO BUY FOR QUICK INTRADAY GAINS. HOWEVER A CLOSURE OF SPOT NIFTY BELOW THE 13TH  THE FRIDAY’S 7TH NRB LOW OF 5822 SHOULD BE THE EARLY SIGNAL TO BOLDLY SHORT THE MARKETS  AS IN THAT CASE BIGGER FALL CAN BE EXPECTED.

FOR INTRADAY TRADING OF NIFTY FUTURES, HAVE MONDAY’S LOWS OF 5815 OR 5800 AS A STOP LOSS ON A 30 MINUTE OR A 15 MINUTE CANDLE CLOSING BASIS AND TRADE LONG ON EVERY INTRADAY DECLINE TOWARDS 5815 TO 5800  FUTURE ZONE TO REVERSE FOR RUTHLESS SHORTING BELOW THIS CRITICAL ZONE. SIMILARLY ON THE HIGHER SIDE A DECISIVE BREACH AND SUSTAINING ABOVE THE FUTURE ZONE OF 5902 TO 5909 CAN SEE MONSTROUS UP MOVE TOWARDS 5966 INITIALLY FOLLOWED BY MONDAY’S TRADING HIGH OF 5989. A FAILURE TO BREACH AND SUSTAIN ABOVE THE FUTURE ZONE OF 5902 TO 5909 CAN BE BRUTALLY SHORTED FOR GOOD INTRADAY GAINS BY HAVING A STOP LOSS ABOVE THE ZONE TO REVERSE FOR GOING LONG.

WEEKLY ANALYSIS FOR WEEK ENDING 20TH SEPTEMBER

IT WAS ANOTHER BULLISH WEEK FOR NIFTY THAT SAW A WEEKLY HIGH OF 5932 SPOT TO FINALLY CLOSE AROUND 5850 COMPARED TO ITS EARLIER TRUNCATED WEEK ENDING 6TH SEPTEMBER CLOSING OF 5680. WELL,  ONE HAS TO WAIT AND SEE IF “THE RAJAN EFFECT” WILL FADE AWAY TO BE REPLACED BY THE “MODI EFFECT” OR   BOTH EFFECTS WILL COMBINE TO  DELIVER A SUPER ACCELERATOR IMPACT ON THE MARKETS. WELL, THE WEEKLY TECHNICALS PROJECT  ANOTHER ROCKET WEEK FOR INDIAN MARKETS TO OVERCOME THE OVERBOUGHT INDICATIONS GENERATED BY THE DAILY INDICATORS. THREE  DAYS OF PAUSE  STARTING FROM WEDNESDAY 11TH SEPTEMBER  & NIFTY MANAGING TO CLOSE ABOVE THE BEARS’ DARLING  THE 200 DAY SMA   STANDING STRAIGHT LIKE THE TRANCE SIBERIAN  RAILWAY LINE AROUND 5838 MAY BECOME THE BENCH MARK FOR THE BULLS TO PLAY THE DECEPTIVE GAME AROUND IT BY BREACHING IT BUT ONLY TO PULL UP AND CLOSE ABOVE IT AFTER EVERY INTRADAY BREACH.

THE MEGA BULLISHNESS INDICATED BY THE WEEKLY INDICATORS  LIKE  THE SLOW STOCH 15,3,3  & THE RSI 14 , BOTH MOVING UP TO BREACH  THE 50%+ MARK & WEEKLY CCI 14 PIERCING UPWARDS  &CLOSING ABOVE THE ZERO LEVEL  DEPICTS SOME MORE WEEKS OF UP MOVE EVEN THOUGH THE MAJOR RESISTANCE LINE JOINING THE    20 MAY SWING HIGH OF 6229 & 23RD JULY SWING HIGH OF 6093 STANDS  LIKE  THE INVINCIBLE  ROCK AROUND 6000 SPOT NIFTY LEVELS  THAT MAY ALWAYS  ATTRACT  THE BEARS TO GO