THE TRUNCATED WEEK ENDED ON A BULLISH NOTE IN SPITE OF THE DISAPPOINTMENT FROM RBI GOVERNOR A WEEK EARLIER AND BAD NEWS FROM US ON THEIR DEBT CEILING ISSUE.. LIKE IT WAS MENTIONED EARLIER THAT THE MARKETS MOSTLY ARE MADE TO MOVE AGAINST THE GENERAL CONSENSUS HAS PROVED RIGHT AGAIN. THE MONTH OF OCTOBER STARTED WITH A BANG AND HAS CONTINUED SO FAR TO REMAIN BUOYANT AGAINST ALL THE ODDS. THE CRITICAL ZONE OF 5919 TO 5939 WAS BREACHED BY SPOT NIFTY ON FRIDAY TWICE BUT FAILING ON BOTH THE OCCASIONS TO CLOSE AT LEAST A 30 MINUTE CANDLE ABOVE THE CRITICAL ZONE THAT RESULTED IN A LAST SESSION SELL OFF ON FRIDAY FROM THE DAY HIGH OF 5950 TO FINALLY CLOSE THE DAY AT 5907 VERY NEAR THE THURSDAY’S CLOSING OF 5909 BUT FAR ABOVE PREVIOUS WEEK’S CLOSING OF 5833 SPOT GENERATING SOME FALSE HOPES FOR THE BULLS.
ALTHOUGH, THE WEEKLY CLOSING WAS POSITIVE BUT NIFTY MADE THE SECOND CONSECUTIVE WEEK OF LOWER HIGH & LOWER LOW, THUS RETAINING THE OVERALL BEARISH OUTLOOK THAT MAY SEE FURTHER FALLS DURING THE COMING WEEK SHOULD NIFTY FAIL TO DECISIVELY CLOSE ABOVE THE CRITICAL ZONE OF 5919 TO 5939 SPOT. AN INTRADAY BREACH OF THE CRITICAL ZONE TWICE & ON BOTH THE OCCASIONS FAILING TO SUSTAIN ABOVE THE ZONE EVEN IN THE 30 MINUTE CHART & FALLING TO FORM PIN BARS IN INTRADAY CHARTS & TO CLOSE BELOW THE CRITICAL ZONE IN THE FORM OF AN INVERTED HAMMER IN THE DAILY CHARTS DOES NOT DEPICT COURAGE AMONGST THE HALF HEARTED BULLS THAT MAY SEE FURTHER FALLS.
THE 3 DAYS OF RISE FROM THE 1ST OCTOBER HAMMER BOTTOM LOW OF 5701 IS PERHAPS THE UPWARD RETRACEMENT TO THE SEVEN DAYS OF SLIDE FROM 19TH SEPTEMBER HIGHS OF 6162 TILL 1ST OCTOBER LOWS OF 5701. DURING LAST WEEK SPOT NIFTY HAS ALREADY RETRACED THE 50% LEVEL OF 5920 AND THE BEARS ARE PERHAPS WAITING FOR THE MORE LOGICAL FIBO 61.8% RETRACEMENT LEVEL OF 5973 BY WHICH TIME MANY NEW LONGS WOULD HAVE BEEN CREATED AFTER THE DECISIVE BREACH OF 5919 TO 5939 ZONE THAT WOULD GIVE THE BEARS THE RIGHT OPPORTUNITY TO GO ON A SHORTING
RAMPAGE, OR THE RUTHLESS SHORTING THAT COMMENCED AFTER 2.15 PM ON FRIDAY WHEN THE BULLS FAILED FOR THE 2ND TIME TO CLOSE A 30 MINUTE CANDLE ABOVE THE CRITICAL ZONE, MAY PERHAPS BE THE END TO THE 3 DAYS OF UPWARD RETRACEMENT & THE START OF THE NEXT DOWN LEG.
THE STRONG POINT FOR THE BULLS IS THAT WITH THE HELP OF 3 DAYS OF RISE FROM 1ST OCTOBER, THEY HAVE MANAGED SUCCESSFULLY TO LIFT NIFTY SPOT ABOVE THE CONFLUENCE OF 34, 50 & 200 DAY EMAS TIGHTLY ENTANGLED WITHIN THE 20 POINT ZONE OF 5757 TO 5777 SPOT. SO, AS LONG AS THE BEARS FAIL IN THEIR EFFORTS TO PUSH THE BULLS TO SLIDE BELOW THIS CRITICAL ZONE OF 5757 TO 5777 WHICH TOO HAS THE COVER OF DAILY PIVOT ABOVE IT AROUND 5790 AND ALSO THE LEFT OVER GAP OF 1ST OCTOBER HIGH OF 5786 TILL 3RD OCTOBER LOW OF 5802, THE BULLS WILL ALWAYS TRY TO BOUNCE UP AFTER EMPTYING THE HIDDEN KITCHEN OF THE BEARS WITHIN THE GAP FOLLOWED BY THE ZONE OF CRITICAL EMA CONFLUENCE.
HOWEVER IF THE BEARS CAN MANAGE TO THROW THE BULLS OUT OF THE SUPPORT ZONE OF 5757 TO 5777 THEN THE DIGNIFIED GREEN HAMMER BOTTOM OF 1ST OCTOBER AT 5700 SPOT NIFTY LEVELS WILL NO LONGER HOLD AND BULLS MAY HAVE TO QUIETLY CRAWL THROUGH THE LEFT OVER GAP INITIALLY TO THEN RISE UP & RUN TOWARDS 1ST OCTOBER LOWS OF 5700 SPOT, A CLOSE BELOW WHICH MAY EVEN THREATEN THE 28TH AUGUST LOWS OF 5119 AFTER REST AND REFRESHMENT BREAKS IN THE TIGHT GAP TILL 6TH SEPTEMBER HIGH OF 5688 FOLLOWED BY THE SLIGHT OLDISH & BIGGER GAP BETWEEN 5TH SEPTEMBER LOW OF 5552 & 4TH SEPTEMBER HIGH OF 5460 FOR THE TOOTH & NAIL FIGHT TO SAVE 5319 FAILING WHICH EVEN 28TH AUGUST LOW OF 5119 SPOT WILL OPEN ITS GATES FOR THE SOUTHWARD RUNNING BULLS.
SO, FOR THE COMING WEEK THE BATTLE LINES ARE WELL DEFINED FOR THE BULLS & THE BEARS . A DECISIVE BREACH & MORE IMPORTANTLY A CLOSE ABOVE THE ZONE OF 5919 TO 5939 WILL SEE BEARS HANDING OVER THE CROWN TO THE BULLS & A DECISIVE BREACH AND MORE IMPORTANTLY SUSTAINING BELOW 5777 TO 5757 SPOT WILL SEE THE BULLS CRAWLING IN FRONT OF THE BEARS EVEN THOUGH THE WEEKLY 20 & 34 EMAS TIGHTLY ENTANGLED AROUND 5775 JUST ABOVE THE WEEKLY PIVOT & 50 WEEK EMA AROUND 5747 SPOT MAY AT TIMES MAKE THE BEARS’ TASK A BIT TOO DIFFICULT WHEN IT COMES TO CLOSING THE WEEKLY CHASE. IN ANY CASE A DOWN SIDE BREACH & THEN SUSTAINING BELOW THE VERY NEAR LEVEL OF 5885 SPOT OR THE UP SIDE BREACH & SUSTAINING ABOVE 5939 SPOT MAY BE THE INITIAL INDICATION FOR THE SEQUENCE OF EVENTS TO FOLLOW. DEFINITELY INTRADAY TRADERS FOR SURE WILL BE ENJOYING THE GREAT FUN BOTH WAYS.
ALTHOUGH, THE WEEKLY CLOSING WAS POSITIVE BUT NIFTY MADE THE SECOND CONSECUTIVE WEEK OF LOWER HIGH & LOWER LOW, THUS RETAINING THE OVERALL BEARISH OUTLOOK THAT MAY SEE FURTHER FALLS DURING THE COMING WEEK SHOULD NIFTY FAIL TO DECISIVELY CLOSE ABOVE THE CRITICAL ZONE OF 5919 TO 5939 SPOT. AN INTRADAY BREACH OF THE CRITICAL ZONE TWICE & ON BOTH THE OCCASIONS FAILING TO SUSTAIN ABOVE THE ZONE EVEN IN THE 30 MINUTE CHART & FALLING TO FORM PIN BARS IN INTRADAY CHARTS & TO CLOSE BELOW THE CRITICAL ZONE IN THE FORM OF AN INVERTED HAMMER IN THE DAILY CHARTS DOES NOT DEPICT COURAGE AMONGST THE HALF HEARTED BULLS THAT MAY SEE FURTHER FALLS.
THE 3 DAYS OF RISE FROM THE 1ST OCTOBER HAMMER BOTTOM LOW OF 5701 IS PERHAPS THE UPWARD RETRACEMENT TO THE SEVEN DAYS OF SLIDE FROM 19TH SEPTEMBER HIGHS OF 6162 TILL 1ST OCTOBER LOWS OF 5701. DURING LAST WEEK SPOT NIFTY HAS ALREADY RETRACED THE 50% LEVEL OF 5920 AND THE BEARS ARE PERHAPS WAITING FOR THE MORE LOGICAL FIBO 61.8% RETRACEMENT LEVEL OF 5973 BY WHICH TIME MANY NEW LONGS WOULD HAVE BEEN CREATED AFTER THE DECISIVE BREACH OF 5919 TO 5939 ZONE THAT WOULD GIVE THE BEARS THE RIGHT OPPORTUNITY TO GO ON A SHORTING
RAMPAGE, OR THE RUTHLESS SHORTING THAT COMMENCED AFTER 2.15 PM ON FRIDAY WHEN THE BULLS FAILED FOR THE 2ND TIME TO CLOSE A 30 MINUTE CANDLE ABOVE THE CRITICAL ZONE, MAY PERHAPS BE THE END TO THE 3 DAYS OF UPWARD RETRACEMENT & THE START OF THE NEXT DOWN LEG.
THE STRONG POINT FOR THE BULLS IS THAT WITH THE HELP OF 3 DAYS OF RISE FROM 1ST OCTOBER, THEY HAVE MANAGED SUCCESSFULLY TO LIFT NIFTY SPOT ABOVE THE CONFLUENCE OF 34, 50 & 200 DAY EMAS TIGHTLY ENTANGLED WITHIN THE 20 POINT ZONE OF 5757 TO 5777 SPOT. SO, AS LONG AS THE BEARS FAIL IN THEIR EFFORTS TO PUSH THE BULLS TO SLIDE BELOW THIS CRITICAL ZONE OF 5757 TO 5777 WHICH TOO HAS THE COVER OF DAILY PIVOT ABOVE IT AROUND 5790 AND ALSO THE LEFT OVER GAP OF 1ST OCTOBER HIGH OF 5786 TILL 3RD OCTOBER LOW OF 5802, THE BULLS WILL ALWAYS TRY TO BOUNCE UP AFTER EMPTYING THE HIDDEN KITCHEN OF THE BEARS WITHIN THE GAP FOLLOWED BY THE ZONE OF CRITICAL EMA CONFLUENCE.
HOWEVER IF THE BEARS CAN MANAGE TO THROW THE BULLS OUT OF THE SUPPORT ZONE OF 5757 TO 5777 THEN THE DIGNIFIED GREEN HAMMER BOTTOM OF 1ST OCTOBER AT 5700 SPOT NIFTY LEVELS WILL NO LONGER HOLD AND BULLS MAY HAVE TO QUIETLY CRAWL THROUGH THE LEFT OVER GAP INITIALLY TO THEN RISE UP & RUN TOWARDS 1ST OCTOBER LOWS OF 5700 SPOT, A CLOSE BELOW WHICH MAY EVEN THREATEN THE 28TH AUGUST LOWS OF 5119 AFTER REST AND REFRESHMENT BREAKS IN THE TIGHT GAP TILL 6TH SEPTEMBER HIGH OF 5688 FOLLOWED BY THE SLIGHT OLDISH & BIGGER GAP BETWEEN 5TH SEPTEMBER LOW OF 5552 & 4TH SEPTEMBER HIGH OF 5460 FOR THE TOOTH & NAIL FIGHT TO SAVE 5319 FAILING WHICH EVEN 28TH AUGUST LOW OF 5119 SPOT WILL OPEN ITS GATES FOR THE SOUTHWARD RUNNING BULLS.
SO, FOR THE COMING WEEK THE BATTLE LINES ARE WELL DEFINED FOR THE BULLS & THE BEARS . A DECISIVE BREACH & MORE IMPORTANTLY A CLOSE ABOVE THE ZONE OF 5919 TO 5939 WILL SEE BEARS HANDING OVER THE CROWN TO THE BULLS & A DECISIVE BREACH AND MORE IMPORTANTLY SUSTAINING BELOW 5777 TO 5757 SPOT WILL SEE THE BULLS CRAWLING IN FRONT OF THE BEARS EVEN THOUGH THE WEEKLY 20 & 34 EMAS TIGHTLY ENTANGLED AROUND 5775 JUST ABOVE THE WEEKLY PIVOT & 50 WEEK EMA AROUND 5747 SPOT MAY AT TIMES MAKE THE BEARS’ TASK A BIT TOO DIFFICULT WHEN IT COMES TO CLOSING THE WEEKLY CHASE. IN ANY CASE A DOWN SIDE BREACH & THEN SUSTAINING BELOW THE VERY NEAR LEVEL OF 5885 SPOT OR THE UP SIDE BREACH & SUSTAINING ABOVE 5939 SPOT MAY BE THE INITIAL INDICATION FOR THE SEQUENCE OF EVENTS TO FOLLOW. DEFINITELY INTRADAY TRADERS FOR SURE WILL BE ENJOYING THE GREAT FUN BOTH WAYS.
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