IN SPITE OF THE DISAPPOINTMENT FROM THE RBI GOVERNOR ON FRIDAY, THAT SAW NIFTY SPOT FALLING BY NEARLY 200 POINTS FROM FRIDAY’S INTRADAY HIGH OF 6131 TO A LOW F 5933, THE WAY NIFTY BOUNCED BACK TO CLOSE THE DAY AT 6012 ABOVE THE RESISTANCE LINE ROUND THE ZONE OF 5990 TO 6000 WHICH JOINS THE 20TH MAY 2013 SWING HIGH OF 6229 & 23RD JULY SWING HIGH OF 6093 AS CAN BE SEEN IN THE WEEKLY CHART OF SPOT NIFTY ABOVE, IS AN INDICATION THAT THERE IS STILL SOME MORE UPSIDE STEAM LEFT IN NIFTY THAT SHOULD TAKE IT UP TOWARDS THE INITIAL RESISTANCE LINE AROUND 6212 FOLLOWED BY THE FINAL RESISTANCE LINE AROUND 6313 AS GIVEN IN THE CHART ABOVE. AS ONE SAW THE INTRADAY CORRECTION ON FRIDAY, ONE SHOULD BE PREPARED TO SEE SIMILAR SHARP CORRECTIONS AFTER EVERY RISE TOWARDS THESE CRITICAL RESISTANCE LEVELS.
THERE IS MORE LIKELY HOOD OF A CORRECTION SINCE NIFTY SEEMS TO HAVE COMPLETED THE 5 WAVE RISE STARTING FROM 28TH AUGUST LOWS OF 5118 TILL 19TH SEPTEMBER HIGHS OF 6142. EVEN IF NIFTY RISES AGAIN A FEW POINTS MORE TO COMPLETE THE 5TH WAVE, IT MAY BE TOUGH FOR IT TO BREACH THE RESISTANCE LINES AROUND 6212 & 6313. SO, IT IS BETTER THAT NIFTY FALLS, RETRACES A PORTION OF THE 1026 POINT RISE FROM 5118 TILL 6142 TOWARDS AT LEAST 50% AROUND 5619 OR 61.8% LEVELS AROUND 5505 TO RESUME THE NEXT LEG OF THE UP MOVE TO ENCOUNTER & SUCCESSFULLY BREACH BOTH THE RESISTANCE LINES ABOVE. THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY THAT NIFTY INSTEAD OF FALLING IN AN “ABC” ZIGZAG PATTERN MAY AGAIN CONSOLIDATE IN A FLAT TYPE TIME CORRECTION TO SMOOTHLY PASS OVER THE DEVASTATING MONTH OF OCTOBER TO RESUME THE NEXT LEG OF THE UP MOVE
TOWARDS 6212 FOLLOWED BY 6313 TO BREACH THE TWIN HIGHS OF 6338 FOLLOWED BY 6357 TOWARDS MUCH HIGHER LEVELS LATER DURING THE YEAR TO SURPRISE EVERYONE WHO ARE ASSUMING THAT THE NEARNESS OF THE COMING LOKSABHA ELECTIONS WILL BADLY PULL THE MARKETS DOWN.
TECHNICALLY, THE WEEKLY CHARTS DISPLAY STRONG BULLISHNESS TOWARDS MUCH HIGHER LEVELS. NIFTY SPOT BREACHING AND CLOSING THE DAILY AS WELL AS THE WEEKLY PRICES AT 6012, ABOVE THE MINOR RESISTANCE LINE ABOVE THE ZONE OF 5980 TO 6000 LEVELS ADDS STRENGTH TO SPOT NIFTY FOR HIGHER LEVELS AS LONG AS IT DOES NOT HAVE A FEW DAYS OF DAILY CLOSING OR A WEEKLY CLOSING BELOW THIS RESISTANCE LINE JOINING 20 MAY SWING HIGH OF 6229 & 23RD JULY SWING HIGH OF 6093. ALTHOUGH NIFTY WENT UP TILL 6142 TO CLOSE AT 6116 ON FED PUSHED THURSDAY 19TH SEPTEMBER, IT NEEDS TO BREACH THIS HIGH OF 6142 TO CLOSE ABOVE IT AGAIN FOR FURTHER UP MOVE OR ELSE THIS 6142 SPOT WILL BE USED BY ALL THE HARD CORE SHORTERS TO RUTHLESSLY SHORT THE MARKETS ON ITS APPROACH TOWARDS IT BY HAVING A STOP LOSS ABOVE IT. AS CAN BE NOTICED IN THE WEEKLY CHART ABOVE, 20 WEEKLY EMA APPROACHING 50 WEEKLY EMA BUT TURNING UP TO FORM A HOOK IS A CERTAIN SIGN OF BULLISHNESS UNLESS SPOT NIFTY FALLS TO BREACH BOTH THESE WEEKLY EMAS TO CLOSE BELOW BOTH TO ENTER THE WEEKLY GAP STARTING FROM 5757 TILL 5688 AS CAN BE SEEN IN THE CHART ABOVE. COUPLED WITH DISAPPOINTMENT FROM THE NEW RBI GOVERNOR, IT MAY ALSO BE THE EXPIRY CONSIDERATIONS FALLING ON THURSDAY 26TH SEPTEMBER THAT MAY PULL THE MARKETS DOWN A BIT AGAINST THE STRONG WEEKLY TECHNICALS.
THE DAILY TECHNICAL INDICATORS OF SPOT NIFTY LOOK TO BE IN AN OVERBOUGHT CONDITION EVEN THOUGH NIFTY IS CAMPING SAFELY ABOVE THE 200 DAY SMA AROUND 5848. EVEN THE 200 DAY EMA AROUND 5747 EVEN THOUGH SNORING BUT PATROLLING THE DAILY PIVOT THERE & THE GAP BELOW IT BETWEEN 10TH SEPTEMBER LOW OF 5737 & 6TH SEPTEMBER HIGH OF 5688 WILL PROVIDE A SECOND LINE OF DEFENSE SHOULD NIFTY SPOT BREACH AND CLOSE BELOW THE MAIN SUPPORT OF 200 DAY SMA AROUND 5848. IN ANY CASE ON ANY DAY SHOULD SPOT NIFTY BREACH AND MORE IMPORTANTLY CLOSE BELOW THE FRIDAY’S RBI TRIGGERED LOW OF 5932, THEN IT WILL BE THE EARLY SIGNAL FOR THE BULLS TO QUIETLY CHANGE THEIR ATTIRE TO LOOK ATTRACTIVE SO THAT THE BEARS CAN PARTNER THEM TO JOINTLY DIVE TOWARDS THE HIDDEN CAVE BETWEEN 5737 & 5688 AFTER TUNNELING HOLES THROUGH THE 200 DAY SMA AROUND 5838 & 200 DAY EMA AROUND 5747 SPOT LEVELS. THE 7TH NRB CANDLE OF 17TH SEPTEMBER WITH ITS LOW AROUND 5804 WILL PROVIDE A DIVING TONIC TO BOTH THESE CATEGORIES OF BEARS IF THIS LOW OF 5804 SPOT IS BREACHED SIMILAR TO THE SPRING ACTION STEROID IT PROVIDED TO THE BULLS WHEN THE SAME 7TH NRB HIGH AROUND 5858 WAS BREACHED TO SEE NIFTY BEING CATAPULTED TOWARDS 19TH SEPTEMBER HIGH OF 6142. SIMILARLY ON THE HIGHER SIDE, EVEN IF NIFTY MANAGES TO BREACH 6142, YET IT WILL PROJECT A VERY SHAKY & SHIVERING LOOK AS LONG AS IT DOES NOT CLOSE ABOVE 6212 SPOT LEVELS.
THERE IS MORE LIKELY HOOD OF A CORRECTION SINCE NIFTY SEEMS TO HAVE COMPLETED THE 5 WAVE RISE STARTING FROM 28TH AUGUST LOWS OF 5118 TILL 19TH SEPTEMBER HIGHS OF 6142. EVEN IF NIFTY RISES AGAIN A FEW POINTS MORE TO COMPLETE THE 5TH WAVE, IT MAY BE TOUGH FOR IT TO BREACH THE RESISTANCE LINES AROUND 6212 & 6313. SO, IT IS BETTER THAT NIFTY FALLS, RETRACES A PORTION OF THE 1026 POINT RISE FROM 5118 TILL 6142 TOWARDS AT LEAST 50% AROUND 5619 OR 61.8% LEVELS AROUND 5505 TO RESUME THE NEXT LEG OF THE UP MOVE TO ENCOUNTER & SUCCESSFULLY BREACH BOTH THE RESISTANCE LINES ABOVE. THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY THAT NIFTY INSTEAD OF FALLING IN AN “ABC” ZIGZAG PATTERN MAY AGAIN CONSOLIDATE IN A FLAT TYPE TIME CORRECTION TO SMOOTHLY PASS OVER THE DEVASTATING MONTH OF OCTOBER TO RESUME THE NEXT LEG OF THE UP MOVE
TOWARDS 6212 FOLLOWED BY 6313 TO BREACH THE TWIN HIGHS OF 6338 FOLLOWED BY 6357 TOWARDS MUCH HIGHER LEVELS LATER DURING THE YEAR TO SURPRISE EVERYONE WHO ARE ASSUMING THAT THE NEARNESS OF THE COMING LOKSABHA ELECTIONS WILL BADLY PULL THE MARKETS DOWN.
TECHNICALLY, THE WEEKLY CHARTS DISPLAY STRONG BULLISHNESS TOWARDS MUCH HIGHER LEVELS. NIFTY SPOT BREACHING AND CLOSING THE DAILY AS WELL AS THE WEEKLY PRICES AT 6012, ABOVE THE MINOR RESISTANCE LINE ABOVE THE ZONE OF 5980 TO 6000 LEVELS ADDS STRENGTH TO SPOT NIFTY FOR HIGHER LEVELS AS LONG AS IT DOES NOT HAVE A FEW DAYS OF DAILY CLOSING OR A WEEKLY CLOSING BELOW THIS RESISTANCE LINE JOINING 20 MAY SWING HIGH OF 6229 & 23RD JULY SWING HIGH OF 6093. ALTHOUGH NIFTY WENT UP TILL 6142 TO CLOSE AT 6116 ON FED PUSHED THURSDAY 19TH SEPTEMBER, IT NEEDS TO BREACH THIS HIGH OF 6142 TO CLOSE ABOVE IT AGAIN FOR FURTHER UP MOVE OR ELSE THIS 6142 SPOT WILL BE USED BY ALL THE HARD CORE SHORTERS TO RUTHLESSLY SHORT THE MARKETS ON ITS APPROACH TOWARDS IT BY HAVING A STOP LOSS ABOVE IT. AS CAN BE NOTICED IN THE WEEKLY CHART ABOVE, 20 WEEKLY EMA APPROACHING 50 WEEKLY EMA BUT TURNING UP TO FORM A HOOK IS A CERTAIN SIGN OF BULLISHNESS UNLESS SPOT NIFTY FALLS TO BREACH BOTH THESE WEEKLY EMAS TO CLOSE BELOW BOTH TO ENTER THE WEEKLY GAP STARTING FROM 5757 TILL 5688 AS CAN BE SEEN IN THE CHART ABOVE. COUPLED WITH DISAPPOINTMENT FROM THE NEW RBI GOVERNOR, IT MAY ALSO BE THE EXPIRY CONSIDERATIONS FALLING ON THURSDAY 26TH SEPTEMBER THAT MAY PULL THE MARKETS DOWN A BIT AGAINST THE STRONG WEEKLY TECHNICALS.
THE DAILY TECHNICAL INDICATORS OF SPOT NIFTY LOOK TO BE IN AN OVERBOUGHT CONDITION EVEN THOUGH NIFTY IS CAMPING SAFELY ABOVE THE 200 DAY SMA AROUND 5848. EVEN THE 200 DAY EMA AROUND 5747 EVEN THOUGH SNORING BUT PATROLLING THE DAILY PIVOT THERE & THE GAP BELOW IT BETWEEN 10TH SEPTEMBER LOW OF 5737 & 6TH SEPTEMBER HIGH OF 5688 WILL PROVIDE A SECOND LINE OF DEFENSE SHOULD NIFTY SPOT BREACH AND CLOSE BELOW THE MAIN SUPPORT OF 200 DAY SMA AROUND 5848. IN ANY CASE ON ANY DAY SHOULD SPOT NIFTY BREACH AND MORE IMPORTANTLY CLOSE BELOW THE FRIDAY’S RBI TRIGGERED LOW OF 5932, THEN IT WILL BE THE EARLY SIGNAL FOR THE BULLS TO QUIETLY CHANGE THEIR ATTIRE TO LOOK ATTRACTIVE SO THAT THE BEARS CAN PARTNER THEM TO JOINTLY DIVE TOWARDS THE HIDDEN CAVE BETWEEN 5737 & 5688 AFTER TUNNELING HOLES THROUGH THE 200 DAY SMA AROUND 5838 & 200 DAY EMA AROUND 5747 SPOT LEVELS. THE 7TH NRB CANDLE OF 17TH SEPTEMBER WITH ITS LOW AROUND 5804 WILL PROVIDE A DIVING TONIC TO BOTH THESE CATEGORIES OF BEARS IF THIS LOW OF 5804 SPOT IS BREACHED SIMILAR TO THE SPRING ACTION STEROID IT PROVIDED TO THE BULLS WHEN THE SAME 7TH NRB HIGH AROUND 5858 WAS BREACHED TO SEE NIFTY BEING CATAPULTED TOWARDS 19TH SEPTEMBER HIGH OF 6142. SIMILARLY ON THE HIGHER SIDE, EVEN IF NIFTY MANAGES TO BREACH 6142, YET IT WILL PROJECT A VERY SHAKY & SHIVERING LOOK AS LONG AS IT DOES NOT CLOSE ABOVE 6212 SPOT LEVELS.
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