MARKETS FOR 31 AUGUST

 THE WAY NIFTY BOUNCED BACK  TO 5343 SPOT  DURING THE CLOSING 30  MINUTES AFTER MAKING THE INTRADAY LOW OF 5255 ON THE EXPIRY DAY IS A CLEAR EXAMPLE OF AN  IDEAL BULL TRAP RIGHTLY SET UP BY THE EXTERNAL OPERATORS TO TRAP THE BULLS ON THE LAST DAY OF THE MONTH. FROM THE JULY MONTH EXPIRY DAY MANIPULATED LOW OF 5032 TILL AUGUST MONTH HIGH OF 5448, NIFTY HAD BREACHED THE 38.2% RETRACEMENT LEVEL 5289 TO REACH TILL 5255. THE 50% RETRACEMENT COMES AROUND 5240 SPOT LEVELS WHICH NIFTY SPOT SHOULD
HAVE TESTED ON THE EXPIRY DAY. HOWEVER NOW IT SEEMS THIS CRITICAL 50% RETRACEMENT LEVEL OF 5240 OR THE 61.8% RETRACEMENT LEVEL OF 5191 MAY BE RESERVED FOR THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER.

TRADERS & INVESTORS MUST KEEP IN MIND THAT THE MUCH HYPED FED ANNOUNCEMENT ON FRIDAY NIGHT IS NOT AT ALL GOING TO BRING OUT ANY THING GOOD FOR THE MARKETS. THE SO CALLED JACKSON HOLE ANNOUNCEMENT MAY BE AS CONFUSING AS EARLIER TIMES THAT ONLY WILL PUNCTURE A HOLE IN THE WORLD INDICES. WHENEVER THERE IS MUCH HYPE ON FED OR EUROPEAN SAFETY, ACTUALLY NOTHING COMES OUT. BOTH SCHEDULED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT IS ONLY TO DELIVER A WEEKEND KNOCK OUT PUNCH TO THE MARKETS THAT MAY REMAIN INJURED FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER WHICH WILL GIVE THE IDEAL OPPORTUNITY FOR BULLISH LOOKING INDIAN MARKETS TO TEST THE 50% LEVEL OF 5240 OR 61.8% LEVEL OF 50191 BEFORE THE UP MOVE RESUMES FOR MUCH HIGHER LEVELS.

TECHNICALLY SPEAKING THE MARKETS HAVE  2  TO 3 MORE DAYS OF FALLS LEFT IN IT AS CAN BE SEEN FROM THE MOMENTUM INDICATOR SLOW STOCHASTICS IN THE DAILY CHART ABOVE. THE SUPPORT LINE COMING FROM THE SWING LOWS OF 4770 WHICH WAS JUNE MONTH LOW & 5032 WHICH WAS THE JULY LOW MEETS NIFTY AROUND 5200 LEVELS WHICH IS VERY NEAR THE FIBO 61.8% RETRACEMENT LEVEL OF 5191. IN CASE OF A DOW INDUCED FALL EARLY NEXT WEEK AFTER THE BLANK  FED ANNOUNCEMENT OR THE HOLE DUG OUT BY JACKSON HOLE, ONE SHOULD EXPECT NIFTY SPOT TO BOUNCE BACK FROM THIS CRITICAL SUPPORT LINE AROUND 5200+ LEVELS OR FROM AROUND THE FIBO 61.8% LEVEL OF 5191 AFTER TRIGGERING STOP LOSSES BELOW THE SUPPORT LINE. HOWEVER A FAILURE TO BOUNCE FROM THIS SUPPORT LINE AROUND 5200  OR FROM THE FIBO 61.8% SUPPORT LEVEL OF 5191 AND IN CASE NIFTY FAILS TO SUSTAINS ABOVE IT,  THEN ONE MAY BE REASONABLY CERTAIN TO SEE NIFTY SLIDING TOWARDS 4900 ON THE  NEXT SUPPORT LINE COMING FROM PREVIOUS SWING LOW OF 4531 & JOINING 4770 AS CAN BE SEEN IN THE DAILY CHART ABOVE.

HOWEVER IN CASE SPOT NIFTY AFTER THE MILD FALL ON FRIDAY OR EARLY COMING WEEK,  DOES NOT TEST THE 50% RETRACEMENT LEVEL OF 5240 OR 61.8% LEVEL OF 5191  AND BOUNCES UP MAKING THE EXPIRY DAY LOW OF 5255 AS THE SWING LOW SIMILAR TO JULY MONTH EXPIRY DAY MANIPULATED LOW OF 5032, THEN ONE CAN EXPECT A MEGA BOUNCE IN THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER TOWARDS 14TH MARCH SWING HIGH OF 5499 TO EYE FOR THE 22ND FEB SWING HIGH OF 5630 TO SET THE TARGET FOR A NEW LIFE TIME HIGHS TOWARDS 6357 OR AT LEAST 6300 BY END OF THE CURRENT FINANCIAL YEAR AS PART OF THE MEGA 3RD  UP WAVE THAT HAS STARTED FROM THE LOW OF 4770.

THE MONSTROUS JUNE MONTH GREEN CANDLE HAD A HIGH OF 5286 SPOT WHICH WAS AN OUT SIDE BAR TO THE MAY MONTH CANDLE. ONE SHOULD BE REASONABLY SURE TO SEE OPERATORS TRYING THEIR BEST TO  PULL NIFTY DOWN ON FRIDAY TO CLOSE THE MONTH OF AUGUST  BELOW THIS JUNE MONTH MOTHER CANDLE HIGH OF 5286  TO AVOID AN OUT RIGHT PROJECTION OF STRONG BULLISHNESS FOR SEPTEMBER MONTH AND OPERATORS WILL TRY THEIR BEST TO  EITHER CLOSE THE AUGUST MONTH MUCH BELOW THIS 5286 OR MAY CLOSE AROUND THIS CRITICAL 5286 TO GENERATE CONFUSION FOR THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER.

FOR FRIDAY’S INTRADAY TRADING PURPOSE WHICH HAPPENS TO BE THE WEEK ENDING AS WELL AS THE MONTH ENDING TRADING DAY, IT IS IDEALLY POISED TO BE HAMPERED BY THE DOWS OVERNIGHT FALL AS WELL AS THE BULL TRAP GENERATED ON THURSDAY. JULY MONTH HAD A HIGH OF 5348 AND HAD CLOSED AT 5230. SO ONE MAY CERTAINLY EXPECT AUGUST MONTH TO CLOSE BELOW THE  JULY MONTH HIGH OF 5348. THERE WILL BE A GREAT TUG OF WAR BETWEEN THE OPERATORS WHO WILL TRY TO PULL NIFTY DOWN TO CLOSE IT BELOW THE JUNE MONTH HIGH OF 5286 AND THE INDIAN FUND HOUSES TO CLOSE NIFTY ABOVE THIS CRITICAL LEVEL OF 5286. WITH THE FEAR OF FED & THE JACKSON HOLE, THERE IS A BRIGHTER CHANCE OF NIFTY SPOT RISING LATER IN THE DAY DUE TO SHORT COVERING TO CLOSE AROUND 5286.

FOR INTRADAY TRADING PURPOSE, SPOT NIFTY HAS INTRADAY SUPPORT AROUND 5300 BELOW WHICH ONE MAY SEE A SUDDEN FALL TOWARDS 5285 TO 5280 ZONE. SLIDE BELOW 5280 CAN SEE FURTHER FALLS TOWARDS 5260 THAT MAY ENCOURAGE HEAVY BUYING ACTION. HOWEVER IN CASE SPOT NIFTY DOES NOT SLIDE BELOW 5300 & ONLY DEPICTS  A MILDER OVERNIGHT BULL TRAP, THEN THERE IS EVERY POSSIBILITY OF SPOT NIFTY BOUNCING UP TOWARDS  5335 FOLLOWED BY EXPIRY DAY HIGH OF 5343 TO 5350 ZONE ABOVE WHICH ONE MAY SEE FURTHER SHORT COVERING TOWARDS 5360 OR HIGHER LEVELS TO GIVE A FACE SAVING CLOSURE TO THE BULLISH MONTH OF AUGUST WHICH HAS A MONTHLY HIGH OF 5448 IN ITS BACK POCKET.

OTHER THAN THE EXTERNAL FACTORS OF OPERATORS ACTION, FED’S DISAPPOINTMENT OR THE HOLE TO BE PUNCTURING BY JACKSON HOLE, INDIAN MARKETS  ARE LOOKING HIGHLY BULLISH  TECHNICALLY ON A MEDIUM TO LONG TERM BASIS AFTER THE PRESENT DECLINE  AND ENCOURAGES GOOD BUYING ON THE DECLINES AFTER THE FARCE OF FED OR JACKSON HOLE ARE OVER EARLY NEXT WEEK.