WEEKLY ANALYSIS FOR WEEK ENDING 8TH MARCH

THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY MADE NIFTY LOOK LIKE ONE OF THE WORST MONTHS IN THE RECENT HISTORY OF INDIAN STOCK MARKETS & MORE SHAMEFUL WAS THE SLIDE IN INDIAN MARKETS  JUST OPPOSITE TO THE MOST OF THE WORLD MARKETS, SAY IT U.S., EUROPE OR EVEN MOST OF ASIA. WELL, THERE IS NOTHING WRONG IN INDIAN MARKETS TO  PERFORM SO BADLY BUT IT IS JUST HOW THE INDIAN MARKETS ARE PROJECTED  BY OUR OWN FINANCIAL CHANNELS, BY WILLFULLY HIDING THE GOOD NEWS AND EXUBERANTLY  ELABORATING THE BAD NEWS AFTER TAKING SUITABLE SHORT POSITIONS. TILL SUCH TIME THIS DANGEROUS HABIT IS ALLOWED TO CONTINUE, ONE CAN BE REST ASSURED INDIAN MARKETS WILL REMAIN SUBDUED FOR MANY MANY MORE  WEEKS & MONTHS EVEN IF THE TECHNICALS POINT TOWARDS HIGHLY OVERSOLD CONDITION IN INDIAN MARKETS.

LAST WEEK  BEING THE BUDGET WEEK, THE MARKETS MANIPULATORS HAD GENERATED UNNECESSARY HYPE ABOUT THE BUDGET & KEPT ON TAKING SHORT POSITIONS FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH OF FEB. THE BUDGET ALTHOUGH WAS NOT AT ALL BAD AND HAD MORE GOOD THINGS IN IT, IT WAS PROJECTED AS A BAD BUDGET TO PULL THE MARKET DOWN AGAIN ON THE BUDGET DAY TO BOOK PROFIT ON  THEIR
SHORTS. ALTHOUGH THE MEDIUM & LONG TERM CONDITION OF THE MARKETS CONTINUE TO LOOK HIGHLY BULLISH AS  PER ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS YET THE PATTERN OF PULL DOWNS IN SOME OF THE STOCKS GENERATED BY OPERATORS  AS WELL AS INSIDERS’ ACTION  GENERATES AN FALSE PHOBIA AMONG THE RETAIL INVESTORS AS IF THE BEAR MARKET HAS STARTED SINCE THE 29TH JANUARY HIGH OF 6111 NIFTY LEVELS. TRADERS AS  WELL AS INVESTORS MUST KEEP IN MIND THAT THE BULL MARKET IS VERY MUCH THERE & THE RECENT SLIDE IS JUST A RETRACEMENT TO THE BIG RISE INDIAN MARKETS HAD SEEN SINCE THE 4TH JUNE LOW OF 4770 AND AFTER RETRACING THE DESIRED 38.2%  LEVELS TILL 5598 OR 50%  TILL 5441 OR  EVEN THE 61.8% LEVELS TILL 5282 THE NEXT UP LEG WILL RESUME TOWARDS NEW LIFE TIME HIGHS.

SO, AS FAR AS THE LONG OR MEDIUM TERM INVESTORS ARE CONCERNED THESE RETRACEMENT LEVELS ARE THE IDEAL ONES TO ADD TO THEIR LONG POSITIONS TO RIDE THE MEGA  BULL RUN. HOWEVER SHORT & MEDIUM TRADERS MUST MAKE FULL USE OF THESE LIKELY LOWER LEVELS TO BOLDLY TRADE SHORT ON EVERY SHORT TERM OR INTRADAY RISE FOR VERY GOOD GAINS. AS CAN BE SEEN IN THE DAILY CHART OF SPOT NIFTY ABOVE, THE SLIDE IS CONFINED WITHIN A PERFECT DOWN SLOPPING CHANNEL & TILL SUCH TIME THE UPPER SIDE OF THE CHANNEL IS NOT BREACHED BY NIFTY ON A CLOSING BASIS EVERY RISE TO TEST THE UPPER CHANNEL IS A GREAT SHORTING OPPORTUNITY BY HAVING THE STOP LOSS ABOVE THE CHANNEL HIGHS.

LAST WEEK WAS THE 5TH CONSECUTIVE WEEK OF GREAT FALLS FOR NIFTY AND THE 6TH CONSECUTIVE WEEK OF WEEKLY RED CANDLES. ON THE BUDGET DAY NIFTY HAS FORMED A MONSTER BEARISH ENGULFING CANDLE WITH THE LOW OF 5671 AND HIGH OF 5850. ALTHOUGH ONE SHOULD NEVER TRADE AGAINST THE INDICATIONS OF  ENGULFING CANDLES YET A CLOSURE ABOVE THE HIGH OR LOW OF THE ENGULFING CANDLE ALWAYS BRINGS BIG MOVES IN THE DIRECTION OF CLOSE. THE BUDGET DAY BEARISH ENGULFING CANDLE TESTED THE 200 DAY EMA AROUND 5670 AND ALSO THE WEEKLY 34 SMA & THIS LEVEL MAY ACT AS A VERY GOOD STOP LOSS FOR THE SHORT TERM BULLS WHO HOPE THAT MARCH MAY SEE A GOOD BOUNCE AFTER A DEVASTATING FEBRUARY MONTH.

SO THE LOW OF BUDGET DAY AT 5671 WHICH NOW LOOKS LIKE A VERY STRONG SUPPORT MAY TURN OUT TO BE A DANGEROUS DITCH IF SPOT NIFTY AGAIN BREACHES THIS CRITICAL LOW OF 5671 TO CLOSE BELOW IT. IN CASE THIS HAPPENS THEN THE MONSTER BEARISH ENGULFING CANDLE WILL START TO SHOW ITS GENUINE POWER & SPIT ITS ENTIRE VENOM TO SEE NIFTY SPOT SLIDING TOWARDS EACH OF THE FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT LEVELS OF 5598, 5441 & 5282 IN RHYTHMIC FASHIONS OF BIG DOWN SWINGS & EACH FOLLOWED BY A DECEPTIVE UPSWING BEFORE ANOTHER BIG DOWN SWING. IN ANY CASE TILL SUCH TIME SPOT NIFTY FAILS TO HAVE A WEEKLY CLOSE ABOVE THE WEEK ENDING 15TH FEBRUARY HIGH OF 5970, IT WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN WEAK ENCOURAGING SHORT TERM & INTRADAY TRADERS TO ALWAYS APPLY THE FAMOUS SELL ON RISE TACTICS FOR GOOD GAINS EVEN THOUGH A DECISIVE BREACH OF EACH OF THE CHANNEL HIGHS AS CAN BE SEEN IN THE CHART ABOVE CAN GIVE A JUMP START TO THE BULLS BUT ONLY TO BE TRAPPED AGAIN SHOULD NIFTY SPOT FAIL TO BREACH 5970..

SO FOR THE COMING WEEK ENDING 8TH MARCH, NIFTY SPOT NEEDS TO CLOSE ABOVE THE BUDGET DAY MONSTER BEARISH ENGULFING HIGH OF 5850  TO BRING SOME HOPES FOR THE BULLS TO AIM FOR NEXT HIGHER LEVELS OF 5878 OR 5915 THE OPENING GAP DOWN HIGH OF 21ST FEBRUARY BEFORE AIMING FOR THE ALL IMPORTANT 5970 IN NEXT FEW WEEKS OF MARCH. AT EACH OF THESE HIGHER LEVELS BEARS ARE EXPECTED TO GIVE A TOOTH & NAIL FIGHT FAILING WHICH MASSIVE SHORT COVERING MAY BE FORCED ON THE BEARS TO TAKE NIFTY HIGHER & HIGHER. SIMILARLY ON THE LOWER SIDE A BREACH OF LOOSE MOTION INDUCED 1ST MARCH GREEN CANDLE LOW OF 5679 MAY BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR THE BULLS TO CONVERT THEMSELVES AS BEARS WITHOUT EVEN WASTING TIME IN WAITING FOR THE BUDGET DAY LOW OF 5671. BELOW 5671 ONE MAY EXPECT ANOTHER FREE FALL AS THE MONSTER BEARISH ENGULFING WILL TAKE CHARGE & THE ATTRACTIVE GAP OF 26TH & 27TH NOVEMBER BETWEEN 5658 & 5649 WILL OFFER THE REQUIRED STEROID  FOR  NIFTY TO DIVE TOWARDS   38.2% FIBO LEVELS OF 5598 TO 5593  & THE THEN THE ALL IMPORTANT 5548.

ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS FOR NIFTY (TILL 1ST MARCH 2013)   ALTHOUGH WE HAVE DISCUSSED ELLIOTT WAVE FOR NIFTY MANY A TIMES IN THE PAST, JUST TO RECAPITULATE, AFTER THE 2008 BEAR MARKET  LOW OF 2252 ON 27TH OCTOBER 2008, THE 1ST UP WAVE OF THE  NEW BULL MARKET WAS COMPLETED AT 6338 ON DEWALI  NIGHT OF 5TH NOV 2010. THE 2ND DOWN WAVE SAW NIFTY FALL TILL 20 DECEMBER 2011 LOW OF 4531. THE MEGA 3RD UP WAVE  WHICH STARTED FROM THE 20 DECEMBER 2011 LOW OF 4531 IS IN ITS INITIAL STAGES AND THE 1ST UP SUB WAVE OF THIS MEGA 3RD UP IS STILL ON , PRESENTLY WE ARE  IN THE 4TH  SUB SUB  WAVE  OF THE 1ST UP SUB WAVE OF THE MAJOR  3RD UP WAVE. IN THIS 1ST SUB WAVE OF THE MAJOR 3RD UP WAVE, THE 1ST SUB SUB WENT UP TILL  22ND FEB 2012 HIGH OF 6230 AND THE 2ND DOWN SUB SUB FELL TILL 4TH JUNE 2012 LOW OF 4770. THE 3RD UP SUB SUB LEG  OF THE 1ST UP SUB LEG OF MAJOR 3RD UP WAVE  IS STILL ON .

CONSIDERING ONLY THE UP MOVE FROM THE 4TH JUNE 2012 LOW OF 4770, THE 1ST UP WENT TILL 10TH JULY HIGH OF 5348. THE 2ND DOWN FELL TILL 26TH JULY LOW OF 5032. PRESENTLY NIFTY IS IN ITS BIG 3RD UP  IN WHICH THE 1ST UP SUB  WAS TILL 23RD AUGUST HIGH OF 5448 & THE2ND DOWN WAS TILL 5TH SEPT  LOW OF 5215, THE 3RD SUB UP WAS TILL 5TH OCTOBER HIGH OF 5815, THE 4TH SUB DWN WAS TILL 20 NOV LOW OF 5548 & THE 5TH SUB UP WAS TILL 29TH JANUARY 2013 HIGH OF 6111. SO TILL 29TH JANUARY 2013 HIGH OF 6111 NIFTY HAS COMPLETED ONLY TILL THE 3RD SUB OF THE UP WAVE  THAT HAS STARTED FROM 4TH JUNE 2012 LOW OF 4770.  HAVING MOVED UP FROM THE 4TH JUNE LOW OF 4770 AND HAVING COMPLETED ITS 3RD UP SUB WAVE TILL 6111, NIFTY IS ITS 4TH  WAVE WHICH MAY ACTUALLY TURN OUT TO BE A FLAT BY MOVING UP TOWARDS 6100 AGAIN TO FALL DOWN AGAIN TO COMPLETE THE 3,3,5 OR 3,5,3 FLAT BEFORE MOVING UP AS THE 5TH SUB LEG ABOVE 6111. OR,  IT COULD BE THAT NIFTY HAS COMPLETED ITS 5 WAVES FROM THE LOWS OF 4770 TILL THE HIGHS OF 6111 AND IS CORRECTING AS THE ‘A B C’  ZIGZAG TO RESUME THE BULL RUN AFTER THE PRESENT CORRECTION IS OVER.

SO, OVERALL TILL NOW NIFTY IS ONLY IN ITS INITIAL PART OF THE 1ST UP SUB LEG  OF THE MONSTER 3RD UP WAVE THAT HAS STARTED FROM 20 DECEMBER 2011 LOW OF 4531 AND THE MEGA BULL MARKET HAS A LONG LONG WAY TO GO. ONLY WHEN THE 2ND DOWN LEG LOW OF 4531 IS DECISIVELY BREACHED THEN ONLY ONE CAN CONFIDENTLY SAY THAT THE UP MOVE FROM 27TH OCTOBER LOW OF 2252 OR THE 6TH MARCH 2009 LOW OF 2539 WAS NOT THE MEGA BULL MARKET  BUT A  DANCE CONCERT GENERATED BY MONSTER OPERATORS.

1 comment:

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