IT SEEMS LIKE SPOT NIFTY IS RETRACING THE ENTIRE 1342 POINT RISE FROM ITS 4TH JUNE 2012 LOWS OF 4770 TILL ITS 29TH JANUARY 2013 HIGHS OF 6112 SPOT LEVELS. THE INITIAL 38.2% RETRACEMENT OF THIS 1342 POINT HAS ALREADY BEEN TESTED & BREACHED AT 5599. THE CRITICAL 50% RETRACEMENT COMES AT 5441 & THE MOST LIKELY 61.8% RETRACEMENT LEVEL AROUND 5282 SPOT NIFTY LEVELS. ALTHOUGH AT THE BEST BULLS CAN HOPE FOR THE RETRACEMENT TO END AROUND THE 50% LEVEL OF 5441, YET ONE SHOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF NIFTY SPOT IS TAKEN DOWN TILL THE FINAL CRITICAL LEVEL OF 5282 TO CLOSE BOTH THE PENDING GAPS, THE 1ST GAP WAS FORMED BETWEEN 14TH SEPTEMBER 2012 LOW OF 5527 & 13TH SEPTEMBER HIGH OF 5421 & THE 2ND GAP FORMED BETWEEN 7TH SEPTEMBER 2012 LOWS OF 5309 & 6TH SEPTEMBER 2012 HIGH OF 5260. THE DOWN SIDE RETRACEMENTS TILL 5282 OR EVEN TILL 5200 ARE NATURAL RETRACEMENTS & IN NO WAY ALTERS THE OVERALL BULLISHNESS OF THE MARKETS. ALL LONG TERM INVESTORS FROM SEPTEMBER 2012 SWING LOWS OF 5217 SPOT LEVELS MAY CONTINUE TO HOLD AND ADD MORE ON DECLINES OF SPOT NIFTY TOWARDS IT TO ENJOY THE FRUITS OF PATIENCE ONCE THE MEGA BULL RUN RESUMES SHORTLY.
IF ONE JOINS THE SWING LOWS OF 20 DECEMBER 2011 AT 4531 WITH THE SWING LOWS OF 4770 FORMED ON 4TH JUNE 2012 AND EXTENDS IT, THEN IT WILL FORM THE MAJOR SUPPORT LINE AROUND 5200+ SPOT NIFTY LEVELS. THIS SUPPORT LINE ALSO FORMS A PERFECT UPWARD LOOKING RECTANGLE WITH THE RESISTANCE LINE FORMED BY
JOINING THE THE SWING HIGHS OF 22ND FEBRUARY 2012 AT 5630 & 29TH JANUARY 2013 SWING HIGH OF 6112. THUS, THERE IS NOTHING TO PANIC FOR THE LONG TERM INVESTORS & ONE SHOULD ADD MORE LONG POSITIONS AS SPOT NIFTY APPROACHES SUB 5300 LEVELS TOWARDS 5200 IN CASE IT DOES NOT BOUNCE BACK FROM THE 50% RETRACEMENT LEVEL OF 5440 SPOT LEVELS. AS HAS BEEN EXPLAINED IN THE ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS BELOW, NIFTY IS STILL IN THE 1ST SUB WAVE OF THE MEGA 3RD UP WAVE THAT HAS STARTED FROM THE 20 DECEMBER 2011 LOW OF 4531 & THE PRESENT SLIDE IS THE 4TH SUB SUB WAVE THAT IS RETRACING THE BIG 3RD SUB SUB WAVE RISE OF 1342 POINTS FROM 4TH JUNE 2012 LOWS OF 4770 TILL 29TH JANUARY 2013 HIGHS OF 6112.
ON ANY DAY DURING THE COMING WEEK, IN CASE SPOT NIFTY MANAGES TO BREACH THE 3RD & 4TH APRIL GAP OF 5644 TO 5650 & CLOSES ABOVE THE GAP THEN THERE IS EVERY POSSIBILITY OF SPOT NIFTY MOVING UP TO CONTEST THE NEXT RESISTANCE AROUND 5755 SPOT LEVELS. A DECISIVE CLOSE ABOVE, PREFERABLY A WEEKLY CLOSE ABOVE 5757 SPOT LEVELS MAY SUGGEST THAT THE DOWN SIDE RETRACEMENT HAS BEEN CURTAILED & THE BULL RUN HAS RESUMED EVEN THOUGH A WEEKLY CLOSE ABOVE 5971 IS THE ULTIMATE DECIDER TO QUIT ALL SWING SHORTS AND GO MEGA LONG. DURING THE COMING WEEK, EVEN A RISE TO BREACH 5616 SPOT TO SUSTAIN ABOVE IT MAY GUIDE THE BEARS TO INDULGE IN SHORT COVERING THAT MAY PROPEL SPOT NIFTY TOWARDS THE 3RD/4TH APRIL GAP BETWEEN 5644 TO 5650. ON ANY DAY A SLIDE OF SPOT NIFTY BELOW 5500 MAY SEE THE LAST WEEKS LOWS OF 5477 BEING RETESTED EITHER FOR A BOUNCE TOWARDS 5600 OR FURTHER SLIDE TOWARDS THE 50% RETRACEMENT LEVEL OF 5440 BEFORE ANOTHER BOUNCE. AT PRESENT NIFTY CERTAINLY LOOKS HIGHLY OVERSOLD THAT OFFERS GRADUAL BUYING OPPORTUNITY IF AT ALL ONE FINDS FURTHER DECLINES. MOST LIKELY THIS WEEK OR THE NEXT WEEK STARTING FROM 22ND APRIL MAY START THE BOUNCE.
FOR INTRADAY TRADING OF NIFTY FUTURES ON MONDAY 15TH APRIL ON FRIDAY NIFTY FUTURES HAD CLOSED AROUND 5533 & THE LOW OF 5515 WILL PLAY A CRITICAL ROLE. A DECISIVE BREACH OF THIS 5515 FUTURE LEVELS TO HAVE A 30 MINUTE CANDLE CLOSE BELOW IT WILL AGAIN TURN THE TABLES IN FAVOR OF THE BEARS TO PULL NIFTY FUTURES DOWN TOWARDS WEDNESDAY 10TH APRIL LOWS OF 5481. INTRADAY TRADERS MAY TRADE SHORT WITH A TIGHT STOP LOSS IF NIFTY FUTURE BREACH 5515 TO 5510 ZONE AND MORE SHORTS MAY BE ADDED IN CASE NIFTY FUTURE FAILS TO HOLD 5500 TO 5494 LEVELS TO SEE NIFTY FUTURES SLIDING FURTHER TO TEST 5482 TO 5480. A FURTHER FALL ONLY BELOW 5470 CAN EVEN SEE NIFTY FUTURES SLIDING TOWARDS 5450 OR EVEN 5440 TO 5433 LEVELS.
ON THE HIGHER SIDE, NIFTY FUTURE NEEDS TO BREACH THE CRITICAL ZONE BETWEEN 5552 TO 5557 TO FORCE WEAK BEARS TO COVER THEIR SHORTS TO SEE NIFTY FUTURES BEING CATAPULTED BY ANOTHER 40 ODD POINTS. HOWEVER A DECISIVE BREACH OF THE CRITICAL FUTURE ZONE 5565 TO 5570 MAY SEE ANOTHER SPURT TOWARDS 5580 TO 5585 FUTURE ZONE. BREACHING AND SUSTAINING ABOVE 5595 FUTURE LEVELS MAY SEE MASSIVE SHORT COVERING TO LEAD NIFTY FUTURES TOWARDS 5615 OR EVEN 5633 LEVELS.
THE HOURLY PERFECT DOJI HIGH AROUND 5618 MADE BY THE 3 P.M. HOURLY CANDLE OF 11TH APRIL NEEDS TO BE DECISIVELY BREACHED BY THE CLOSURE OF AN HOURLY CANDLE ON ANY DAY, THAT WILL TRIGGER A SHARP SPURT TOWARDS 5657 FOLLOWED BY AN ATTEMPT TO CLOSE THE 3RD/4TH APRIL GAP FORMED BETWEEN 5657 & 5668 FUTURE LEVELS. INITIATING LONGS ABOVE 5557 AND AGAIN ABOVE 5617 WITH REASONABLE STOP LOSSES MAY GENERATE GOOD INTRADAY GAINS. HOWEVER FAILURE TO BREACH THESE LEVELS DECISIVELY MAY BE BOLDLY SHORTED FOR QUICK GAINS WITH STOP LOSSES PLACED ABOVE THESE TO REVERSE FOR LONGS.
IF ONE JOINS THE SWING LOWS OF 20 DECEMBER 2011 AT 4531 WITH THE SWING LOWS OF 4770 FORMED ON 4TH JUNE 2012 AND EXTENDS IT, THEN IT WILL FORM THE MAJOR SUPPORT LINE AROUND 5200+ SPOT NIFTY LEVELS. THIS SUPPORT LINE ALSO FORMS A PERFECT UPWARD LOOKING RECTANGLE WITH THE RESISTANCE LINE FORMED BY
JOINING THE THE SWING HIGHS OF 22ND FEBRUARY 2012 AT 5630 & 29TH JANUARY 2013 SWING HIGH OF 6112. THUS, THERE IS NOTHING TO PANIC FOR THE LONG TERM INVESTORS & ONE SHOULD ADD MORE LONG POSITIONS AS SPOT NIFTY APPROACHES SUB 5300 LEVELS TOWARDS 5200 IN CASE IT DOES NOT BOUNCE BACK FROM THE 50% RETRACEMENT LEVEL OF 5440 SPOT LEVELS. AS HAS BEEN EXPLAINED IN THE ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS BELOW, NIFTY IS STILL IN THE 1ST SUB WAVE OF THE MEGA 3RD UP WAVE THAT HAS STARTED FROM THE 20 DECEMBER 2011 LOW OF 4531 & THE PRESENT SLIDE IS THE 4TH SUB SUB WAVE THAT IS RETRACING THE BIG 3RD SUB SUB WAVE RISE OF 1342 POINTS FROM 4TH JUNE 2012 LOWS OF 4770 TILL 29TH JANUARY 2013 HIGHS OF 6112.
ON ANY DAY DURING THE COMING WEEK, IN CASE SPOT NIFTY MANAGES TO BREACH THE 3RD & 4TH APRIL GAP OF 5644 TO 5650 & CLOSES ABOVE THE GAP THEN THERE IS EVERY POSSIBILITY OF SPOT NIFTY MOVING UP TO CONTEST THE NEXT RESISTANCE AROUND 5755 SPOT LEVELS. A DECISIVE CLOSE ABOVE, PREFERABLY A WEEKLY CLOSE ABOVE 5757 SPOT LEVELS MAY SUGGEST THAT THE DOWN SIDE RETRACEMENT HAS BEEN CURTAILED & THE BULL RUN HAS RESUMED EVEN THOUGH A WEEKLY CLOSE ABOVE 5971 IS THE ULTIMATE DECIDER TO QUIT ALL SWING SHORTS AND GO MEGA LONG. DURING THE COMING WEEK, EVEN A RISE TO BREACH 5616 SPOT TO SUSTAIN ABOVE IT MAY GUIDE THE BEARS TO INDULGE IN SHORT COVERING THAT MAY PROPEL SPOT NIFTY TOWARDS THE 3RD/4TH APRIL GAP BETWEEN 5644 TO 5650. ON ANY DAY A SLIDE OF SPOT NIFTY BELOW 5500 MAY SEE THE LAST WEEKS LOWS OF 5477 BEING RETESTED EITHER FOR A BOUNCE TOWARDS 5600 OR FURTHER SLIDE TOWARDS THE 50% RETRACEMENT LEVEL OF 5440 BEFORE ANOTHER BOUNCE. AT PRESENT NIFTY CERTAINLY LOOKS HIGHLY OVERSOLD THAT OFFERS GRADUAL BUYING OPPORTUNITY IF AT ALL ONE FINDS FURTHER DECLINES. MOST LIKELY THIS WEEK OR THE NEXT WEEK STARTING FROM 22ND APRIL MAY START THE BOUNCE.
FOR INTRADAY TRADING OF NIFTY FUTURES ON MONDAY 15TH APRIL ON FRIDAY NIFTY FUTURES HAD CLOSED AROUND 5533 & THE LOW OF 5515 WILL PLAY A CRITICAL ROLE. A DECISIVE BREACH OF THIS 5515 FUTURE LEVELS TO HAVE A 30 MINUTE CANDLE CLOSE BELOW IT WILL AGAIN TURN THE TABLES IN FAVOR OF THE BEARS TO PULL NIFTY FUTURES DOWN TOWARDS WEDNESDAY 10TH APRIL LOWS OF 5481. INTRADAY TRADERS MAY TRADE SHORT WITH A TIGHT STOP LOSS IF NIFTY FUTURE BREACH 5515 TO 5510 ZONE AND MORE SHORTS MAY BE ADDED IN CASE NIFTY FUTURE FAILS TO HOLD 5500 TO 5494 LEVELS TO SEE NIFTY FUTURES SLIDING FURTHER TO TEST 5482 TO 5480. A FURTHER FALL ONLY BELOW 5470 CAN EVEN SEE NIFTY FUTURES SLIDING TOWARDS 5450 OR EVEN 5440 TO 5433 LEVELS.
ON THE HIGHER SIDE, NIFTY FUTURE NEEDS TO BREACH THE CRITICAL ZONE BETWEEN 5552 TO 5557 TO FORCE WEAK BEARS TO COVER THEIR SHORTS TO SEE NIFTY FUTURES BEING CATAPULTED BY ANOTHER 40 ODD POINTS. HOWEVER A DECISIVE BREACH OF THE CRITICAL FUTURE ZONE 5565 TO 5570 MAY SEE ANOTHER SPURT TOWARDS 5580 TO 5585 FUTURE ZONE. BREACHING AND SUSTAINING ABOVE 5595 FUTURE LEVELS MAY SEE MASSIVE SHORT COVERING TO LEAD NIFTY FUTURES TOWARDS 5615 OR EVEN 5633 LEVELS.
THE HOURLY PERFECT DOJI HIGH AROUND 5618 MADE BY THE 3 P.M. HOURLY CANDLE OF 11TH APRIL NEEDS TO BE DECISIVELY BREACHED BY THE CLOSURE OF AN HOURLY CANDLE ON ANY DAY, THAT WILL TRIGGER A SHARP SPURT TOWARDS 5657 FOLLOWED BY AN ATTEMPT TO CLOSE THE 3RD/4TH APRIL GAP FORMED BETWEEN 5657 & 5668 FUTURE LEVELS. INITIATING LONGS ABOVE 5557 AND AGAIN ABOVE 5617 WITH REASONABLE STOP LOSSES MAY GENERATE GOOD INTRADAY GAINS. HOWEVER FAILURE TO BREACH THESE LEVELS DECISIVELY MAY BE BOLDLY SHORTED FOR QUICK GAINS WITH STOP LOSSES PLACED ABOVE THESE TO REVERSE FOR LONGS.
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