WEEKLY ANALYSIS FOR WEEK ENDING 28TH MARCH 2014

RIGHT FROM 10TH MARCH,  NIFTY HAS CONTINUED TO REMAIN IN A TIGHT RANGE FLAT FORMATION & IF ONE GOES BY THE HISTORY OF FLATS AFTER THE BIG RISE, ONE SHOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A SHARP BREAK OUT OF THE FLAT RANGE TOWARDS 6707 SPOT OR 6737 FUTURE LEVELS JUST AFTER THE EXPIRY OF MARCH. BEFORE THE EXPIRY DURING THIS EXPIRY WEEK ITSELF EXPECT NIFTY TO BE PULLED DOWN BY THE EXTERNAL OPERATORS TO GENERATE SOME GOOD UPSIDE SPACE. THE FLAT FORMATION IS SUCH THAT A BREACH AND CLOSE BELOW THE FUTURE LEVEL OF 6480 TO 6460 ZONE WILL SEE NIFTY FUTURES FALLING TOWARDS 6306 FUTURE LEVELS AND ON THE UP SIDE A DECISIVE BREACH & A CLOSE ABOVE 6606 FUTURE LEVELS WILL SEE NIFTY FUTURES MOVING UP TOWARDS THE CHANNEL BREAK OUT TARGET OF 6737 FUTURE LEVELS. AS NIFTY HAS REMAINED WITHIN A FLAT RANGE FOR NEARLY 20 TRADING DAYS, THE INDICATORS MAY NOT DEDUCE EFFECTIVE INFERENCE, HENCE IT IS BETTER TO LOOK FOR THE BREAK OUT OR BREAK DOWN TO BOLDLY ENTER LONG OR SHORT FOR VERY GOOD GAINS.

ELLOTT WAVE COUNT ANALYZING THE ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT FROM 4TH FEBRUARY  LOW OF 5933 SPOT, THE UP MOVE THAT HAD STARTED FROM 5933 HAS COMPLETED THE 1ST UP WAVE TILL  6TH FEBRUARY HIGH OF 6106 SPOT, THE 2ND DOWN FELL TILL 14TH FEB LOW OF 5985. THE 3RD UP WAVE HAD ITS 1ST UP SUB TILL 19TH FEB HIGH OF6160, THE 2ND DOWN SUB TILL 20 FEB LOW OF 6086, THE 3RD UP SUB TILL 28 FEB HIGH OF 6282, THE 4TH DOWN SUB TILL 3RD MARCH LOW OF 6212 & THE 5TH UP SUB TILL 10TH MARCH HIGH OF 6561 SPOT. NOW PRESENTLY THE FLAT FROM 10TH MARCH IS THE 4TH WAVE FLAT THAT EITHER HAS COMPLETED THE CONSOLIDATION OR MAY COME DOWN TILL AROUND 6432 SPOT OR 6461 FUTURE LEVELS AFTER WHICH THE SHARP SPURT AS THE 5TH WAVE WILL  START TOWARDS 6707 SPOT OR 6737 FUTURE LEVELS TO COMPLETE THE 5 WAVE PATTERN THAT HAS STARTED FROM
THE 4TH FEB LOW OF 5933 SPOT OR  6006 FUTURE LEVELS..( TRADERS & INVESTORS MUST KEEP IN MIND THAT ONLY TWO THINGS ARE ALWAYS RIGHT IN ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS. THE FIRST BEING NO TWO ANALYSTS WILL AGREE ON THE WAVE COUNT & SECONDLY IN THE MODERN WAVE COUNT 3RD WAVE IS GENERALLY THE SMALLEST WAVE CONTRARY TO THE RULE THAT 3RD WAVE IS NEVER THE SMALLEST WAV )

TRADING LEVELS TILL SUCH TIME EITHER 6606 IS DECISIVELY BREACHED ON THE HIGHER SIDE OR 6461 FUTURE LEVELS ARE DECISIVELY BREACHED ON THE DOWN SIDE THIS FLAT CONDITION OF NIFTY FUTURES WILL CONTINUE  WITH AN OVER ALL DAILY MOVEMENT OF 40 TO 50 POINTS FOR NIFTY FROM DAILY HIGH TO LOW THUS OFFERING GREAT INTRADAY TRADING OPPORTUNITY FOR TRADERS WHO WILL BE LOOKING FOR SOME UP SIDE TO TRADE SHORT & TO GO LONG ON SOME DOWN SLIDE FOR THE INTRADAY GAIN. AFTER  3 HIGHLY BULLISH WEEKLY CANDLES FROM WEEKENDING  21ST  FEBRUARY  LOW OF 6038 SPOT  TILL  WEEKENDING  7TH MARCH HIGH F 6538 SPOT, THE RECENT 2 FLATTISH WEEKLY CANDLES ARE JUST THE CONSOLIDATION AS THE 4TH WAVE FLAT  WHICH UNDER NORMAL CIRCUMSTANCES SHOULD BREAKOUT ON THE HIGHER SIDE TOWARDS 6707 SPOT OR 6737 FUTURE LEVELS.

IF ONE HAS A CLOSER LOOK AT THE 2 HOURLY CHART OF NIFTY FUTURES ABOVE, ONE WILL NOTICE THAT NIFTY FUTURE IS CONFINED WITH  TWO DISTINCT  RECTANGLES, THE BIGGER ONE BEING WITHIN  6606 AS HIGH AND 6461 AS LOW. THE 2ND RECTANGLE WHICH IS A DOWN SLOPPING CHANNEL HAS PRESENT RESISTANCE HIGHS AROUND 6535 AND LOWS  AROUND 6461 FUTURE LEVELS. THE BREACH OF THE LOWS AT CHANNEL CONFLUENCE LEVEL OF 6461 WILL CERTAINLY SEE BIGGER FALLS TOWARDS 6300 LEVELS  & ON THE UP SIDE A BREACH OF 6535 WITH VOLUME CAN TAKE NIFTY FUTURES TOWARDS UPPER RESISTANCE LINE AROUND 6606, A DECISIVE BREACH & CLOSE ABOVE WHICH WILL STRAIGHT EYE FOR 6737 FUTURE LEVELS IN QUICK TIME. IN BETWEEN THESE FUTURE LEVELS THERE ARE ALSO SUPPORTS AROUND 6480 BREACH OF WHICH CAN SIGNAL 6461 & ON THE UP SIDE 6575 FUTURE LEVELS IF BREACHED WILL TRIGGER MASSIVE SHORT COVERING THAT MAY SEE NIFTY FUTURES BREACHING 6606 TO SHOOT UP TOWARDS 6737 FUTURE LEVELS. SO INTRADAY TRADERS TRADE WITH A REASONABLE STOP LOSS TO REVERSE THE TRADE  IF STOP LOSS IS TRIGGERED.