MARKETS FOR 31 JULY

OUT OF 20 TRADING DAYS IN THE MONTH OF JULY STARTING FROM THE 2ND JULY TILL EXPIRY DAY OF 27TH JULY SPOT NIFTY HAD MADE 17 BEARISH RED CANDLES & ONLY 3 BULLISH GREEN CANDLES AS CAN BE SEEN IN THE DAILY CHART ABOVE. SO, A SOLID GREEN CANDLE ON MONDAY SETS THE BULLISH PACE FOR THIS WEEK WITH MAJOR EVENTS LIKE RBI GOVERNOR’S LIKELY RATE CUT AND FED MEETING IN U.S. BOTH SCHEDULED FOR TUESDAY, THE END OF THE MONTH. MOST LIKELY THE MARKETS
ARE ALL SET FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS OF RISE WITH IN BETWEEN PATCHES OF PAUSES TO WEED OUT WEAKER HANDS. AFTER 5 WEEKS OF MEGA RISE FROM 4TH JUNE LOWS OF 4770 TILL 10TH JULY HIGH OF 5348, NIFTY AS WAS MENTIONED EARLIER TOOK 3 WEEKS OF PAUSE BY FALLING TILL 5032 ON THE EXPIRY DAY BUT ONLY TO BOUNCE BACK FROM FRIDAY & CONTINUED TILL MONDAY’S HIGH OF 5206. MORE INTERESTING TO NOTE IS THAT NIFTY TOOK 25 TRADING DAYS AFTER THE 4TH JUNE LOW OF 4770 TO RISE TILL 10TH JULY HIGH OF 5348 . WHERE AS, IN AS LONG AS 20 TRADING DAYS NIFTY COULD MANAGE TO FALL JUST AROUND 50% OF THE RISE THUS INDICATING THE BIOS & MOMENTUM CONTINUING TO BE IN FAVOR OF THE BULLS & A FAVORABLE ANNOUNCEMENT FROM THE RBI GOVERNOR FOLLOWED BY MORE IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT FROM FED IN U.S. CAN SEE NIFTY MOVING UP IN LIGHTENING SPEED TO SMASH THE SPOT NIFTY RESISTANCES OF 5258 & 5267 TO INCH UP AND NEUTRALIZE THE NAUGHTY HARAMI OF 11TH JULY TO EYE FOR THE 10TH JULY HIGH OF 5348 TO RESUME THE BULL RUN.

WELL, IN STOCK MARKETS EVENTS NEVER HAPPEN AS PER THE EXPECTATIONS & EXPECTED PRICE LEVELS GET DELAYED TO THE POINT OF DISAPPOINTMENT & FRUSTRATION. SO, ALTHOUGH THINGS CERTAINLY LOOK BULLISH YET ONE HAS TO WAIT AND SEE THE OUTCOME OF RBI MEETING AS WELL AS FED ANNOUNCEMENT IN U.S BEFORE TAKING ANY FURTHER LONG POSITIONS TO ADD TO THE HELD ONES INITIATED AT THE END OF EXPIRY DAY. EVEN IF THE LIKELY TWO EVENTS TURN OUT TO FAVOR THE MARKETS, BE ABSOLUTELY SURE THE EXTERNAL OPERATORS WILL RIG UP THE EUROPEAN ISSUE AGAIN AND AGAIN TO PULL THE MARKETS DOWN. SO IT IS WISER TO BOOK TIMELY PROFIT THEN TO FALL PRAY TO THE OPERATORS TO MOURN LATER. TECHNICALLY THE MONTHLY INDICATORS CONTINUE TO GENERATE BULLISH SIGNALS AND THE CLOSE OF THE JULY MONTH ON TUESDAY 31ST JULY ABOVE THE MONSTROUS BULLISH JUNE CANDLE OF JUNE MONTH WILL CERTAINLY SEND THE BEARS PACKING DURING THE EARLY DAYS OF AUGUST EVEN THOUGH AUGUST MONTH HISTORICALLY ENJOYS THE SAME NASTY REPUTATION AS THE OTHER DEADLY MONTHS OF OCTOBER & MAY. SO KEEP YOUR FINGERS CROSSED AND QUIETLY BUY 5300 OR 5200 PUTS AS SPOT NIFTY APPROACHES THE 11TH JULY NAUGHTY HARAMI HIGH OF 5336 SPOT, WITH A TIGHT STOP LOSS ABOVE 5350 TO REVERSE FOR LONGS. 34 MONTHLY EMA IS CAMPING AROUND 5202 ABOVE WHICH NIFTY SPOT NEEDS TO CLOSE ON TUESDAY 31ST JULY IN ORDER TO KEEP ALIVE THE HOPES OF BULLS FOR INITIAL DAYS OF AUGUST. DURING THE MEGA BULLISH MONTH OF JUNE NIFTY SPOT HAD MADE A HIGH OF 5286 TO CLOSE THE MONTH AT 5278 SPOT. SO, EVEN WITH THE RBI ADDED PUSH NIFTY MAY MOVE UP, YET IT MAY BE TOUGH FOR IT TO CLOSE ABOVE 5286 OR 5278 SPOT THAT MAY DEPICT AN OUT RIGHT BULLISHNESS WHICH THE OPERATOR WILL NEVER ALLOW TO HAPPEN SO EASILY. IT MAY HAPPEN THROUGH A GAP UP IN WHICH CASE RETAIL HAS NO SCOPE OF MAKING ANY GAIN. INSTEAD ONE SHOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE OPERATORS PULLING DOWN THE MARKETS ON THE LAST TRADING DAY OF THE MONTH TOWARDS THE END OF THE DAY TO MAKE SPACE FOR GAP DOWN OR GAP UP OPEN ON WEDNESDAY.

IN THE WEEKLY CHARTS, LAST WEEK SAW THE THIRD CONSECUTIVE WEEK OF FALL TO CLOSE NIFTY SPOT AT 5100 IN THE FORM OF A RED GORKHA HAMMER BELOW THE WEEKLY 34 & 50 EMAS AROUND 5160 TO 5178. HOWEVER THE RISE OF SPOT NIFTY ON MONDAY TO CLOSE ABOVE 5200 HAS RAISED THE HOPE OF SWING TRADERS TRADING ON A WEEKLY BASIS. NIFTY NEED TO HAVE A STRONG WEEKLY CLOSE ABOVE 5348 THE SWING HIGH THAT HAS FORMED A WEEKLY OUT SIDE BAR TO THE WEEKLY 7TH NRB OF WEEK ENDING 6TH JULY. SO OVERALL THE WEEKLY CHART LOOK NEUTRAL AND A ROBUST WEEKLY CLOSING DURING THE WEEK ENDING 3RD AUGUST CAN TILT THE BALANCE STRONGLY IN FAVOR OF THE BULLS. THE DAILY CHARTS AS CAN BE SEEN ABOVE DEFINITELY LOOK HIGHLY BULLISH OFFERING THE NASTY OPERATORS THE RIGHT OPPORTUNITY TO PLAY THE DIRTY GAME OF FOOLING THE BULLS BY PLANTING SOME ADVERSE NEWS FROM THE READY MADE CUPBOARD OF EURO ZONE. THE DAILY INDICATORS LOOK HIGHLY OVERSOLD AND ARE ABOUT TO TAKE OFF ON THE BULLISH DIRECTION. SPOT NIFTY FALLING BELOW 50 & 200 DMA AROUND 5100 TO BOUNCE TO CLOSE ABOVE IT AS WELL AS ABOVE THE CONFLUENCE OF 34, 50 & 200 DAY EMAS WITH GOLDEN CROSS FORMED BY 50& 200 DMA ARE ALL HIGHLY BULLISH INDICATIONS FOR A NEW SWING HIGH NOT ONLY ABOVE 5348 BUT ALSO ABOVE 5630. HOWEVER THESE BULLISH INDICATIONS ARE THE IDEAL WEAPONS I THE HANDS OF OPERATORS TO MANIPULATE THE MARKETS AGAINST THE TECHNICALS & AGAINST THE GENERAL BULLISH CONSENSUS. DOW’S BIG RISE OF FRIDAY & THURSDAY MAY FORCE DOW OPERATORS TO PULL DOWN DOW ON MONDAY NIGHT TO FOOL ASIAN MARKETS ON TUESDAY MORNING WHICH WERE BULLISH ON MONDAY THAT MAY HAVE GENERATED A WELL CONCEIVED & OPERATOR DRIVEN BULL TRAP FOR NIFTY AND ASIAN MARKETS BY END OF MONDAYS TRADING.

FOR TUESDAYS INTRADAY TRADING PURPOSE IT IS BETTER TO WAIT FOR THE RBI ANNOUNCEMENTS TO ENTER FRESH TRADE ALTHOUGH RISKY TRADERS MAY BUY 2 CALLS OF 5100 OR 5200 ON INTRADAY DECLINES & BUY 1 PUT OF 5100 ON INTRADAY RISE BEFORE THE RBI ANNOUNCEMENT & HOLD TWIN CALLS TO THE SINGLETON PUT TO FACE THE RBI ANNOUNCEMENT. FOR FUTURE TRADERS A RISE OF NIFTY FUTURES ABOVE THE ZONE OF 5245 TO 5250 MAY TRIGGER MEGA SHORT COVERING TO SEE NIFTY FUTURES HEADING FOR 5270 TOWARDS 5300 AS IN THAT CASE THE SPOT NIFTY’S CRITICAL RESISTANCE LEVEL OF 5258 TO 5268 WOULD HAVE BEEN CROSSED. SIMILARLY ON THE LOWER SIDE A FAILURE ON THE PART OF FUTURE TRADERS TO MOVE NIFTY FUTURES ABOVE 5245 TO 5250 ZONE MAY SEE FUTURES SLIDING TOWARDS THE FUTURES SUPPORT LEVEL OF 5185 TO 5175 FOR BIGGER FALLS TO COMPENSATE THE TWO DAYS OF RISE AFTER THE DEVASTATING EXPIRY DAY. MARKETS TECHNICALLY LOOK BULLISH AND INTRADAY FALLS WILL OFFER GREAT BUYING OPPORTUNITY.. THE SUPPORTS & RESISTANCES AS INDICATED IN THE DAILY CHART ABOVE MAY BE USED TO TRADE SHORT OR LONG WITH STOP LOSSES IN PLACE.

Source:Queenstrade