WEEKLY ANALYSIS FOR WEEK ENDING 13TH SEPTEMBER

THE WEEK ENDING 6TH SEPTEMBER WAS A HIGHLY TRIUMPHANT WEEK FOR THE BULLS. SPOT NIFTY BOUNCED UP FROM THE  LOW OF  5318  FROM AROUND THE  CRITICAL 200 WEEK EMA LEVEL  & BY THE WEEK END OF FRIDAY 6TH SEPTEMBER NIFTY WENT UP TO MAKE A HIGH OF  5688 TO CLOSE THE WEEK  AROUND  5680 VERY NEAR THE HIGH OF THE WEEK DEPICTING FURTHER BULLISHNESS FOR THE COMING WEEK TOO. ALL TRADERS & INVESTORS MUST KEEP IN MIND THAT WHEN EVERYTHING LOOKS HIGHLY BULLISH AND ALMOST ALL THE ANALYSTS START TO DELIVER BULLISH SPEECHES THAT’S THE TIME MARKETS PLAY THEIR  NASTY  GAME OF FOOLING EVERYONE BY TURNING BEARISH. TO THIS EXTENT LIKELY MISSILE STRIKE BY US  ON SYRIA DURING THE COMING WEEK  MAY PUT A BREAK  AT LEAST FOR SOME DAYS TO THE THUNDERING BULLISHNESS THAT  INDIAN MARKETS HAD DISPLAYED DURING  LAST WEEK.

 IN ANY CASE,  EVEN THOUGH NIFTY HAD A WEEKLY CLOSING  EXACTLY AT THE WEEKLY PIVOT, YET AS LONG AS NIFTY DOES NOT MOVE UP TO BREACH AND MORE IMPORTANTLY HAVE A WEEKLY CLOSE ABOVE THE CLUSTER OF THREE CRITICAL  20, 34 & 50 WEEKLY EMAS ENTANGLED WITHIN THE ZONE OF 5717 TO 5747 RESOUNDING BULLISHNESS MAY NOT BE EXPECTED.( ALSO DON’T FORGET THAT THE FIBO 61.8%  RETRACEMENT CALCULATED FROM  23RD JULY SWING HIGH OF 6093 TILL 28TH  AUGUST SWING LOW OF 5118  FALLS AT 5720 WHICH TOO IS WITHIN THESE 3 CRITICAL EMA  CLUSTER ZONE). RESOUNDING BULLISHNESS MAY BE EXPECTED ONLY AFTER  THE BREACH & CLOSE ABOVE THE WEEK ENDING 16TH AUGUST HIGH OF 5757 THAT
HAD FORMED AN OUT SIDE CANDLE SETUP WITH THE CANDLE OF WEEK ENDING 8TH AUGUST, TILL THEN THE BULLS MAY NOT HAVE A PEACEFUL SLEEP EVEN THOUGH THE CANDLE OF WEEK ENDING 6TH SEPTEMBER INDICATES SUPER BULLISHNESS FOR NIFTY PURELY BASED ON TECHNICALS. SO, THE BULLS NEED TO KEEP THEIR FINGERS CROSSED & PRAY GOD THAT NOTHING UNUSUAL HAPPENS BETWEEN U.S. & SYRIA THAT MAY HAVE A DEVASTATING EFFECT ON THE EQUITY MARKETS ACROSS THE WORLD AT LEAST FOR A FEW DAYS.

THE TECHNICAL INDICATORS IN THE DAILY CHARTS TOO LOOK MEGA BULLISH FOR SOME MORE DAYS OF UP MOVE AFTER THE 123 BREAKOUT MOVE ABOVE THE 3RD SEPTEMBER MONSTER RED CANDLE HIGH OF 5580 SPOT. DURING LAST WEEK SPOT NIFTY HAS MADE A CLEAN SWEEP OF THE BOTH SETS OF 20, 34 & 50 EMA AS WELL AS DMAS BY BREACHING THEIR CLUSTER BETWEEN 5525 TO 5640 & HAVING CLOSED ABOVE ALL THESE. NOW IT IS ONLY THE 200 DAY EMA AROUND 5727 AND THE BEARS ONLY HOPE THE 200 DAY SMA AROUND 5838 THAT THE BULLS NEED TO SUCCESSFULLY NEGOTIATE TO PROVE THAT THE PRESENT UP MOVE FROM 28TH AUGUST LOW OF 5118 IS NOT AN ‘ABC’  DEAD CAT BOUNCE TO THE OVERALL BEARISH MOVE BUT SOMETHING ELSE REALLY BIG TOWARDS MUCH HIGHER LEVELS BEYOND 6000.

IN ANY CASE THE BREACH & MORE IMPORTANTLY A CLOSE  ABOVE  5757 FOLLOWED BY AUGUST MONTH HIGH OF 5808 OR THE 200 DAY SMA AROUND 5838 MAY ACT LIKE A POWERFUL STEROID FOR THE BULLS TO MOVE UP FURTHER TO AT LEAST KISS THE RESISTANCE LINE AROUND  5969 TO 6000 JOINING THE  20 MAY SWING HIGH OF 6229 & 23RD JULY SWING HIGH OF 6093 AS CAN BE SEEN IN THE DAILY CHART OF SPOT NIFTY ABOVE.  NEWS EVENTS & LIQUIDITY ARE THE MAIN SOURCE FOR MOVING THE MARKETS & THE TECHNICALS JUST FOLLOW THESE TWO. LET’S SEE HOW THE NEWS EVENTS AND THE LIQUIDITY PLAY WITH THE MARKETS DURING THE COMING WEEK ALTHOUGH THE TECHNICALS SO FAR INDICATE MEGA BULLISHNESS. A SLIDE BY SPOT NIFTY TO BREACH THE 5TH SEPTEMBER GAP LOW OF 5553 MAY SEND WARNING SIGNAL TO THE BULLS  TO TRY THEIR BEST NOT TO HAVE  A NIFTY CLOSURE  WITHIN THE GAP FORMED BY  4TH SEPTEMBER HIGH OF 5460 & 5TH SEPTEMBER LOW OF 5553. IF BULLS ALLOW THAT TO HAPPEN THEN THE BEARS MAY USE THE NAUGHTY 20 DAY EMA ROMANCING WITH THE DAILY PIVOT AROUND 5515 AS THE TIE ROPE ROUND THE NECK OF THE BULLS TO WHIP THE BULLS AWAY TOWARDS SUB  5318 LEVELS  TO MARK THE END GAME FOR THE BULLS.

MARKETS FOR TUESDAY 10TH SEPTEMBER   FOR TUESDAY’S TRADING OF NIFTY FUTURES, ALTHOUGH TECHNICALS CLEARY INDICATE BULLISHNESS YET THE LIKELY U.S. THREAT OF MISSILE STRIKE MAY SEE SOME ASIAN MARKETS PANTING THEMSELVES OUT OF BREATH TO IMPART  A NEGATIVE SENTIMENT TO THE OPENING OF INDIAN MARKETS. SGX NIFTY MAY TAKE THE LEAD ROLE IN GENERATING THE NEGATIVE SENTIMENT FOR INDIAN OPENING. EVEN IF THE MISSILE STRIKE TAKES PLACE ITS NEGATIVE  IMPACT ON INDIAN MARKETS  WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND SEASONED TRADERS & INVESTORS MAY USE THIS DECLINE TO ADD TO THEIR LONG POSITIONS. TILL SUCH TIME NIFTY FUTURES STAYS ABOVE THE CRITICAL LEVEL OF 5656 EVERY INTRADAY DECLINE SHOULD BE BOUGHT INTO. TECHNICALS SUGGEST A GAP UP FOLLOWED BY FLAT TO MILD CORRECTION ON TUESDAY.

 FOR TUESDAY OR FOR NEXT DAY OR TWO, NIFTY FUTURE HAS INITIAL RESISTANCE AROUND  5737  SUSTAINING ABOVE WHICH FOR A FEW MINUTES MAY SEE HIGHER LEVELS OF  5757 TO 5767 FOLLOWED BY  A KISS OF THE 5800 FUTURE LEVELS. IN ANY CASE A HEROIC BREACH  & SUSTAINING ABOVE 5789  FOR A FEW MINUTES MAY SEE THE  BEARS VANISHING FROM THE OUTSTRETCHED  VIEW OF THE BULLS CLEARING  & MAKING IT EASY FOR THE BULLS TO CLIMB THE MOUNTAINOUS PATH TILL EVEN 6000 LEVELS IN JUST A FEW DAYS. .

 ON ANY OF THE DAYS AHEAD, A FAILURE ON THE PART OF BULLS  TO BREACH AND MORE IMPORTANTLY SUSTAIN ABOVE 5737 FUTURE LEVELS MAY SEE BEARS PULLING THEIR STRING THAT MAY  SEE NIFTY FUTURES SLIDING TOWARDS  THE CRITICAL SUPPORT OF 5670 INITIALLY FOLLOWED BY 5656 TO 5650 FUTURE LEVELS. INCAPABILITY OF THE BULLS TO PROTECT NIFTY FUTURES FROM SLIDING & SUSTAINING BELOW 5656 TO 5650 ZONE MAY ENCOURAGE THE BEARS IN ADDING TO THEIR INTRADAY SHORT POSITIONS THAT MAY SEE FURTHER SLIDE TOWARDS 5630, BELOW WHICH EVEN 5610 OR EVEN SUB 5600 LEVELS TOWARDS 5588 TO 5580   FROM WHERE THE BEARS  CAN HAVE A CLEAR VIEW  OF THE FRIDAY’S ATTRACTIVE GAP LOW OF 5555 BY FIGHTING THEIR WAY THROUGH THE WIDE STRETCHED  LEGS OF THE BULLS  LINED UP AROUND 5566 FUTURE LEVELS.     

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