NIFTY CONTINUED WITH ITS MEGA BULLISH UP MOVE FOR THE 4TH CONSECUTIVE WEEK & WHAT IS MORE IMPORTANT IS THAT DURING EACH OF THESE BULLISH WEEK, NIFTY CLOSED ABOVE THE HIGH OF THE PREVIOUS WEEK THAT ADDED FURTHER STRENGTH TO NIFTY. A DECISIVE CLOSE ABOVE THE CRITICAL 5975 SPOT & 5995 FUTURE LEVELS ACTED LIKE A STEROID DOSE FOR THE BULLS THAT SAW NOT ONLY HEAVY BUYING ABOVE 5975 SPOT AND 5995 FUTURE LEVELS BUT ALSO SAW BEARS QUIETLY COVERING THEIR SHORTS ON EVERY SMALL INTRADAY DECLINE FEARING THAT NIFTY WILL AGAIN BE UNTRACEABLE ONCE IT AGAIN BREACHES & MORE IMPORTANTLY CLOSES ABOVE THE 29TH JANUARY SWING HIGH OF 6111 SPOT & 6120 FUTURE LEVELS. WELL BEFORE THAT ACTUALLY HAPPENS( 2 TO 3 DAYS OF CLOSING ABOVE THESE SWING HIGHS), ONE SHOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ANOTHER DRAMA BEING ENACTED BY THE BEAR OPERATORS, INTERESTED FINANCIAL CHANNELS TO PULL NIFTY DOWN TO INDUCE A FEAR AS IF ALL THAT WAS SEEN IN NIFTY DURING THE LAST FOUR WEEKS OF RISE FROM A LOW OF 5477 TO A HIGH OF 6114 ON FRIDAY 10TH MAY WAS JUST A DEAD CAT BOUNCE & NOT THE ON GOING MEGA BULL MARKET.
AS HAS BEEN EXPLAINED BELOW IN THE ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS, A DECISIVE BREACH OF 29TH JANUARY SWING HIGH OF 6111 ON A CLOSING BASIS MAY EMPOWER THE BULLS TO STRAIGHT EYE FOR NEW LIFE TIME HIGHS ABOVE 6357. THE LINE JOINING THE 8TH JANUARY 2008 PERFECT DOJI HIGH OF 6357 & 5TH NOVEMBER 2010 DIWALI HIGH OF 6338 WILL BE A FORMIDABLE RESISTANCE LINE AROUND 6313 TO 6323 SPOT NIFTY LEVELS THAT MAY REQUIRE SUMO POWER TO BREACH THIS LONG TERM RESISTANCE LINE. EVEN THE 4TH JANUARY 2011 HIGH OF 6181 WILL ADD ITS QUOTA OF MISERY FOR THE BULLS, AS BEARS MAY TRY THEIR LAST BIT OF SHORTING POWER AROUND THIS LEVELS & BREACH OF WHICH MAY TAKE NIFTY TOWARDS THE CRITICAL RESISTANCE LINE BETWEEN 6313 TO 6323 SPOT LEVELS. ONE MUST REMEMBER THAT IN BULL MARKETS THE RESISTANCES ONLY DELAY THE UP MOVE TO TRAP THE BEARS & NEVER DENY THE UP MOVE.
TECHNICALLY, THE CHARTS CONTINUE TO LOOK EXTREMELY BULLISH FOR FURTHER UP MOVE. THE INDICATORS IN THE MONTHLY CHARTS SUGGEST MANY MORE MONTHS OF UP MOVE. THE MONTHLY RSI ABOVE 60, THE MACD ABOVE NEUTRAL LINE AND THE MONTHLY STOCHASTIC HAVING LONG HOLIDAY ABOVE 80 & NIFTY HAVING BOUNCED UP EXACTLY FROM THE 50 MONTH EMA AT 5477 JUST ABOVE THE MONTHLY PARSAR ARE CLEAR INDICATIONS OF MUCH MORE UP MOVE IN STORE FOR NIFTY THAT ENCOURAGES ONE TO TAKE THE DECLINES AS A GOD SENT OPPORTUNITY TO BOLDLY BUY AND RIDE THE MEGA BULL RUN THAT MAY EXTEND TILL 2016 END. MONTHLY BOLLINGER BANDS AFTER REMAINING FLAT FOR NEARLY 30 MONTHS AFTER THE NOV 2010 HIGH OF 6338, HAVE GENERATED EARLY SIGNALS OF EXTENDING OUTWARDS WHICH HIDES IN IT THE COMPACT INDICATIONS OF MANY MANY MORE MONTHS OF UP MOVE.
THE INDICATORS IN THE WEEKLY CHARTS ARE JUST OUT OF THEIR HIBERNATION STAGE AND ARE DISPLAYING MANY MORE WEEKS OF SHARP UP MOVE. THE UPWARD BREACH OF MACD & ITS SIGNAL LINE ABOVE THE NEUTRAL LINE WITH THE SLOW STOCHASTIC JUST JOTTING OUT OF OVERSOLD ZONE & WEEKLY RSI AROUND 60 TECHNICALLY ADD GREAT STRENGTH TO THE WEEKLY CHARTS FOR MANY MORE WEEKS OF UP MOVE & DOWN SIDE RETRACEMENTS FOR FEW DAYS ARE IDEAL OPPORTUNITY TO ADD TO THE LONG POSITIONS. ALTHOUGH THE INDICATORS IN THE DAILY CHARTS DECEPTIVELY LOOK OVER BOUGHT AFTER 4 CONSECUTIVE WEEKS OF MEGA RISE, YET THE MEGA BULLISH INDICATIONS IN THE CHARTS OF HIGHER TIME FRAMES WILL FORCE THE INDICATORS IN THE DAILY CHARTS TO BOW DOWN TO THE INDICATIONS IN THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHARTS. TILL SUCH TIME NIFTY SPOT SUSTAINS ABOVE 2ND MAY 2 IN 1 INSIDE CANDLE FORMATION LOW OF 5910 OR BELOW 25TH APRIL 2 IN 1 INSIDE CANDLE SETUP LOW OF 5853 ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS, EVERY CORRECTION TOWARDS THESE LEVELS( IF AT ALL NIFTY SPOT IS ALLOWED TO BE PULLED DOWN TOWARDS THESE LOWER LEVELS) ARE THE IDEAL BUYING OPPORTUNITY FOR GREAT GAINS.
SO, FOR THE COMING DAYS ONE MAY BUY IN CASE SPOT NIFTY BREACHES AND CLOSES ABOVE 6111 TOWARDS HIGHER LEVELS OF 6181 ABOVE WHICH MORE BUYING MAY BE DONE. SIMILARLY ON THE LOWER SIDE, IF NIFTY FAILS TO BREACH 6111 ON A CLOSING BASIS AND FALLS TO BREACH DAILY LOWER PARSAR LEVEL OF 6050 ON A CLOSING BASIS THEN ONE MAY TRADE SHORT & MORE SHORTS BE ADDED IN CASE SPOT NIFTY BREACHES & CLOSES BELOW 5910 & BELOW 5853. HOWEVER LONG TERM INVESTORS NEED NOT WORRY AT ALL AND USE THESE SLIDES IF AT ALL THEY COME TO BUY & ADD TO THEIR LONG HOLDINGS TO RIDE THE MEGA BULL RUN. SUPPORT & RESISTANCE LEVELS FOR THE COMING WEEK FOR NIFTY FUTURE IS INDICATED IN THE WEEKLY CHART OF NIFTY FUTURES ABOVE.
ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS FOR NIFTY (TILL 10TH MAY 2013 FOR SPOT NIFTY) ALTHOUGH WE HAVE DISCUSSED ELLIOTT WAVE FOR NIFTY MANY A TIMES IN THE PAST, JUST TO RECAPITULATE, AFTER THE 2008 BEAR MARKET LOW OF 2252 ON 27TH OCTOBER 2008, THE 1ST UP WAVE OF THE NEW BULL MARKET WAS COMPLETED AT 6338 ON DEWALI NIGHT OF 5TH NOV 2010. THE 2ND DOWN WAVE SAW NIFTY FALL TILL 20 DECEMBER 2011 LOW OF 4531. THE MEGA 3RD UP WAVE WHICH STARTED FROM THE 20 DECEMBER 2011 LOW OF 4531 IS IN ITS INITIAL STAGES AND THE 1ST UP SUB WAVE OF THIS MEGA 3RD UP IS STILL ON .
THE 1ST UP SUB SUB WENT UP TILL 22ND FEB 2012 HIGH OF 5630, THE 2ND DOWN SUB SUB FELL TILL 4TH JUNE LOW OF 4770 & THE 3RD SUB SUB WAS COMPLETED AT 29TH JAN 2013 HIGH OF 6111 & THE 4TH SUB SUB MOST LIKELY WAS COMPLETED AT 10TH APRIL 2013 LOW OF 5477 & NOW NIFTY SPOT IS IN ITS 5TH SUB SUB AND IS INCHING UP TO BREACH THE 6111 FOLLOWED BY 6181 LEVELS AS PART OF THE 5TH SUB SUB OF THE 1ST SUB OF 3RD MAJOR UP WAVE. PRESENTLY IT LOOKS LIKE WE ARE IN THE 5TH SUB SUB WAVE OF THE 1ST UP SUB WAVE OF THE MAJOR 3RD UP WAVE.
HOWEVER, THERE COULD BE A POSSIBILITY THAT NIFTY SPOT IS STILL IN ITS 4TH SUB SUB WAVE FLAT THAT MAY AGAIN CORRECT DOWNWARDS FROM AROUND THE CRITICAL SWING HIGH LEVEL OF 6111 TO AGAIN SLIDE TO AROUND 5500 TO COMPLETE THE 3,5,3 OR 3,3,5 FLAT TO MOVE UP AGAIN AS THE 5TH SUB SUB TO BREACH THE 3RD SUB SUB HIGH OF 6111. A FAILURE ON PART OF SPOT NIFTY TO DECISIVELY BREACH & CLOSE ABOVE 6111 AND IF IT FALLS AGAIN TO BREACH 5850 SPOT THEN IT WILL BE ASSUMED THAT THE 4TH SUB SUB FLAT OF 3, 3,5 OR 3,5,3 IS ON & NIFTY MAY RETEST 10TH APRIL LOWS OF 5477 TO COMPLETE THE 4TH SUB SUB FLAT BEFORE RESUMING THE 5TH SUB SUB TO BREACH THE CRITICAL 6111 TO EYE FOR THE NEW LIFE TIME HIGHS.
IT COULD ALSO BE THAT NIFTY NOW BEING IN ITS 5TH SUB SUB MAY EVEN BREACH THE 6111 AS PART OF THE 5TH SUB SUB & THEN MOVE UP TOWARDS THE 5TH NOV 2010 HIGH OF 6338 TO COMPLETE THE 5TH SUB SUB AS WELL AS THE 1ST UP SUB WAVE TO CORRECT AGAIN FROM THERE AS THE 2ND SUB WAVE OF THE MAJOR 3RD UP WAVE FOLLOWED BY THE MONSTER 3RD SUB OF THE 3RD WAVE TOWARDS NEW LIFE TIME HIGHS ABOVE 6357 SPOT.
SO, OVERALL TILL NOW NIFTY IS ONLY IN ITS INITIAL PART OF THE 1ST UP SUB LEG OF THE MONSTER 3RD UP WAVE THAT HAS STARTED FROM 20 DECEMBER 2011 LOW OF 4531 AND THE MEGA BULL MARKET HAS A LONG LONG WAY TO GO. EVEN THINKING OF 10K OR 12K FOR NIFTY BY END OF THIS BULL MARKET POSSIBLY BY END OF 2016, MAY BE TOO CONSERVATIVE AT THIS STAGE. ONLY WHEN THE 2ND DOWN LEG LOW OF 4531 IS DECISIVELY BREACHED, THEN ONLY ONE CAN CONFIDENTLY SAY THAT THE UP MOVE FROM 27TH OCTOBER LOW OF 2252 OR THE 6TH MARCH 2009 LOW OF 2539 WAS NOT THE MEGA BULL MARKET BUT A DANCE CONCERT GENERATED BY MONSTER OPERATORS.
AS HAS BEEN EXPLAINED BELOW IN THE ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS, A DECISIVE BREACH OF 29TH JANUARY SWING HIGH OF 6111 ON A CLOSING BASIS MAY EMPOWER THE BULLS TO STRAIGHT EYE FOR NEW LIFE TIME HIGHS ABOVE 6357. THE LINE JOINING THE 8TH JANUARY 2008 PERFECT DOJI HIGH OF 6357 & 5TH NOVEMBER 2010 DIWALI HIGH OF 6338 WILL BE A FORMIDABLE RESISTANCE LINE AROUND 6313 TO 6323 SPOT NIFTY LEVELS THAT MAY REQUIRE SUMO POWER TO BREACH THIS LONG TERM RESISTANCE LINE. EVEN THE 4TH JANUARY 2011 HIGH OF 6181 WILL ADD ITS QUOTA OF MISERY FOR THE BULLS, AS BEARS MAY TRY THEIR LAST BIT OF SHORTING POWER AROUND THIS LEVELS & BREACH OF WHICH MAY TAKE NIFTY TOWARDS THE CRITICAL RESISTANCE LINE BETWEEN 6313 TO 6323 SPOT LEVELS. ONE MUST REMEMBER THAT IN BULL MARKETS THE RESISTANCES ONLY DELAY THE UP MOVE TO TRAP THE BEARS & NEVER DENY THE UP MOVE.
TECHNICALLY, THE CHARTS CONTINUE TO LOOK EXTREMELY BULLISH FOR FURTHER UP MOVE. THE INDICATORS IN THE MONTHLY CHARTS SUGGEST MANY MORE MONTHS OF UP MOVE. THE MONTHLY RSI ABOVE 60, THE MACD ABOVE NEUTRAL LINE AND THE MONTHLY STOCHASTIC HAVING LONG HOLIDAY ABOVE 80 & NIFTY HAVING BOUNCED UP EXACTLY FROM THE 50 MONTH EMA AT 5477 JUST ABOVE THE MONTHLY PARSAR ARE CLEAR INDICATIONS OF MUCH MORE UP MOVE IN STORE FOR NIFTY THAT ENCOURAGES ONE TO TAKE THE DECLINES AS A GOD SENT OPPORTUNITY TO BOLDLY BUY AND RIDE THE MEGA BULL RUN THAT MAY EXTEND TILL 2016 END. MONTHLY BOLLINGER BANDS AFTER REMAINING FLAT FOR NEARLY 30 MONTHS AFTER THE NOV 2010 HIGH OF 6338, HAVE GENERATED EARLY SIGNALS OF EXTENDING OUTWARDS WHICH HIDES IN IT THE COMPACT INDICATIONS OF MANY MANY MORE MONTHS OF UP MOVE.
THE INDICATORS IN THE WEEKLY CHARTS ARE JUST OUT OF THEIR HIBERNATION STAGE AND ARE DISPLAYING MANY MORE WEEKS OF SHARP UP MOVE. THE UPWARD BREACH OF MACD & ITS SIGNAL LINE ABOVE THE NEUTRAL LINE WITH THE SLOW STOCHASTIC JUST JOTTING OUT OF OVERSOLD ZONE & WEEKLY RSI AROUND 60 TECHNICALLY ADD GREAT STRENGTH TO THE WEEKLY CHARTS FOR MANY MORE WEEKS OF UP MOVE & DOWN SIDE RETRACEMENTS FOR FEW DAYS ARE IDEAL OPPORTUNITY TO ADD TO THE LONG POSITIONS. ALTHOUGH THE INDICATORS IN THE DAILY CHARTS DECEPTIVELY LOOK OVER BOUGHT AFTER 4 CONSECUTIVE WEEKS OF MEGA RISE, YET THE MEGA BULLISH INDICATIONS IN THE CHARTS OF HIGHER TIME FRAMES WILL FORCE THE INDICATORS IN THE DAILY CHARTS TO BOW DOWN TO THE INDICATIONS IN THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHARTS. TILL SUCH TIME NIFTY SPOT SUSTAINS ABOVE 2ND MAY 2 IN 1 INSIDE CANDLE FORMATION LOW OF 5910 OR BELOW 25TH APRIL 2 IN 1 INSIDE CANDLE SETUP LOW OF 5853 ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS, EVERY CORRECTION TOWARDS THESE LEVELS( IF AT ALL NIFTY SPOT IS ALLOWED TO BE PULLED DOWN TOWARDS THESE LOWER LEVELS) ARE THE IDEAL BUYING OPPORTUNITY FOR GREAT GAINS.
SO, FOR THE COMING DAYS ONE MAY BUY IN CASE SPOT NIFTY BREACHES AND CLOSES ABOVE 6111 TOWARDS HIGHER LEVELS OF 6181 ABOVE WHICH MORE BUYING MAY BE DONE. SIMILARLY ON THE LOWER SIDE, IF NIFTY FAILS TO BREACH 6111 ON A CLOSING BASIS AND FALLS TO BREACH DAILY LOWER PARSAR LEVEL OF 6050 ON A CLOSING BASIS THEN ONE MAY TRADE SHORT & MORE SHORTS BE ADDED IN CASE SPOT NIFTY BREACHES & CLOSES BELOW 5910 & BELOW 5853. HOWEVER LONG TERM INVESTORS NEED NOT WORRY AT ALL AND USE THESE SLIDES IF AT ALL THEY COME TO BUY & ADD TO THEIR LONG HOLDINGS TO RIDE THE MEGA BULL RUN. SUPPORT & RESISTANCE LEVELS FOR THE COMING WEEK FOR NIFTY FUTURE IS INDICATED IN THE WEEKLY CHART OF NIFTY FUTURES ABOVE.
ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS FOR NIFTY (TILL 10TH MAY 2013 FOR SPOT NIFTY) ALTHOUGH WE HAVE DISCUSSED ELLIOTT WAVE FOR NIFTY MANY A TIMES IN THE PAST, JUST TO RECAPITULATE, AFTER THE 2008 BEAR MARKET LOW OF 2252 ON 27TH OCTOBER 2008, THE 1ST UP WAVE OF THE NEW BULL MARKET WAS COMPLETED AT 6338 ON DEWALI NIGHT OF 5TH NOV 2010. THE 2ND DOWN WAVE SAW NIFTY FALL TILL 20 DECEMBER 2011 LOW OF 4531. THE MEGA 3RD UP WAVE WHICH STARTED FROM THE 20 DECEMBER 2011 LOW OF 4531 IS IN ITS INITIAL STAGES AND THE 1ST UP SUB WAVE OF THIS MEGA 3RD UP IS STILL ON .
THE 1ST UP SUB SUB WENT UP TILL 22ND FEB 2012 HIGH OF 5630, THE 2ND DOWN SUB SUB FELL TILL 4TH JUNE LOW OF 4770 & THE 3RD SUB SUB WAS COMPLETED AT 29TH JAN 2013 HIGH OF 6111 & THE 4TH SUB SUB MOST LIKELY WAS COMPLETED AT 10TH APRIL 2013 LOW OF 5477 & NOW NIFTY SPOT IS IN ITS 5TH SUB SUB AND IS INCHING UP TO BREACH THE 6111 FOLLOWED BY 6181 LEVELS AS PART OF THE 5TH SUB SUB OF THE 1ST SUB OF 3RD MAJOR UP WAVE. PRESENTLY IT LOOKS LIKE WE ARE IN THE 5TH SUB SUB WAVE OF THE 1ST UP SUB WAVE OF THE MAJOR 3RD UP WAVE.
HOWEVER, THERE COULD BE A POSSIBILITY THAT NIFTY SPOT IS STILL IN ITS 4TH SUB SUB WAVE FLAT THAT MAY AGAIN CORRECT DOWNWARDS FROM AROUND THE CRITICAL SWING HIGH LEVEL OF 6111 TO AGAIN SLIDE TO AROUND 5500 TO COMPLETE THE 3,5,3 OR 3,3,5 FLAT TO MOVE UP AGAIN AS THE 5TH SUB SUB TO BREACH THE 3RD SUB SUB HIGH OF 6111. A FAILURE ON PART OF SPOT NIFTY TO DECISIVELY BREACH & CLOSE ABOVE 6111 AND IF IT FALLS AGAIN TO BREACH 5850 SPOT THEN IT WILL BE ASSUMED THAT THE 4TH SUB SUB FLAT OF 3, 3,5 OR 3,5,3 IS ON & NIFTY MAY RETEST 10TH APRIL LOWS OF 5477 TO COMPLETE THE 4TH SUB SUB FLAT BEFORE RESUMING THE 5TH SUB SUB TO BREACH THE CRITICAL 6111 TO EYE FOR THE NEW LIFE TIME HIGHS.
IT COULD ALSO BE THAT NIFTY NOW BEING IN ITS 5TH SUB SUB MAY EVEN BREACH THE 6111 AS PART OF THE 5TH SUB SUB & THEN MOVE UP TOWARDS THE 5TH NOV 2010 HIGH OF 6338 TO COMPLETE THE 5TH SUB SUB AS WELL AS THE 1ST UP SUB WAVE TO CORRECT AGAIN FROM THERE AS THE 2ND SUB WAVE OF THE MAJOR 3RD UP WAVE FOLLOWED BY THE MONSTER 3RD SUB OF THE 3RD WAVE TOWARDS NEW LIFE TIME HIGHS ABOVE 6357 SPOT.
SO, OVERALL TILL NOW NIFTY IS ONLY IN ITS INITIAL PART OF THE 1ST UP SUB LEG OF THE MONSTER 3RD UP WAVE THAT HAS STARTED FROM 20 DECEMBER 2011 LOW OF 4531 AND THE MEGA BULL MARKET HAS A LONG LONG WAY TO GO. EVEN THINKING OF 10K OR 12K FOR NIFTY BY END OF THIS BULL MARKET POSSIBLY BY END OF 2016, MAY BE TOO CONSERVATIVE AT THIS STAGE. ONLY WHEN THE 2ND DOWN LEG LOW OF 4531 IS DECISIVELY BREACHED, THEN ONLY ONE CAN CONFIDENTLY SAY THAT THE UP MOVE FROM 27TH OCTOBER LOW OF 2252 OR THE 6TH MARCH 2009 LOW OF 2539 WAS NOT THE MEGA BULL MARKET BUT A DANCE CONCERT GENERATED BY MONSTER OPERATORS.
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