MARKETS FOR 6TH AUGUST

AFTER THREE CONSECUTIVE WEEKS OF FALLS FROM  10TH  JULY HIGH OF 5349 TO THE 26TH JULY EXPIRY DAY LOW OF 5032, NIFTY RESUMED ITS UPWARD JOURNEY LAST WEEK TO CLOSE THE WEEK AT 5216  ABOVE BOTH THE 34 & 50 WEEK EMAS. THE 3 WEEKS OF FALL WAS THE ‘ABC’  ZIGZAG CORRECTIVE WAVE TO THE 5 CONSECUTIVE WEEKS OF RISE FROM 4TH JUNE LOW OF 4770 TILL 10 TH JULY HIGH OF 5349. MOST
LIKELY THE BULLISH WEEK THAT HAS COMMENCED FROM THE LAST WEEK HAS A LOT MORE OF POTENTIAL TO CROSS THE IMMEDIATE SWING HIGH OF 5349 TO MARCH AHEAD TOWARDS THE NEXT SWING HIGH OF 5630 THAT WAS REACHED ON 22ND  FEB 2012.

NIFTY SPOT DURING THE PREVIOUS WEEK ENDING  27TH  JULY HAD MADE A WEEKLY HIGH OF 5164 AND ON ALL THE 5 TRADING DAYS OF THE WEEK HAD REMAINED BELOW BOTH THE DAILY 50 & 200 DAY EMAS. HOWEVER DURING THE LAST WEEK ENDING 3RD AUGUST NIFTY MADE  A LOW OF 5154 AND A HIGH OF 5256 TO CLOSE THE WEEK AT 5216 MUCH ABOVE ITS PREVIOUS WEEK ENDING 27TH JULY HIGH OF 5164. INTERESTINGLY ON ALL THE DAYS OF LAST WEEK NIFTY SPOT REMAINED ABOVE THE CRITICAL DUO OF 50 & 200 DAY EMA & ON BOTH MONDAY & FRIDAY WENT TO WARDS IT ONLY TO BOUNCE WITH VENGEANCE FROM IT IN THE FORM OF BULLISH HAMMERS ON BOTH THE OCCASIONS WHICH DEPICTS STRONG BULLISH SIGNALS FOR THE COMING WEEK.

ELLIOTT WAVE FOLLOWERS WILL REALIZE THAT DURING THE LAST BEAR MARKET OF 2008, NIFTY AFTER CORRECTING TILL 27TH OCTOBER 2008 LOW OF 2252 TERMINATED THE BEAR MARKET &  THE FRESH BULL MARKET STARTED AND 1ST UP WAVE WAS COMPLETED  ON THE DIWALI  5TH NOV 2010 HIGH OF 6338. THE ‘ABC’ ZIGZAG CORRECTION AS  THEE 2ND DOWN WAVE BROUGHT NIFTY DOWN TILL  20 DECEMBER 2011 LOW OF 4531. THE MEGA BULLISH 3RD UP WAVE WHICH STARTED FROM THE LOW OF 4531 WENT UP AS THE 1ST UP SUB WAVE TILL 5630. THE DOWN ‘ABC’ ZIGZAG AS THE 2ND SUB WAVE BROUGHT NIFTY DOWN TILL 4TH JUNE LOW OF 4770. THE 3RD UP SUB WAVE WHICH IS THE LARGEST SUB WAVE HAS COMPLETED ITS 1ST UP SUB SUB WAVE TILL 5349 AND THE 2ND DOWN ‘ABC’ ZIGZAG BROUGHT NIFTY DOWN TILL JULY 26TH EXPIRY DAY LOW OF 5032 FROM WHERE THE 3RD UP SUB SUB LEG HAS STARTED THAT UNDER NORMAL CIRCUMSTANCES SHOULD BREACH THE 1ST UP SUB SUB WAVE HIGH OF 5349 EASILY IN QUICK TIME TO MOVE UP TOWARDS MUCH HIGHER LEVELS  IN THE FORM OF  3 UP WAVES  & 2 CORRECTIVE DOWN WAVES & IF EVERYTHING MOVES AS PER THE ELLIOTT WAVE ONE SHOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE COMING AUSPICIOUS DEWALI BREACHING THE PREVIOUS HIGH OF 6338 TO MOVE TOWARDS NEW LIFE TIME HIGH ABOVE 6357. ( AFTER EXPERIENCING THE AFTER EFFECTS OF 2 CONSECUTIVE INAUSPICIOUS 2010 & 2011 POST DEWALI BEARISH MOVEMENTS)

WELL, THE ABOVE IS AS PER THE WAVE COUNT IN ITS SIMPLEST FORM  AND THE TIME FACTOR WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE OPERATORS  AFTER MAKING MANY FALSE DOWN MOVES TO DELAY AND WEED OUT WEAKER HANDS . THE OLD FINANCIAL CHANNEL WHICH PORTRAYS 95% OF NEGATIVE THINGS FOR THE INDIAN STOCK MARKETS WITHOUT BOTHERING FOR THE MILLIONS OF INNOCENT INVESTORS, WILL ALSO PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN DISHEARTENING THE INVESTORS FROM TIME TO TIME. THE ONLY GENUINE INTEREST & SINCERITY SHOWN BY THIS OLD FINANCIAL CHANNEL IS THE SERIOUSNESS WITH WHICH IT DELIVERS THE RUNNING COMMENTARY DURING  THE 15 MINUTES OF PRE MARKET OPENING. REST OF THE ENTIRE TIME SPENT BY THE OLD FINANCIAL CHANNEL IS TO SPEAK ONLY NEGATIVE THINGS ABOUT INDIAN MARKETS AS IF THEY JUST DON’T WANT THE INDIAN MARKETS TO MOVE UP &  LET THE MILLIONS OF INNOCENT INVESTORS SUFFER.  WELL, IF THIS IS ALLOWED TO CONTINUE, THEN WITH THE MANIPULATIVE ROLL PLAYED BY OPERATORS, ONE CAN FORGET MUCH RISE IN INDIAN MARKETS EVEN THOUGH ELLIOTT WAVE CLEARLY INDICATES NEW LIFE TIME HIGHS FOR INDIAN MARKETS IN NEXT FEW MONTHS POSSIBLY BY END OF THIS YEAR.

TECHNICALLY, THE LONG TERM CHARTS CONTINUE TO LOOK BULLISH FOR MUCH HIGHER LEVELS. THE MONTHLY INDICATORS CONTINUE TO GENERATE BUY SIGNALS. BOTH THE MONTHS OF MAY AND JUNE TOOK SUPPORT AT THE 50 MONTH SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE . AFTER THE MONSTROUS GREEN CANDLE OF JUNE MONTH WITH MONTHLY HIGH OF 5286 & LOW OF 4832, JULY MONTH WENT UP TILL THE 20 MONTH SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE AROUND 5350 THUS MAKING A HIGHER MONTHLY HIGH AT 5349 AND A  HIGHER MONTHLY LOW AT THE MANIPULATED EXPIRY DAY LOW OF 5032. NOW, MOST LIKELY THE MONTH  OF AUGUST SHOULD SEE  JULY MONTH HIGH OF 5349 TAKEN OUT TO AT LEAST GROUP TOWARDS THE 34 MONTH SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE AROUND  5380 TO TEST THE APRIL  MONTH HIGH OF 5379.

THE CANDLE OF APRIL MONTH BEING A 7TH NRB MONTHLY CANDLE, ITS HIGH MAY NOT BE BREACHED THAT EASILY BY THE OPERATORS AND EVEN IF THE APRIL MONTH HIGH OF 5379 IS BREACHED, YET  IT MAY NOT BE ALLOWED BY THE OPERATORS TO CLOSE THE MONTH OF AUGUST ABOVE THIS APRIL MONTH CRITICAL MONTHLY 7TH NRB HIGH OF 5379 TO DEPICT AN OUTRIGHT BULLISH INDICATION. ONE SHOULD BE REASONABLY SURE TO SEE BOTH THE OPERATORS & THE OLD FINANCIAL CHANNEL WILL ENSURE THAT AUGUST MONTH CLOSING IS BELOW THE APRIL MONTH 7TH NRB HIGH OF 5379 TO PREVENT EVERY TOM, DICK & HARRY COMING TO KNOW THAT MEGA BULL RUN HAS RESUMED. THE CLOSURE OF SPOT NIFTY ON 3RD AUGUST ABOVE ALL THE THREE CRITICAL WEEKLY 20, 34 & 50 WEEK EMAS CLUSTERED AROUND 5164 TO 5184 ZONE ADDS FURTHER STRENGTH TO NIFTY IN THE WEEKLY CHARTS.

IF AT ALL NIFTY  HAS TO MOVE UP IN A BIG WAY AS INDICATED BY TECHNICALS, THEN IT WILL ONLY MOVE UP THROUGH GAP UPS ON UNEXPECTED  DAYS DUE TO RISE  IN EXTERNAL MARKETS CONTROLLED BY DOW OPERATORS. THE RISE IN INDIAN MARKETS WILL NEVER HAPPEN  THROUGH INDIA’S OWN GROWTH STORY. OWN GROWTH STORY WILL BE WILLFULLY SUPPRESSED BY THE OLD FINANCIAL CHANNELS & MINOR NEGATIVE THINGS WILL BE BLOWN OUT OF PROPORTIONS TO PULL DOWN INDIAN  MARKETS TIME AND AGAIN IN SUPPORT OF THEIR OWN SHORTING INTEREST WITHOUT BOTHERING FOR MILLIONS OF GENUINE & RETAIL LONG TO MEDIUM TERM INVESTORS.

IF ONE HAS A CLOSER LOOK AT THE DAILY CHART ABOVE, ONE WILL NOTICE THAT THE BULLISH GOLDEN CROSS OF 200 DMA BY THE 50 DMA HAS BEEN CONFIRMED AND SIMILAR BULLISH CROSS HAS ALMOST OCCURRED IN 50 & 200 DAY EMA ALSO. THE INTRADAY FALL ON  MONDAY 31ST JULY AND FRIDAY 3RD AUGUST FOUND SPOT NIFTY BOUNCE BACK  IN THE FORM OF BIG GREEN HAMMERS ON BOTH THE TIMES AFTER TOUCHING THE CRITICAL 50 & 200 DAY EMA. SO THIS CRITICAL 50 & 200 DAY EMA CROSS OVER AROUND 5165 SPOT WILL PROVIDE ADEQUATE SUPPORT FOR SPOT NIFTY DURING COMING  DAYS  AND ONLY A CLOSE BELOW THIS LEVEL OF 5165 SPOT FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS MAY PARTIALLY WEAKEN NIFTY TO SLIDE DOWN TO FIND SUPPORT AROUND 50 DMA AT 5140 OR 200 DMA AROUND 5105.

AS CAN BE SEEN IN THE CHART, THE RESISTANCE LINE JOINING THE DAILY HIGHS OF 5267, 5258 & 5246  WILL ENCOUNTER SPOT NIFTY AROUND 5244 ON MONDAY. A DECISIVE BREACH AND MORE IMPORTANTLY SUSTAINING ABOVE 5246 WILL TRIGGER MASSIVE SHORT COVERING THAT MAY PROPEL SPOT NIFTY INITIALLY TOWARDS ‘B’ WAVE HIGH OF 5258 TO 5268 ZONE AS IT WILL TRIGGER THE BREACH OF THE NECK LINE OF THE REVERSE HEAD & SOLDER TO EASILY TAKE NIFTY SPOT BY ANOTHER 220 POINTS FROM THE BREACHING POINT OF 5246 TOWARDS 5466 (EQUAL TO THE DIFFERENCE OF INVERTED HEAD AT 5032 & THE  POINT ON THE NECK LINE AT 5252 VERTICALLY ABOVE THE HEAD). SUSTAINING ABOVE 5268 ON ANY DAY OR A CLOSE ABOVE IT WILL SEE NIFTY SPOT SHOOTING  UP LIKE A MISSILE TRIGGERED BY THE FINAL BOUT OF SHORT COVERING  TO STRAIGHT HIT & HAMMER OUT THE ENTIRE 11TH JULY HARAMI OUT OF SHAPE TO TRY AND ENTIRELY SKIP THE 10TH JULY SWING HIGH OF 5349 FOR MUCH HIGHER LEVELS. HOWEVER A FAILURE ON THE PART OF BULLS TO LIFT SPOT NIFTY TO HAVE A CLOSE ABOVE THE ‘B’ WAVE HIGH OF 5258 OR 5268 MAY SEE ANOTHER BOUGHT OF BEAR HAMMERING  TO PULVERIZE THE BULLS ENTIRELY.

SO, FOR THE COMING WEEK ENDING 10TH AUGUST, ONE MAY TRADE LONG AND HOLD LONG POSITIONS INCASE SPOT NIFTY CLOSES ABOVE 5246 OR MORE IMPORTANTLY BREACHES AND CLOSES ABOVE 5268 TO SEE MUCH HIGHER LEVELS. A FAILURE ON PART OF SPOT NIFTY TO CLOSE ABOVE THESE LEVELS MAY BE SHORTED LIKE THE OPERATORS OR OLD FINANCIAL CHANNELS TO SEE NIFTY SPOT FALLING AGAIN TOWARDS EITHER THE 50 & 200 JUNCTION POINT OF 5165 OR THE RISING 50 DMA AROUND 5140 OR THE HORIZONTAL 200 DMA AROUND 5105. MORE SHORTS MAY BE ADDED TO PLEASE THE OPERATORS OR OLD FINANCIAL CHANNELS IN CASE SPOT NIFTY CLOSES BELOW 5165. WITH WORLD MARKETS SHOWING EARLY SIGNS OF REVIVAL  DULY LED BY THE DECEPTIVE DOW ( HOWEVER DECEPTIVE & OPERATOR INFECTED IT MAY BE) THINGS DEFINITELY LOOK BULLISH FOR INDIAN MARKETS IN CASE BULLS BY HOOK OR BY CROOK  MANAGE TO TAKE SPOT NIFTY ABOVE THE 5246 TO 5268 ZONE TO HAVE A DECISIVE CLOSE ABOVE IT.

FOR INTRADAY TRADING ON MONDAY, ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A GAP UP OPENING DUE TO THE DECEPTIVE RISE OF 217 POINTS IN DOW THAT MAY SEE ASIAN MARKETS OPENING WITH GAP UP WHICH MAY INDUCE A POSITIVE OPENING FOR INDIAN MARKETS, ONE SHOULD SEE WHETHER NIFTY SUSTAINS AFTER THE GAP UP OPENING OR NOT. ON FRIDAY NIFTY HAD CLOSED NEGATIVE AT 5215. EVEN IF THERE IS A GAP UP OPENING SPOT NIFTY HAS TO BREACH THE CRITICAL ZONE OF 5246 TO 5258 AND THEN 5268. IN CASE NIFTY FAILS TO BREACH AND MORE IMPORTANTLY FAILS TO SUSTAIN  ABOVE THE 5268 ZONE THE BE SURE IT WILL FALL AGAIN .

SO, AFTER THE GAP UP FOLLOWED  BY THE OPERATOR SUPPRESSED FLAT MOVE FOR HOURS, ONE HAS TO OBSERVE IF NIFTY BREAKS OUT OR BREAKS DOWN. FAILURE TO BREACH AND SUSTAIN ABOVE THE SPOT NIFTY ZONE OF 5246 TO 5268 ZONE CAN BE RUTHLESSLY SHORTED AND MORE SHORTS BE ADDED WITH PUNITIVE FORCE IN CASE SPOT NIFTY ON ANY DAY FAILS TO HOLD 5194 FOLLOWED BY 5185. STOP LOSS FOR INITIAL SHORTING AFTER THE GAP UP & FAILURE TO BREACH 5246 TO 5268 SPOT ZONE MAY BE PLACED ABOVE THIS  ZONE TO REVERSE AND GO LONG FOR VERY GOOD GAINS..

Source:Queens Trade