WEEKLY ANALYSIS FOR WEEK ENDING 22ND FEB

SPOT NIFTY CLOSED THE WEEK AT 5877 AFTER MAKING A LOW OF 5853 ON FRIDAY, EXACTLY AT THE 20 WEEK SMA AND THE CRITICAL 89 DAY EMA. THE BOUNCE THAT NIFTY SAW ON FRIDAY FROM THE LOWS OF 5853 SPOT AND 5858 FUTURE TO REACH THE  DAY HIGH OF 5899 SPOT AND 5909 FUTURE IS PERHAPS THE EARLY INDICATION THAT THE PROTRACTED CORRECTIVE PHASE THAT HAD STARTED FROM THE 29TH JANUARY HIGH OF 6111 SPOT & 6120 FUTURE LEVELS, IS PERHAPS NEARING ITS END.

HOWEVER, SHOULD SPOT NIFTY BREACH AND MORE IMPORTANTLY CLOSE BELOW THE FRIDAY 15TH FEB LOWS OF 5853 SPOT AND 5888 FUTURE TO DEFY THE 89 DAY EMA AND THE 20 WEEK SMA THERE, THEN ONE CAN BE REASONABLY SURE TO SEE THE PROTRACTED CORRECTIVE PHASE EXTENDING A LITTLE MORE  TOWARDS THE BUDGET DAY WHICH MAY EITHER STALL THE SLIDE FOR THE RESUMPTION OF THE
UP MOVE OR THE PROTRACTED SLIDE MAY TAKE A MONSTROUS FORM TO DIVE TOWARDS THE FIBO 61.8% LEVEL OF 5760 SPOT OR 5770 FUTURE AFTER GIVING HEART ATTACK TO MANY HARD CORE BULLS AROUND THE SPOT NIFTY LEVEL OF 5823 & FUTURE LEVEL OF 5838 AS CAN BE SEEN IN THE CHART ABOVE.

LAST WEEKS  CLOSING WAS THE 3RD CONSECUTIVE WEEK OF NEGATIVE CLOSINGS FOR NIFTY BETWEEN THE 29TH JAN HIGH & 15TH FEB LOWS. TECHNICALLY, THE SUPPORT LINE COMING FROM THE 4TH JUNE LOW OF 4770 SPOT HAS BEEN DECISIVELY BREACHED BY NIFTY ON A CLOSING BASIS AS IT HAS CLOSED BELOW THIS SUPPORT LINE FOR MORE THAN 3 CONSECUTIVE DAYS AND ALSO CLOSED BELOW IT FOR THE SECOND CONSECUTIVE WEEK. SO, UNLESS THERE ARE DRASTIC MARKET MOVING MEASURES BY THE GOVT EARLY NEXT WEEK OR  SOME MATCHING MANIPULATIVE ACTION BY THE BULLS TO CONTEST THE SIMILAR MANIPULATIVE ACTION OF THE BEARS WHO  PULLED  THE MARKETS DOWN FOR 3 CONSECUTIVE WEEKS AGAINST THE TREND OF REST OF THE WORLD MARKETS, ONE CAN BE REASONABLY SURE TO SEE THE CRITICAL SUPPORT AT 5823 SPOT AND 5838 FUTURE LEVELS GETTING BREACHED FOR LOWER LEVELS AS INDICATED IN THE DAILY CHART ABOVE.

ALTHOUGH NIFTY AFTER MAKING THE 29TH JAN HIGH OF 6110 SPOT AND 6120 FUTURE, IN 14 TRADING DAYS, HAS MADE  10 RED CANDLES AND ONLY 4 GREEN CANDLES, YET THE DOJI FORMED ON FRIDAY AFTER BOUNCING FROM 89 DAY EMA & 20 WEEK SMA AROUND SPOT 5853 & 5858 FUTURES,  GENERATE SOME HOPES FOR THE BULLS  TO SEE SOME MORE UP MOVE DURING THE COMING WEEK. SLOW STOCHASTIC HAVING FORMED HIDDEN DIVERGENCE SUGGESTS THAT THE TURN AROUND IS NOT VERY FAR OFF. HOWEVER EVEN IF THERE IS A MILDER TURN AROUND TOWARDS THE UP SIDE, AS LONG AS  BOTH SPOT & FUTURE NIFTY DO NOT DECISIVELY BREACH AND SUSTAIN ABOVE THE CRITICAL LEVEL OF 5995, CHANCES OF EARLY RESUMPTION OF THE UP MOVE LOOK GLOOMY AND IT MAY BE THE UNION BUDGET ON THE MONTH END AND THE EXPIRY DAY OF 28TH FEB THAT MAY MAKE OR MAR THE HOPES OF INVESTORS FOR NEXT FEW MONTHS.

ON ANY DAY IN FUTURE, EVEN A CLOSURE OF SPOT NIFTY ABOVE 5970(5980 FUTURE) CAN GENERATE CHEERFULNESS AMONGST THE BULLS AND  HALFHEARTED BEARS MAY START TO COVER THEIR SHORTS THAT MAY PROPEL BOTH SPOT & FUTURE NIFTY TOWARDS THE CRITICAL RESISTANCE OF 5995 TO WHISPER SOMETHING IN THE EARS OF FM EVEN  BEFORE THE BUDGET THAT MAY SEE NIFTY PIERCING DAILY  PARSAR INDICATOR DANGEROUSLY SLOPPING DOWN AROUND 5970 SPOT.  WELL, IF THE BULLS CONTINUE TO BEHAVE LIKE CASTRATED BULLOCKS  AND THE PRE BUDGET NEWS TOO IS LACK LUSTER THEN ONE  MAY SEE NIFTY SLIDING FURTHER TO  BREACH THE FRIDAY’S LOWS OF 5853/5858 TO SLIDE FURTHER TOWARDS THE MAKE OR BREAK LEVEL OF 5823/5838 FOR FURTHER LOWER LEVELS  TOWARDS 5770 OR EVEN MUCH LOWER LEVELS TO ENTIRELY COMPENSATE  FOR THE BIG RISE THAT ONE HAD SEEN SINCE  THE 4TH JUNE 2012 LOW OF 4770 SPOT OR 4760 FUTURE.

THE RESISTANCE LINE COMING FROM THE TOP MEETS NIFTY SPOT AROUND 5936 SPOT AND AROUND 5951 FUTURE LEVELS. THE CRITICAL RESPECTIVE 50 DAY EMAS  ALSO RUNS AROUND THESE LEVELS. HENCE AGGRESSIVE TRADERS MAY QUIT THE HELD SHORTS & TRADE LONG ON A DECISIVE BREACH OF THESE LEVELS FOR QUICK GAINS BY HAVING  STOP LOSS AT  REASONABLE LOWER LEVELS TO REVERSE FOR SHORTING AGAIN.

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