WEEKLY ANALYSIS FOR WEEK ENDING 28TH MARCH

NIFTY WENT THROUGH A DEVASTATING WEEK BY CLOSING AT 5651 COMPARED TO THE WEEK ENDING 15TH MARCH CLOSING OF 5872, A LOSS OF 3.75%. WELL, ALTHOUGH THIS WAS MENTIONED LAST WEEK YET THE FEROCITY OF FALL WAS NOT EXPECTED. NIFTY HAD A WEEKLY HIGH OF 5863 & A LOW OF 5631 & THE CLOSING AT 5631 VERY NEAR TO THE LOW OF THE WEEK  THREATENS FURTHER FALLS DURING THE COMING TRUNCATED WEEK ENDING ON THURSDAY 28TH MARCH ON THE EXPIRY DAY. ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS HIGHLY OVERSOLD AT THIS MOMENT, YET WITH TWO DAYS OF TRADING HOLIDAYS ON WEDNESDAY & FRIDAY, NO BULL WORTH HIS SALT WOULD RISK HEAVY BUYING AT THIS JUNCTURE IN A HURRY WITHOUT WAITING FOR THE MARKET FRIENDLY MONTH OF APRIL.

THE WEEKLY CHARTS LOOK EXTREMELY DELICATE WITH NIFTY SPOT HAVING BREACHED THE 50 WEEK EMA AT 5636 TO MAKE A LOW OF 5631. ALTHOUGH NIFTY SPOT HAS MOVED UP TO CLOSE THE WEEK ABOVE IT AT 5651, YET HAVING CLOSED BELOW  BOTH THE 34 WEEK EMA & 34 WEEK SMA AROUND 5720, NIFTY NOW LOOKS HIGHLY VULNERABLE FOR FURTHER FALLS  IN CASE BULLS FAIL IN THEIR REPEATED
ATTEMPTS TO CLOSE THE FINANCIAL YEAR ABOVE 5720 SPOT AND IF  THE BULLS ALLOW THE BEARS  TO HAVE A CAKE WALK DURING THE TRUNCATED ENDING WEEK TO CLOSE SPOT NIFTY BELOW THE 50 WEEKLY EMA AROUND 5636 SPOT, IN WHICH CASE THE 50 WEEK SMA AROUND 5545 SPOT WILL BE MAKING ALL THE ARRANGEMENTS FOR RECEPTION & ACCOMMODATION TO HOST SPOT NIFTY TO CAMP AROUND IT FOR SOME DAYS.

THE MONSTROUS GREEN CANDLE FOR WEEK ENDING 8TH MARCH  WITH THE HIGH OF 5953 & LOW OF 5663 SPOT HAD FORMED A MASSIVE WEEKLY OUTSIDE CANDLE  SETUP WITH  ITS PREVIOUS WEEKLY  CANDLE OF WEEKENDING 1ST MARCH. DURING THE WEEKENDING 22ND MARCH THE FEROCIOUS FALL WITH WEEKLY LOW AT 5631 HAS NOT ONLY BREACHED THE 5663 LOW OF THE OUTSIDE CANDLE SET UP OF WEEK ENDING 8TH MARCH, BUT ALSO HAS CLOSED AT 5651 BELOW THE LOW OF THE SETUP, THUS BECOMING THE IDEAL TRIGGER CANDLE WHOSE LOW IF BREACHED AGAIN ON A CLOSING BASIS CAN SPELL DISASTER FOR NEXT FEW WEEKS. A FAILURE ON THE PART OF SPOT NIFTY TO BREACH AND CLOSE ABOVE THE CRITICAL WEEKLY LEVELS OF 5971 WILL ALWAYS FAVOR QUIT OR SELL ON RISE FOR SHORT TO MEDIUM TERM POSITION HOLDERS, ALTHOUGH INTRADAY TRADERS MAY PLAY HIDE & SEEK BY TRADING ON BOTH SIDES OF THE MARKETS TAKING FULL ADVANTAGE OF THE FLIRTING OPPORTUNITIES OFFERED BY THE INTRADAY OR VERY SHORT TERM MOVEMENTS.

THE INDICATORS IN THE DAILY CHARTS  ALTHOUGH LOOK  DECEPTIVE & OVERSOLD WITH SOME MOMENTUM INDICATORS, YET WITH THE BEARISH CROSS OVER OF THE SIGNAL LINE  & THE MACD LINE BELOW THE ZERO LINE WILL ALWAYS INJECT PARALYZING FLUIDS INTO THE BULLS WHENEVER THEY PLAN FOR ANY BIG UP MOVE. THE BREACH OF THE CRITICAL 200 DAY EMA AT 5670 BY SPOT NIFTY BY FALLING TILL 5631 AND CLOSING AT 5651  NOT ONLY FORCES THE BULLS TO GULP CHILI POWDER  BUT ALSO WARNS THEM OF THE 200 DAY SMA AROUND 5620, A BREACH AND A DECISIVE CLOSE BELOW WHICH  WILL THROW CHILI POWDER INTO THE EYES OF THE BULLS TO BLIND THEM ENTIRELY BEFORE TAKING NIFTY FURTHER DOWN TOWARDS THE FIBO LEVELS OF 50% AROUND 5577 & 61.8% AROUND 5448 SPOT LEVELS.

AS CAN BE SEEN IN THE 2 HOURLY CHART ABOVE, NIFTY ALTHOUGH HAS NOT YET COMPLETED BUT IS IN THE PROCESS OF  COMPLETING A  PERFECT HEAD & SOLDER FORMATION, THE NECK LINE OF WHICH IS FORMED BY JOINING THE LOWS OF 14TH SEPT AT 5527 (5530 FUTURE), LOWS OF 20 NOV AT 5548(5555 FUTURE)  & WHEN EXTENDED  TO THE RIGHT WILL MEET BOTH THE SPOT & FUTURE NIFTY AROUND 5577. SO A DECISIVE CLOSE OF SPOT NIFTY BELOW 5577 OR MORE IMPORTANTLY BELOW 5548 OR 5526 WILL SEE MASSIVE FALLS TO FILL THE 1ST GAP TILL 13TH SEPT PERFECT DOJI HIGH OF 5448 AT THE FIBO 61.8% RETRACEMENT LEVEL FOLLOWED BY FILLING OF THE 2ND GAP TILL 6TH SEPT HIGH OF 5260 SPOT LEVELS.  THE DEVASTATING POWER OF THE BREACH OF NECK LINE OF THE HEAD & SOLDER FORMATION WILL NOT END HERE BUT WILL TAKE NIFTY FURTHER DOWN TO EVEN THREATEN THE LONG TERM INVESTORS  HOLDING LONG POSITIONS FROM 5TH SEPTEMBER SWING LOW OF 5215 SPOT LEVELS.

ALTHOUGH, AS OF NOW THE MARKET LOOKS  HIGHLY VULNERABLE FOR MORE & MORE FALLS, YET ONE MUST REALIZE THAT IN SOCK MARKETS WHAT LOOKS COMMON TO EVERYONE DOES NOT HAPPEN ACTUALLY & THE MARKETS HAVE THE UNCANNY HABIT OF PROVING EVERYONE WRONG MOST OF THE TIMES. TO THIS EXTENT, A DETERMINED EFFORTS BY THE BULLS TO MAKE A COORDINATED EFFORT TO   LIFT NIFTY SPOT TO BREACH THURSDAY 21ST MARCH HIGH OF 5757 SPOT  & IN CASE THE BULLS  MANAGE TO CLOSE ABOVE IT  THEN  IT WILL BE THE FIRST INDICATION TOWARDS  DISPLAY OF BULL POWER AND WANING OF BEAR POWER. TILL THIS HAPPENS IT WILL BE BEARS & BEARS ONLY ALL THE WAY FOR  ALL THE DAYS.

THE CANDLE OF THURSDAY 21ST MARCH IS ALSO AN OUTSIDE CANDLE TO THE CANDLE OF 20TH MARCH AND ONCE THE HIGH OF THIS  OUTSIDE CANDLE SETUP AT 5757 SPOT IS DECISIVELY BREACHED ON A CLOSING BASIS THEN THERE IS AMPLE CHANCE FOR THE BULLS TO BASH ON REGARDLESS TOWARDS THE NEXT HIGHER OUTSIDE CANDLE SETUP OF 19TH & 18TH MARCH TO BREACH THE HIGH OF THIS SETUP AT 5863 SPOT, TO THEN AIM FOR THE ALL IMPORTANT 5971 SPOT IN NEXT FEW DAYS IN ORDER TO RESUME THE BULL RUN. ON ANY OF THE COMING DAYS THE CRITICAL SPOT ZONE BETWEEN 5757 & 5777 ON THE UP SIDE & 5577 TO 5548 OR 5525 ON THE DOWN SIDE IS THE DECIDING ZONE BETWEEN THE BULLS & THE BEARS WHETHER TO MOVE UPWARDS  OR TO SLIDE DOWNWARDS.

FOR INTRADAY TRADING ON MONDAY 25TH MARCH :
ON FRIDAY NIFTY FUTURE HAD CLOSED AROUND 5660 LEVELS. SO ON MONDAY THE CRITICAL LEVEL TO BE KEPT IN MIND IS  5655 WHICH HAS TO BE SAVED BY THE BULLS A FAILURE  ON THE PART OF BULLS TO SAVE 5655 FUTURE LEVELS MAY BE  BOLDLY SHORTED FOR QUICK GAINS AS MOST LIKELY NIFTY WILL THEN SLIDE TORE TEST OR EVEN BREACH FRIDAY’S LOWS OF 5642 TO SLIDE FURTHER TOWARDS 5626 FOLLOWED BY 5616 LEVELS TO ALLOW BEARS TO BOOK SOME PROFIT FOR THE DAY.

HOWEVER IF 5655 FUTURE LEVEL IS HELD AND IN THE PROCESS BULLS CAN  MANAGE TO QUIETLY ADMINISTER THEM SELVES WITH SOME STEROIDS & THEN PULL NIFTY FUTURE TOWARDS 5685 AND MANAGE TO SUSTAIN ABOVE IT TO HAVE A 30 MINUTE CANDLE CLOSE ABOVE IT, THEN ONE MAY SEE SOME SHORT COVERING BY THE WEAK BEARS TO PUSH NIFTY FUTURES FURTHER UP TOWARDS 5700 FOR ANOTHER BOUT OF SHORT COVERING ABOVE 5700 TO CONTEST FRIDAY’S HIGH OF 5707 TO MOVE UP FURTHER TOWARDS 5715 OR HIGHER FUTURE LEVELS.

SO, ONE MAY BUY IF 5655 IS HELD BY HAVING A STOP LOSS BELOW IT TO REVERSE FOR SHORTS &  SHORT AROUND 5685 BY HAVING A STOP LOSS ABOVE 5700 FUTURE LEVELS  TO REVERSE FOR LONGS. SUSTAINING ABOVE 5707 FUTURE LEVELS BY CLOSING A 30 OR AT LEAST A 15 MINUTE CANDLE ABOVE IT MAY SEE NIFTY FUTURES RISING BY ANOTHER 60 TO 70 POINTS IN A DAY OR TWO.

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