WEEKLY ANALYSIS FOR WEEK ENDING 20TH SEPTEMBER

IT WAS ANOTHER BULLISH WEEK FOR NIFTY THAT SAW A WEEKLY HIGH OF 5932 SPOT TO FINALLY CLOSE AROUND 5850 COMPARED TO ITS EARLIER TRUNCATED WEEK ENDING 6TH SEPTEMBER CLOSING OF 5680. WELL,  ONE HAS TO WAIT AND SEE IF “THE RAJAN EFFECT” WILL FADE AWAY TO BE REPLACED BY THE “MODI EFFECT” OR   BOTH EFFECTS WILL COMBINE TO  DELIVER A SUPER ACCELERATOR IMPACT ON THE MARKETS. WELL, THE WEEKLY TECHNICALS PROJECT  ANOTHER ROCKET WEEK FOR INDIAN MARKETS TO OVERCOME THE OVERBOUGHT INDICATIONS GENERATED BY THE DAILY INDICATORS. THREE  DAYS OF PAUSE  STARTING FROM WEDNESDAY 11TH SEPTEMBER  & NIFTY MANAGING TO CLOSE ABOVE THE BEARS’ DARLING  THE 200 DAY SMA   STANDING STRAIGHT LIKE THE TRANCE SIBERIAN  RAILWAY LINE AROUND 5838 MAY BECOME THE BENCH MARK FOR THE BULLS TO PLAY THE DECEPTIVE GAME AROUND IT BY BREACHING IT BUT ONLY TO PULL UP AND CLOSE ABOVE IT AFTER EVERY INTRADAY BREACH.

THE MEGA BULLISHNESS INDICATED BY THE WEEKLY INDICATORS  LIKE  THE SLOW STOCH 15,3,3  & THE RSI 14 , BOTH MOVING UP TO BREACH  THE 50%+ MARK & WEEKLY CCI 14 PIERCING UPWARDS  &CLOSING ABOVE THE ZERO LEVEL  DEPICTS SOME MORE WEEKS OF UP MOVE EVEN THOUGH THE MAJOR RESISTANCE LINE JOINING THE    20 MAY SWING HIGH OF 6229 & 23RD JULY SWING HIGH OF 6093 STANDS  LIKE  THE INVINCIBLE  ROCK AROUND 6000 SPOT NIFTY LEVELS  THAT MAY ALWAYS  ATTRACT  THE BEARS TO GO
 SHORT ON EVERY RISE OF SPOT NIFTY TOWARDS IT BY HAVING A STOP LOSS ABOVE THE RESISTANCE LINE TO REVERSE FOR GOING LONG ABOVE THE RESISTANCE LINE ( OF COURSE KEEPING WELL IN MIND THE POSSIBILITY OF A PIN BAR FORMATION ABOVE THE RESISTANCE LINE  TO  SLIDE DOWN AGAIN TO SQUEEZE THE BULLS OUT OF SHAPE)

 RISE OF SPOT NIFTY TO BREACH  THE TRIO OF 20, 34 & 50 WEEK SMAS  TO CLOSE  AROUND  5850 WELL ABOVE THIS CLUSTER  TRIO BETWEEN THE SPOT ZONE OF 5828 TO 5797 CONVERTS THIS CLUSTER ZONE INTO A POWERFUL SPRING ACTION LAUNCHING PAD TO PROPEL NIFTY UPWARDS  AFTER EVERY INTRADAY TUNNELING ACTION BY THE BEARS TO PIERCE IT. THE 200 DAY SMA AROUND 5838  PROVIDES THE RIGHT  VANGUARD ACTION TO THE WEEKLY SMA CLUSTER ZONE. THE PRICE ACTION FOR THE WEEK ENDING 6TH SEPTEMBER WAS A 7TH NRB WEEKLY CANDLE WITH THE WEEKLY HIGH OF 5688. THE CANDLE OF WEEK ENDING 13TH SEPTEMBER WENT UP TO MAKE A HIGH OF 5932 TO CLOSE AT 5850 HIGH ABOVE THE WEEKLY PIVOT,  FORMS A STRONG TRIGGER CANDLE TO THE EARLIER 7TH NRB CANDLE. A DECISIVE BREACH OF THIS WEEKLY TRIGGER CANDLE HIGH OF 5932  WILL  FORCE  MOST OF THE BEARS TO CONVERT & JOIN HANDS  WITH THE BULLS IN PIERCING AND CLOSING ABOVE THE MAJOR RESISTANCE LINE AROUND 6000 SPOT LEVELS. FAILURE ON THE PART OF THE BULLS TO PROTECT THEIR BACKS AROUND 5737 WHICH IS THE LOW OF THIS WEEKLY TRIGGER CANDLE, WILL SEE THE BEARS POUNDING OVER THE BULLS TO HOLD THEIR TAILS & WHIP THEM LEFT , RIGHT AND CENTRE & CHASE THE BULLS AWAY   INTO THE BIG GAP STARTING FROM 5737 TILL 5688 SPOT.

THE INDICATORS IN THE DAILY CHARTS ALTHOUGH LOOK OVERBOUGHT, YET THESE MAY CONTINUE TO ENJOY THE HONEYMOON WITHIN THE OVERBOUGHT ZONE AS LONG AS THEIR HIGHER  WEEKLY INDICATORS CONTINUE TO GENERATE BULLISH SIGNALS.    BEARS’  BEST FRIEND THE 200 DAY SMA AROUND 5838 ALLOWING THE BULLS TO CARRY OUT SPRING ACTION FROM IT, FOLLOWED BY THE CRITICAL 200 DAY EMA AROUND 5737 PROTECTING THE BULLS’  BACK RIGHT AT THE   GAP LOW OF 10TH SEPTEMBER,  MAY PROVIDE GOOD SUPPORT TO NIFTY SPOT FOR THE COMING DAYS.  A FAILURE ON THE PART OF THE BULLS TO  PROTECT THEIR BACKS AROUND THE GAP LOW OF 5737 MAY SEE THE BEARS HOPPING STRAIGHT TOWARDS  THE 6TH SEPTEMBER GAP HIGH OF 5566 SPOT LEVELS  WHICH ALTHOUGH IS WELL GUARDED BY THE 50 DAY EMA AROUND 5676 LEVELS. CONFLUENCE OF SUPPORTS & RESISTANCES AROUND THE CRITICAL LEVEL OF 5656 SPOT AS CAN BE SEEN IN THE CHART ABOVE MAKES IT A GREAT SUPPORT EVEN IF THE GAP STARTING FROM 5737 IS PIERCED.

ON THE HIGHER SIDE A DECISIVE BREACH AND  MORE IMPORTANTLY A CLOSE ABOVE THE THURSDAY 12TH SEPTEMBER HIGH OF 5932 MAY SEE THE BEARS BEING  THROWN OUT OF SIGHT TO RESURFACE AROUND THE MAJOR RESISTANCE LINE OF 6000 TO WELCOME THE BULLS WITH OPEN ARMS SO THAT BOTH CAN JOIN HANDS AFTER A PITCHED BATTLE AROUND  6000 SPOT LEVELS  TO MOVE UP  TOGETHER & AIM FOR A NEW LIFE TIME HIGH ABOVE 6357  WITH  LATE NIGH PARTY BREAKS  AROUND THE 27TH JULY HIGH OF 6093 & 20 MAY 2013 HIGH OF 6229.  ON ANY DAY  EVEN AN INTRADAY CLOSE OF A 30 MINUTE CANDLE BELOW 5800 IS A GOOD INDICATION FOR BULLS TO REDUCE LONGS ALLOWING THE BEARS TO BOLDLY SHORT WITH A TIGHT STOP LOSS   & SIMILARLY AN INTRADAY CLOSING OF A 30 MINUTE CANDLE ABOVE  5932 SPOT MAY FORCE THE BEARS TO COVER THEIR SHORTS & JOIN THE BULLS WITH A REASONABLE STOP LOSS.
 

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