WEEKLY ANALYSIS FOR WEEK ENDING 1ST MARCH

THIS FRIDAY SAW NIFTY SPOT CLOSING NEGATIVE AT 5850  FOR THE 4TH CONSECUTIVE WEEK  & THE LOW ER CLOSING OF NIFTY SPOT AT 5850 WAS THE LOWEST DAILY CLOSING  SINCE 21ST DECEMBER DAILY CLOSING OF 5848 SPOT. SO THE CHOICE LEFT WITH THE BULLS IS VERY LIMITED BY EITHER GOING LONG FULL THROTTLE  OR FACE THE MUSIC,  AS A CLOSE BELOW  THE 18TH DECEMBER SPOT NIFTY LOW OF 5823, WILL  NOT ONLY  SEE BULLS  ENTIRELY VANISHING FROM THE INDIAN MARKETS SCENE  FOR MANY MANY MORE WEEKS BUT IT WILL GIVE WAY TO THE EXTERNAL MONSTER OPERATORS & MANIPULATORS  TO ENTIRELY RULE INDIAN MARKETS FOR SOME MORE WEEKS.  SPOT NIFTY’S  WEEKLY CANDLE OF WEEK ENDING 28TH DECEMBER  WAS A 7TH NRB CANDLE WITH  THE LOW OF 5844 AND HIGH OF 5930. THE BREACH OF THE HIGH AT 5930 ON A WEEKLY CLOSING BASIS ON THE....
WEEK ENDING 4TH JANUARY TOOK NIFTY SPOT TO A HIGH OF 6110 IN NEXT 4 WEEKS. IN CASE NIFTY SPOT HAS A WEEKLY CLOSING BELOW THE LOW OF THE WEEKLY 7TH NRB AT  5844 THEN ONE MAY SIMILARLY EXPECT MUCH LOWER LEVELS.

ALTHOUGH THE TECHNICAL INDICATORS DEPICT AN OVERSOLD CONDITIONS FOR INDIAN MARKETS THAT HAS BEEN RELENTLESSLY MADE TO FALL AGAINST THE GENERAL TREND OF U.S., ,EUROPE & MANY ASIAN MARKETS, YET MOST LIKELY THIS OPERATOR THREATENED DOWNSIDE PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO HAUNT INDIAN MARKETS  FOR SOME MORE DAYS TILL AT LEAST  THE BUDGET IS OVER ON 28TH FEB FALLING ON THE EXPIRY DAY. FOR THE DAILY  INTRADAY TRADING OR FOR ANY SHORT TERM TRADING, THE MONTH LONG RUTHLESS SHORTING ON EVERY RISE SHOULD BE CONTINUED TILL SUCH TIME SPOT NIFTY  CONTINUES TO TRADE OR MORE IMPORTANTLY CLOSE BELOW THE SPOT LEVEL OF 5971. A DECISIVE CLOSE BY HAVING A 30 MINUTE CANDLE CLOSE ABOVE 5971 SPOT ON ANY DAY SHOULD BE THE GO AHEAD SIGNAL FOR THE BEARS TO QUICKLY COVER THEIR 90% OF SHORTS BY HOLDING ON TO THEIR  BALANCE OF THE  BELOVED  10% SHORTS TILL THE CRITICAL LEVEL OF 5993 IS DECISIVELY BREACHED TO ENTIRELY OFFLOAD  & JOIN THE BULLS FOR A NEW LIFE TIME HIGH.

SIMILARLY TRIGGER HAPPY BULLS WITH WATER BUBBLE PATIENCE CAN TRADE LONG ON EVERY INTRADAY DECLINE TOWARDS THE SPOT 5823 SPOT LEVELS BY HAVING A STOP LOSS BELOW 5823 TO REVERSE FOR MEGA SHORTS IF A 30 MINUTE CANDLE CLOSES BELOW 5823 SPOT. MEDIUM TO LONG TERM INVESTORS MUST USE EVERY SUCH OPPORTUNITY OF OPERATOR INDUCED MARKET DECLINE TO ADD ON TO THEIR LONG POSITIONS  EVEN IF OPERATORS MANAGE TO BREACH THE CRITICAL SUPPORT OF 5823 TO TRIGGER THE STOP LOSSES OF  WEAKER HANDS  THAT MAY EVEN SEE NIFTY SPOT SLIDING TOWARDS THE LOGICAL 61.8% SUPPORT OF  5757 SPOT(5770 FUTURE LEVEL). NIFTY LEVEL OF 5823 & 5838  ARE THE 50% RETRACEMENT LEVELS FOR SPOT & FUTURE NIFTY RESPECTIVELY.

AS CAN BE SEEN IN THE 2 HOURLY CHART OF NIFTY ABOVE, THE CRITICAL SUPPORT OF 5838 FUTURE OR 5823 SPOT SHOULD HOLD FOR NIFTY DURING THE COMING DAYS AND A DOWN SIDE BREACH MAY BE LEFT FOR THE HONORABLE BUDGET DAY TO BREACH IT IN THE EVENT OF A WORSE THAN EXPECTED BUDGET. HOWEVER IF THE BUDGET MEETS THE EXPECTATIONS, OR IS MUCH BETTER THAN THE EXPECTATIONS, THEN THE MONTH LONG FALL IN INDIAN MARKETS MAY SEE UPPER CIRCUIT AFTER UPPER CIRCUIT  TO TRAP THE BEARS BADLY REMINDING THEM OF THE DEBACLE THE BEARS HAD FACED DURING THE ELECTION RESULT WEEK OF MAY 2009. MOST LIKELY THE MARKETS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN RANGE BOUND WITHIN A  90 TO 100 POINT RANGE FOR NIFTY WITH  ALTERNATE DAY OF RISE AND FALL HAVING 5823 AS THE SUPPORT AND 5900 TO 5915 SPOT AS THE RESISTANCE. A DECISIVE BREACH ON ANY SIDE BY HAVING AT LEAST A 30 MINUTE CANDLE CLOSE ON EITHER SIDE OF THE RANGE CAN SEE BIG MOVE IN THE DIRECTION OF THE BREACH.

THE MONTH OF DECEMBER HAD THE CRITICAL LOW OF 5823 SPOT AND THE MONTH OF JANUARY HAD THE CRITICAL LOW OF 5935. NOW DURING THE MONTH OF FEB NIFTY HAS ALREADY BREACHED THE JANUARY MONTH LOW OF 5935 AND IS THREATENING THE DECEMBER MONTH LOW OF 5823. GENERALLY IN 9 OUT OF 10 CASES THE INDICES MOVE UP TO CLOSE THE MONTH ABOVE THE LOW OF THE PREVIOUS MONTH WHICH PERHAPS MAY BE THE ONLY FORCE BEHIND THE BULLS TO HOPE FOR A RISE DURING THE REMAINING DAYS OF FEB TO AT LEAST CLOSE THE MONTH ABOVE THE JANUARY MONTH LOW OF 5935 SPOT OR 5959 FUTURE LEVELS OR NIFTY FUTURE MAY CLOSE ABOVE THE JANUARY MONTH SPOT NIFTY LOW OF 5935. IN THE WEEKLY CHARTS, 20 WEEK EMA FOR SPOT NIFTY ALSO IS PLACED AROUND THE CRITICAL LEVEL OF 5823 MARRIED TO THE WEEKLY PARSAR  AT THIS CRITICAL 5823 SPOT THAT MAY ENCOURAGE THE BULLS TO GO LONG ON EVERY SLIDE TOWARDS IT. THE INTRADAY TRADING STEPS  TO TRADE NIFTY FUTURES DURING THE COMING WEEK IS MARKED IN THE CHART ABOVE.

1 comment:

ANUBHA JAIN said...

NIFTY SPOT TREND- CONSOLIDATE RES1:7980 RES2:8060 SUPP1:7835 SUPP2:7750 STRATEGY- BUY ON DIPS
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