WEEKLY ANALYSIS FOR WEEK ENDING 06TH DECEMBER

AFTER THREE CONSECUTIVE WEEKS OF FALLS  DURING THE FIRST THREE TRADING WEEKS OF NOVEMBER, THE FINAL WEEK ENDING 29TH NOVEMBER HAD A BULLISH WEEKLY CLOSING FOR SPOT NIFTY BY CLOSING AT 6176 COMPARED TO ITS PREVIOUS WEEK ENDING 22ND NOVEMBER CLOSING OF 5995. WHAT IS MORE IMPORTANT IS THAT THE  20 WEEK EMA & SMA CONTINUE TO RETAIN THEIR SANCTITY, AS NIFTY SPOT SINCE THE WEEKENDING 11 OCTOBER HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO TOUCH THESE TWO WEEKLY MOVING AVERAGES & NIFTY SPOT HAS CONTINUED TO STAY ABOVE THESE CRITICAL WEEKLY MOVING AVERAGES. THE OTHER IMPORTANT ASPECT OF THESE WEEKLY MOVING AVERAGES IS THAT 20 IS ABOVE 50 & BOTH ARE ALSO ABOVE THE 200 WEEKLY MOVING AVERAGES CONFIRMING THAT THE LONG TERM, MEDIUM TERM & EVEN THE SHORT TERM AS WELL ARE IN BULL GRIP.

THE WEEKLY RSI TAKING AN ABOUT TURN UPWARDS  TOWARDS 60 JUST BEFORE TOUCHING 50 MARK  IS ANOTHER CONFIRMATION SIGNAL THE BULLS MUST MAKE FULL USE OF TO BASH ON REGARDLESS INITIALLY TOWARDS THE CRITICAL 6212 SPOT FOLLOWED BY THE NEW LIFE TIME HIGHS MUCH ABOVE THE 8TH JANUARY 2008 HIGH OF 6357 SPOT. SO, UNLESS THERE ARE CATASTROPHIC EVENTS EFFECTING INDIAN ECONOMY  OR THE EXTERNAL OPERATORS & MANIPULATORS REALLY WANT TO SUPPRESS  INDIAN MARKETS FOR SOME MORE WEEKS TO CONTINUE LIFTING  OTHER MARKETS UP, THERE IS A VERY HIGH PERCENTAGE OF CHANCE THAT INDIAN MARKETS SHOULD SEE A NEW LIFE TIME HIGH BY END OF THIS YEAR.

IN THE DAILY CHARTS THE ROUTINE INDICATORS  LIKE MACD,  RSI,  STOCH  &  CCI   LOOK HIGHLY BULLISH FOR SOME MORE DAYS.  AFTER TWO DOJI DAYS ON 27TH & 28TH NOVEMBER, THE WAY FRIDAY’S GREEN CANDLE HAS OPENED & CLOSED MUCH ABOVE THESE TWO EARLIER DOJIS THAT TOO TO CLOSE NOT ONLY ABOVE   THE DAILY PIVOT BUT ALSO TO CLOSE FAR ABOVE THE IMPORTANT RESISTANCE LINE JOINING THE DECEPTIVE DIWALI 3RD NOV HIGH OF 6342 &  19TH NOVEMBER HIGH OF  6212, IS A  GOOD SIGNAL FOR SOME MEGA RISE & IS A CLEAR SIGNAL  FOR BULLS NOT TO ALLOW  THIS GOLDEN OPPORTUNITY TO SLIP OUT OF THEIR HANDS.  A RISE BY SPOT NIFTY TO HAVE A DECISIVE CLOSE ABOVE 19TH NOV HIGH OF 6212  MAY SEE  BEARS SCRAMBLING FOR COVER BY RESORTING TO MONSTROUS  SHORT COVERING OF  WHATEVER SHORT POSITION IF AT ALL THEY POSSESS AS OF NOW. HOWEVER A FAILURE TO BREACH AND MORE IMPORTANTLY TO SUSTAIN ABOVE THE CRITICAL 6212 SPOT WILL SEE THE BULLS GETTING MASSACRED DAY AFTER DAY,  AS IN THAT CASE AN INITIAL BREACH OF THE 27TH NOV DOJI LOW OF 6030 FOLLOWED BY   EVEN THREATENING TO RETEST & BREACH THE DOUBLE BOTTOM LOWS OF 5973 SPOT IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

AS PER THE WEEKLY & THE DAILY TECHNICALS, THE DOUBLE BOTTOM FORMED AT THE 5973 SPOT LEVELS IS GOING TO BE A FORMIDABLE SUPPORT FOR NIFTY SPOT FOR MANY MANY WEEKS & MONTHS TO COME THAT ENCOURAGES SWING TRADERS TO BOLDLY HOLD THEIR SWING LONGS. EVEN FRESHERS MAY LOOK FOR AN INTRADAY DECLINE TO INITIATE LONGS & HOLD THE LONGS  WITH STOP LOSS BELOW 27TH NOVEMBER LOW OF 6030 SPOT. A BREACH OF THIS INITIAL LOW OF 6030 WILL OPEN THE FLOOD GATES TOWARDS THE DOUBLE BOTTOM LOW OF 5973 SPOT & ONLY A DECISIVE CLOSE  BELOW THE DOUBLE BOTTOM LOW OF 5973 SPOT CAN SEE MUCH LOWER LEVELS .

SINCE 20 NOVEMBER, SPOT NIFTY HAD REMAINED BELOW BOTH THE 20 DAY EMA & 20 DAY SMA FOR 7 CONSECUTIVE DAYS & THE  123 BREAKOUT GREEN CANDLE OF FRIDAY HAS TAKEN SPOT NIFTY HIGH ABOVE BOTH THESE MOVING AVERAGES  &  THAT TOO, TO CLOSE FAR ABOVE BOTH THESE SETS OF MOVING AVERAGES& ALSO ABOVE THE DAILY PIVOT  IS ANOTHER BOOSTER DOSE FOR THE BULLS TO HAMMER THE BEARS OUT OF SHAPE.  THE RESISTANCE LINE NOW AROUND 6100 SPOT WILL
ACT AS  GOOD SUPPORT FOLLOWED BY THE DOJI LOWS OF 28TH & 27TH NOVEMBER AROUND 6068 & 6030 SPOT RESPECTIVELY. THE TRADING SUPPORT & RESISTANCE LEVELS ARE INDICATED IN THE 2 HOURLY CHART ABOVE. BREACH OF EACH SUPPORT OR RESISTANCE MAY TAKE SPOT NIFTY TOWARDS THE NEXT SUPPORT OR RESISTANCE LEVELS.

INTRA DAY TRADING FOR MONDAY 2ND DECEMBER :

 ALTHOUGH THE TECHNICALS AS WRITTEN ABOVE LOOK EXTREMELY BULLISH FOR THE MARKETS, YET ONE WILL NOTICE THAT THE  ACTUAL PRICE DOES NOT MOVE AS PER THE TECHNICALS. NOW A DAYS 80 TO 90% OF MARKET PARTICIPANTS  ARE TECHNICAL ANALYSTS. SO IF THAT IS THE CASE THEN WHO WILL LOSE MONEY TO FEED THE OPERATORS & MANIPULATORS. HENCE DECEPTION, MANIPULATION BY OPERATORS PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN THE PRICE MOVEMENTS EVEN THOUGH  TECHNICALS FINALLY CATCH UP. HIGHLY OPERATOR INFECTED SGX NIFTY SETS THE FLOW FOR THE DAY. SINCE EVERYTHING LOOKS BULLISH TECHNICALLY, EXPECT SOME PLANTED NEWS WILL BE FLOATED EARLY IN THE MORNING TO KEEP THE MARKETS SUBDUED IN THE MORNING FOR OPERATORS & MANIPULATORS TO MAKE THE ENTRY WHEN RETAIL QUIT THE POSITION OUT OF FEAR, DISAPPOINTMENT & DISGUST. BESIDES THIS, LIQUIDITY & ORCHESTRATED NEWS FLOW ALSO  MOVE THE MARKETS IN A BIG WAY.

BE ABSOLUTELY SURE ALL SUPPORTS & RESISTANCES WILL BE BREACHED DURING INTRADAY  TO INDUCE POSITION ADDING BY RETAIL PARTICIPANTS WHO ONLY WILL BE FOOLED LATER BY FINDING THAT THE BREACH OF SUPPORT OR RESISTANCE WAS A FALSE SIGNAL. THAT IS WHY CLOSING OF THE PRICE ABOVE OR BELOW THE CRITICAL LEVEL IS MORE IMPORTANT THAN JUST INTRADAY BREACH. ANY STOP LOSS FED WILL BE TRIGGERED BY MANIPULATORS TO FOOL THE RETAIL TO FIND THAT THE PRICE REVERSES TO  MOVE IN THE ORIGINAL DIRECTION  AFTER THE STOP LOSS IS TRIGGERED. THANKS GOD, THE MANIPULATION IN EQUITY F& O IS MUCH MUCH LESS THAN THE COMMODITY MARKETS SPECIALLY METALS LIKE COPPER, NICKEL, LEAD OR EVEN NG OR CRUDE. SINGLE SINGLE LOT BID & OFFER QUOTES IN THESE WILL EASILY EAT UP ALL YOUR STOP LOSSES WHEREVER YOU PLACE THE STOP LOSS BUT ONLY TO MOVE IN THE FAVORED DIRECTION AFTER TRIGGERING STOP LOSSES.

FOR MONDAY’S INTRADAY TRADING PURPOSE, SPOT NIFTY FINDS INITIAL SUPPORT AROUND 6161 TO 6157 BELOW WHICH EXPECT THE WEEKEND BULLISH SENTIMENT WILL GRADUALLY VANISH . A  SLIDE  TO BREACH & SUSTAIN BELOW 6145 TO 6141 SPOT WILL CONFIRM THAT BIGGER FALLS ARE IN LINE TO SEE LOWER LEVELS OF 6130 FOLLOWED BY EVEN 6100 SPOT LEVELS TO BRING BACK THE BULLS AGAIN FOR A BOUNCE.

SIMILARLY ON THE HIGHER SIDE, NORMALLY ONE SHOULD EXPECT A GAP UP OPENING AROUND  OR ABOVE 6200 SPOT &  6255 TO 6260 FUTURE LEVELS. IN CASE SPOT NIFTY MOVES UP & SUSTAINS ABOVE 6200 TO 6206 SPOT, THEN ONE MAY BUILD UP POSITION TO SEE THE CRITICAL SPOT LEVEL OF 6212 GETTING BREACHED FOR MASSIVE SHORT COVERING RISE TOWARDS 6226 FOLLOWED BY 6252 OR EVEN MUCH HIGHER LEVELS. A FAILURE TO  BREACH OR MORE IMPORTANTLY TO SUSTAIN ABOVE 6212 SPOT WILL INVITE HEAVY SHORTING INTEREST WHEN ONE CAN EVEN SEE BULLS CONVERTING THEMSELVES AS BEARS TO PULL NIFTY DOWN. 

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