WEEKLY ANALYSIS FOR WEEK ENDING 4TH APRIL 2014

NIFTY HAVING BREACHED THE EARLIER CHANNEL RESISTANCE LINE AROUND 6336 SPOT WHICH TOO WAS THE HIGH OF PERFECT DOJI OF 5TH MARCH, HAS MOVED UP EXACTLY AS PER THE PREDICTIONS TO BREACH THE 6700 MARK ON FRIDAY 28TH MARCH AND IS STILL LOOKING FOR A BIT  MORE OF UP SIDE BEFORE IT CORRECTS DOWN A BIT TO RETRACE SOME OF THE 5 WAVE GAINS IT HAS MADE FROM 4TH FEBRUARY LOW OF 5933 TILL 28TH MARCH HIGH OF 6702.  ALTHOUGH NIFTY PRESENTLY IS MAKING MORE & MORE NEW LIFE TIME HIGHS & PRESENTLY  IS IN THE NO MAN’S LAND THAT GENERALLY DOES NOT ENCOURAGE SELLING BY LONG HOLDING SWING TRADERS, YET THE ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT FROM 4TH FEBRUARY LOWS OF 5933 AT LEAST GIVES A FEELING THAT THE 5 WAVE PATTERN IS EITHER COMPLETE OR IS ABOUT TO BE COMPLETED IN A DAY OR TWO FOR AN ‘ABC’ TYPE ZIGZAG CORRECTION TO RETRACE AT LEAST 38.2% OR 50% OR THE MAXIMUM OF 61.8% OF THE ENTIRE UP MOVE FROM 5933 SPOT, BEFORE THE RESUMPTION OF THE NEXT LEG OF THE MEGA BULL MARKET.

AS OF NOW, AS LONG AS NEW HIGHS WITH DAILY HIGHER HIGHS , HIGHER LOWS & HIGHER CLOSINGS ARE MADE BY NIFTY WITHOUT MAKING A LOWER HIGH FOLLOWED BY A LOWER CLOSING BELOW THE PREVIOUS DAY’S LOWS,  THE ON GOING BULL MARKET WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH HIGHER & HIGHER IRRESPECTIVE OF  WHATEVER LANGUAGE  LATE RN ELLIOTT USES TO SHOUT FROM HEAVEN TO CURSE  NIFTY. SO, IT IS WISER TO HEDGE THE LONG POSITIONS BY WRITING SOME

WEEKLY ANALYSIS FOR WEEK ENDING 28TH MARCH 2014

RIGHT FROM 10TH MARCH,  NIFTY HAS CONTINUED TO REMAIN IN A TIGHT RANGE FLAT FORMATION & IF ONE GOES BY THE HISTORY OF FLATS AFTER THE BIG RISE, ONE SHOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A SHARP BREAK OUT OF THE FLAT RANGE TOWARDS 6707 SPOT OR 6737 FUTURE LEVELS JUST AFTER THE EXPIRY OF MARCH. BEFORE THE EXPIRY DURING THIS EXPIRY WEEK ITSELF EXPECT NIFTY TO BE PULLED DOWN BY THE EXTERNAL OPERATORS TO GENERATE SOME GOOD UPSIDE SPACE. THE FLAT FORMATION IS SUCH THAT A BREACH AND CLOSE BELOW THE FUTURE LEVEL OF 6480 TO 6460 ZONE WILL SEE NIFTY FUTURES FALLING TOWARDS 6306 FUTURE LEVELS AND ON THE UP SIDE A DECISIVE BREACH & A CLOSE ABOVE 6606 FUTURE LEVELS WILL SEE NIFTY FUTURES MOVING UP TOWARDS THE CHANNEL BREAK OUT TARGET OF 6737 FUTURE LEVELS. AS NIFTY HAS REMAINED WITHIN A FLAT RANGE FOR NEARLY 20 TRADING DAYS, THE INDICATORS MAY NOT DEDUCE EFFECTIVE INFERENCE, HENCE IT IS BETTER TO LOOK FOR THE BREAK OUT OR BREAK DOWN TO BOLDLY ENTER LONG OR SHORT FOR VERY GOOD GAINS.

ELLOTT WAVE COUNT ANALYZING THE ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT FROM 4TH FEBRUARY  LOW OF 5933 SPOT, THE UP MOVE THAT HAD STARTED FROM 5933 HAS COMPLETED THE 1ST UP WAVE TILL  6TH FEBRUARY HIGH OF 6106 SPOT, THE 2ND DOWN FELL TILL 14TH FEB LOW OF 5985. THE 3RD UP WAVE HAD ITS 1ST UP SUB TILL 19TH FEB HIGH OF6160, THE 2ND DOWN SUB TILL 20 FEB LOW OF 6086, THE 3RD UP SUB TILL 28 FEB HIGH OF 6282, THE 4TH DOWN SUB TILL 3RD MARCH LOW OF 6212 & THE 5TH UP SUB TILL 10TH MARCH HIGH OF 6561 SPOT. NOW PRESENTLY THE FLAT FROM 10TH MARCH IS THE 4TH WAVE FLAT THAT EITHER HAS COMPLETED THE CONSOLIDATION OR MAY COME DOWN TILL AROUND 6432 SPOT OR 6461 FUTURE LEVELS AFTER WHICH THE SHARP SPURT AS THE 5TH WAVE WILL  START TOWARDS 6707 SPOT OR 6737 FUTURE LEVELS TO COMPLETE THE 5 WAVE PATTERN THAT HAS STARTED FROM

WEEKLY ANALYSIS FOR WEEK ENDING 21ST MARCH 2014

AS WAS MENTIONED IN THE WEEKLY ANALYSIS OF LAST WEEK, NIFTY TOOK A PAUSE DURING THE WEEK  & THE HIGHS OF 6563 MADE ON 11TH MARCH MAY BECOME A STUMBLING BLOCK FOR THE BULLS FOR SOME NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER A DECISIVE BREACH AND CLOSE ABOVE THE EARLIER MENTIONED SPOT NIFTY’S MAGIC LEVEL OF 6565 WILL CERTAINLY PROPEL NIFTY SPOT TOWARDS THE CHANNEL BREAKOUT TARGET OF 6700+ LEVELS. MOST LIKELY NIFTY SPOT MAY EXTEND THE PAUSE FOR A FEW MORE DAYS BEFORE TAKING OFF TOWARDS THE NEXT TARGET OF 6700 LEVELS.

 AFTER THREE HIGHLY BULLISH WEEKLY GREEN CANDLES, STARTING FROM WEEK ENDING 21 FEBRUARY, LAST WEEK WAS A NEAR DOJI WEEKLY CANDLE. ALTHOUGH A DOJI AFTER MANY BULLISH CANDLES IS AN INDICATION OF THE WELL DESERVED PAUSE THAT MAY GIVE BIRTH TO  ONE OR TWO MORE OF SUCH DOJI  OR CORRECTIVE CANDLES, IT IN NOW WAY SNATCHES AWAY THE EXTREMELY STRONG BULLISH NATURE OF NIFTY. AT THE WORST CASE NIFTY SPOT MAY RETEST THE EARLIER BREACHED RESISTANCE LINE, NOW AROUND 6288 AND BOUNCE UP FROM THERE. AS LONG AS SPOT NIFTY DOES NOT CLOSE (CLOSING IS VERY IMPORTANT) A DAILY CANDLE BELOW THE 5TH MARCH PERFECT DRAGONFLY DOJI LOW OF 6288 SPOT, ALL DECLINES TOWARDS THIS CRITICAL LEVEL OF 6288 SHOULD BE BOLDLY BOUGHT INTO & HELD TILL ELECTION RESULTS. MOST OF THE WEEKLY TECHNICAL INDICATORS POINT TOWARDS FURTHER UP MOVE ALTHOUGH A CLOSE BELOW 6500 SPOT ON ANY DAY DURING THE COMING TRUNCATED WEEK MAY SEND INITIAL JITTERS FOR THE WEAKER BULLS, YET THE WEEKLY CLOSING MAY SEE SPOT NIFTY BOUNCING UP TO CLOSE NEAR OR ABOVE 6500 SPOT FAILING WHICH THE BEARS MAY RULE NIFTY FOR SOME CORRECTION.

IN THE DAILY CHARTS  ALTHOUGH THE INDICATORS CERTAINLY LOOK HIGHLY OVERBOUGHT & THREATEN WEAKER HANDS FOR A SLIDE , YET THE ROBUST WEEKLY INDICATORS WILL ALWAYS GUIDE SEASONED TRADERS & STRONG HANDS INCLUDING THE WHALES TO BOLDLY BUY THE DECLINES . ON A DAILY BASIS, SPOT NIFTY NEEDS TO DECISIVELY BREACH  (CERTAINLY NOT THROUGH A WELL PLOTTED GAP UP ABOVE IT TO FALL & CLOSE BELOW IT) THE CRITICAL LEVEL OF 6565 SPOT TO TRIGGER MASSIVE SHORT COVERING. SIMILARLY ON THE LOWER SIDE A DECISIVE BREACH OF FRIDAY’S PANICKY LOW OF 6432 SPOT MAY SEND SHIVERS TO

WEEKLY ANALYSIS FOR WEEK ENDING 14TH MARCH 2014

IT WAS AN  EXTREMELY TRIUMPHANT WEEK FOR NIFTY & IT HAS MOVED EXACTLY AS PER THE WEEKLY ANALYSIS OF LAST WEEK. THE BREACH OF THE RESISTANCE LINE COMING FROM THE EARLIER HIGHS FOLLOWED BY THE DECISIVE BREACH OF  THE CRITICAL  LEVEL OF 6358 SPOT SAW NIFTY BEING CATAPULTED TOWARDS 6537 SPOT LEVELS JUST MISSING THE MAGIC LEVEL OF 6565 AS WAS INDICATED LAST WEEK. SO THE EARLIER HIGH OF 6415 WAS ENTIRELY SKIPPED  TO MAKE A NEW LIFE TIME HIGH OF 6537. ALTHOUGH A NEW HIGH IS GENERALLY BOUGHT INTO BUT THE POINT TO BE NOTED IS BUYING TO BE DONE AFTER A PAUSE. SO, LOOK FOR A PAUSE OR INTRADAY OR EVEN A FEW DAYS OF MILD CORRECTION TO BUY  & ADD TO THE LONG POSITIONS TO RIDE THE MEGA BULL RUN.

IN THE WEEKLY CHARTS, THE MONSTER GREEN WEEKLY CANDLE OF LAST WEEK IS ONE OF THE LARGEST WEEKLY GREEN CANDLES AFTER THE  22ND MAY 2009 ELECTION RESULT CANDLE OR THE GREEN CANDLE OF WEEK ENDING  6TH SEPTEMBER 2013.& AFTER A WELL DESERVED  PAUSE ONE SHOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE MANY MORE MONSTER GREEN CANDLES GETTING FORMED.  THE WEEKLY INDICATORS ARE STILL LOOKING EXTREMELY ROBUST FOR MANY MORE WEEKS OF BULLISHNESS. THE WEEKLY MACD & ITS SIGNAL LINES  MAKING A HOOK ABOVE THE NEUTRAL LINE  COUPLED WITH WEEKLY RSI  BREAKING OUT OF ITS RESISTANCE AROUND 50 MARK TO SHOOT UP TOWARDS  66 MAY SEE MANY MORE WEEKS OF BULLISHNESS WITH SOME MILD PAUSE OR PROFIT BOOKING DECLINE IN BETWEEN. SO BUY DECLINES SHOULD CONTINUE  TO BE THE MAIN THEME OF BOTH SWING & INTRADAY TRADERS TO RIDE THE MEGA BULL RUN.

 AS CAN BE SEEN IN THE DAILY CHART ABOVE, THE FOUR MONTH OLD CHANNEL HAS BEEN DECISIVELY BREACHED TOWARDS HIGHER SIDE AND AFTER AN ATTEMPT TO GET ATTRACTED TOWARDS THE CHANNEL HIGHS NIFTY SPOT WILL AGAIN REBOUND FROM OR JUST SHORT OF THE CHANNEL HIGHS  OF 6303 OR EARLIER 9TH DECEMBER LIFE TIME HIGHS OF 6415 SPOT, UP TOWARDS 6700+ LEVELS BEFORE ANY MEANINGFUL CORRECTION SETS IN. ALTHOUGH THE DAILY INDICATORS LOOK HIGHLY OVERBOUGHT BUT THESE DAILY INDICATORS WILL BOW DOWN TO THE HIGHLY BULLISH LOOKING  WEEKLY & MONTHLY INDICATORS THAT WILL ATTRACT HEAVY BUYING INTEREST ON EVERY DECLINE INDICATED BY THE OVERBOUGHT LOOKING DAILY INDICATORS. HAVE STOP LOSS BELOW SPOT LEVEL OF 6454 & BOLDLY BUY THE INTRADAY DECLINES IF AT ALL  SPOT NIFTY COMES TOWARDS THIS 6454 LEVEL ON ANY DAY.

ALTHOUGH ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT STARTING FROM  4TH FEBRUARY LOW OF 5933 TILL 7TH MARCH HIGH OF 6537 INDICATE EITHER THE COMPLETION OF OR NEAR COMPLETION OF 5 WAVE PATTERN WITH 1ST UP TILL 12TH FEB HIGH OF 6106, 2ND DOWN TILL 14TH FEB LOW OF  5985, 3RD UP TILL  28TH FEB  HIGH OF 6282, 4TH DWN TILL  3RD MARCH LOW OF 6212 & 5TH UP TILL 7TH MARCH HIGH OF 6537 SPOT. ALTHOUGH ELLIOTT WAVE IS ONE OF THE MOST CONFUSING & TIME WASTING

WEEKLY ANALYSIS FOR WEEK ENDING 7TH MARCH 2014

THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY TURNED OUT TO BE EXTREMELY BULLISH FOR NIFTY & IF ONE GOES BY THE INDICATIONS OF THE WEEKLY & THE MONTHLY CHARTS, THEN ONE CAN EXPECT MUCH HIGHER LEVELS IN NIFTY TOWARDS 6565 SPOT THAT SHOULD ENCOURAGE ONE TO BUY THE DECLINES AND HOLD LONG POSITIONS FOR VERY GOOD GAINS IN NEAR FUTURE. THE MONSTER WEEKLY GREEN CANDLE FOR THE WEEKENDING 28TH FEBRUARY  CLOSING HIGH ABOVE THE HIGHS OF PREVIOUS 4  WEEKS & CLOSING THE  BIG GAP BETWEEN THE LOWS OF WEEK ENDING  24TH JANUARY AT 6242 & THE HIGH OF WEEK ENDING  30TH JANUARY AT  6188 SPOT IS ANOTHER BULLISH SIGNAL TO SUPPLEMENT THE BULLISH WEEKLY INDICATORS LIKE RSI, STOCH, CCI & MACD. ALTHOUGH THE DAILY INDICATORS ARE DISPLAYING OVERBOUGHT SIGNALS AS CAN BE SEEN IN THE DAILY CHART OF SPOT NIFTY ABOVE, THE  STRENGTH OF WEEKLY INDICATORS & MONTHLY INDICATORS SUGGEST THAT THE OVERBOUGHT INDICATIONS FROM THE DAILY CHARTS WILL BE SHORT LIVED TO RESUME THE BULL RUN AFTER A PAUSE OR MINOR FIBO RELATED CORRECTION  FOR A FEW DAYS.

A CLOSER LOOK AT THE DAILY CHART ABOVE SUGGESTS THAT SPOT NIFTY IS LIKELY TO MEET MASSIVE RESISTANCE AROUND 6313 TO 6323 SPOT  AS THE RESISTANCE LINE COMING FROM 9TH DECEMBER HIGH OF 6415 & JOINING THROUGH 23RD JANUARY HIGH OF 6355 IS LIKELY TO MEET NIFTY AROUND 6313 TO 6323 SPOT LEVELS. IN CASE SPOT NIFTY FAILS TO DECISIVELY BREACH THIS RESISTANCE LINE AROUND 6313 TO 6323 & MORE IMPORTANTLY FAILS TO CLOSE ABOVE IT THEN ONE CAN SEE MASSIVE BEAR HAMMERING TO PULL NIFTY DOWN TOWARDS 6161 TO RISE AGAIN. MORE IMPORTANT THAN THE LEVEL OF 6313 TO 6323 IS THE SPOT LEVEL OF 6358 A DECISIVE  BREACH AND CLOSE ABOVE WHICH CAN EASILY SKIP THE EARLIER LIFE TIME HIGH OF 6415 TO SEE 6565 SPOT IN QUICK TIME. CUNNING TRADERS MAY TRY BUTTERING THEIR SHORTING FINGERS TO TRADE SHORT AS SPOT NIFTY CROSSES 6300 WITH STRICT STOP LOSS ABOVE 6358 SPOT TO ENTIRELY DISCARD THE SHORTS AND GO MEGA LONG ABOVE 6358 SPOT.  ALTHOUGH BREACH OF 6175 ON THE DOWN SIDE IS TOUGH  BUT IF IT IS BREACHED ON A CLOSING BASIS THEN ONE SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR BIGGER FALLS BEFORE RISING AGAIN TOWARDS NEW LIFE TIME HIGHS.

INTRADAY TRADING FOR MONDAY 3RD MARCH   NIFTY SPOT HAD CLOSED AROUND 6268 ON FRIDAY. NEGATIVE DIVERGENCE DISPLAYED BY INDICATORS IN THE HOURLY & HALF HOURLY CHARTS COUPLED WITH OVERBOUGHT INDICATIONS IN THE DAILY CHARTS AS CAN BE SEEN IN THE CHART OF SPOT NIFTY ABOVE MAY SEE SELL OFF  IN CASE NIFTY OPENS WITH A BIGGER GAP UP. INITIAL RESISTANCE MAY COME AROUND