WEEKLY ANALYSIS FOR WEEK ENDING 4TH OCTOBER

AFTER FOUR CONSECUTIVE WEEKS OF RISE FROM 28TH AUGUST LOW OF 5819 TILL  19TH SEPTEMBER HIGH OF 6142, MOVING UP BY 1023 POINTS, SPOT NIFTY CORRECTED AS WAS EXPECTED AND FORMED A RED WEEKLY CANDLE BY CLOSING THE WEEK AT 5833 NOT VERY FAR OFF FROM THE DANGEROUS 16TH AUGUST LOWS OF 5797  FORMING THE START OF THE DOWN SLOPPING NECKLINE OF A LIKELY HEAD & SOLDER FORMATION. A DECISIVE BREACH OF THIS DOWN SLOPPING NECK LINE  NOW AROUND 5757 SPOT NIFTY LEVELS WILL SEE MASSIVE SHORTING INTEREST DEVELOPING  AMONGST BOTH THE BULLS & BEARS THAT SHOULD SEE A FURTHER FALL BY ABOUT 450 POINTS TOWARDS SUB 5400 LEVELS.

A DECISIVE BREACH OF THIS NECK LINE AS CAN BE SEEN IN THE CHART ABOVE, WILL  GULP IN ONE GO THE 38.2% SUPPORT OF 5751, THE 50% SUPPORT OF 5631 &  IT WILL NOT EVEN SPARE THE LOGICAL  61.8% SUPPORT AROUND 5510. THE ONLY WAY THIS BEARS TSUNAMI CAN BE HALTED  IS  BY NOT ONLY HOLDING STRONGLY THE NECK LINE BETWEEN 5797 TO 5757 BUT ALSO MOVING UP TO BREACH & SUSTAIN ABOVE THE CRITICAL RESISTANCE OF  5919 TO 5939 SPOT ZONE THAT WILL AT LEAST  SUPPRESS  THE BUTCHER MONTH OF OCTOBER WAITING WITH GRINDING TEETH  TO CRUSH THE BONES OF THE BULLS.

HOWEVER IF THE BULLS INSTEAD OF SHIVERING BEFORE THE START OF OCTOBER, IF CONSPIRE WITH  THE WEAK BEARS TO LIFT SPOT NIFTY TO CLOSE ABOVE 5919 TO 5939 ZONE THEN EVEN THE DEADLY MONTH OF OCTOBER MAY BE SEEN  TURNING ROMANTIC TO ROMANTICIZE WITH THE COURAGEOUS BULLS TO SEE A NEW HIGH ABOVE 19TH SEPTEMBER HIGH OF 6142 TO OPEN ITS  GATES TO WELCOME THE BULLS  TO BREACH
 HIGHER RESISTANCES  OF 6242 & 6313, 6357 TOWARDS  NEW LIFE TIME HIGHS ABOVE 8TH JANUARY 2008 HIGH OF 6357 SPOT, EVEN THOUGH ONE MAY ONLY BE  THE SILENT OBSERVER TO THE BLOODSHED BETWEEN THE BULLS & THE BEARS RIGHT FROM THE NEAREST RESISTANCE OF 5939.

TECHNICALLY NIFTY AS PER  THE WEEKLY TECHNICALS  AFTER A VERY WEAK CLOSING LAST WEEK HAS STARTED TO LOOK LIKE AN OLD LADY & IS   BANKING HEAVILY ON   THREE  ENTANGLED DAUGHTERS  IN THE FORM OF 20,34  & 50 WEEK SMAS  NEAR THE WEEKLY LOWS AROUND 5808 SPOT FOLLOWED BY  THE 3 SON-IN- LAWS, THE FIRST TWO   IN THE FORM OF 20, 34 WEEK EMAS  AROUND 5775 FOLLOWED BY THE ONE EYED JACK SON-IN- LAW  THE 50 EMA HIDING AROUND 5737 SPOT, ALL  WAITING TO GRAB THE ENTIRE PROPERTY OF AGED MOTHER  NIFTY. BOTH THE SONS AS THE 200 WEEK SMA & 200 WEEK EMA STAYING FAR-FAR AWAY AROUND 5464 & 5323 CAN ONLY WATCH THE GAME FROM DISTANCE AND PRAY FOR THEIR OLD MOTHER TO COME TO THEM FASTER.

THE DAILY CHARTS DEFINITELY  LOOK  WEAK AND ARE ITCHING TO COMPLETE AT LEAST THE FIBO 61.8% RETRACEMENT TILL 5510 SPOT BEFORE THE END OF OCTOBER THAT ENCOURAGES BOTH THE BULLS & THE BEARS TO SHORT THE MARKETS ON ITS EVERY RISE TOWARDS THE PREVIOUS DAY’S HIGHS TILL SUCH TIME SPOT NIFTY REMAINS BELOW 5939 TO 5919 ZONE,  A DECISIVE BREACH OF WHICH ONLY CAN CHANGE THEIR MIND TO REVERSE FROM SHORT TO LONGS.

THE 3 CRITICAL 34, 50 & 200 DAY EMAS ARE TIGHTLY ENTANGLED LIKE COBRA ROMANCE  WITHIN THE  TIGHT ZONE OF 5762 TO 5742 WAITING FOR THE WEDDING BELLS TO SOUND SHOULD SPOT NIFTY DECISIVELY BREACH THE 20 DAY EMA AROUND 5800. SO ALL IN ALL THE MARKETS ARE CERTAINLY LOOKING WEAK AND THE HOLIDAY ON 2ND OCTOBER MAY BRING SOME RESPITE FOR THE BULLS BEFORE THEY RESUME THE SOUTHWARD SPRINT  WELCOMING THE REAL OCTOBER MONTH FROM 3RD OCTOBER ON WARDS. HOWEVER THE WHOLE PICTURE MAY TURN TO FAVOR THE BULLS IN CASE THEY CAN MANAGE TO LIFT SPOT NIFTY INITIALLY ABOVE THE DOWN SLOPPING RESISTANCE LINE AROUND 5885 FOLLOWED BY BREACH & MORE IMPORTANTLY A CLOSE ABOVE THE CRITICAL 5919 TO 5939 SPOT ZONE.

MARKETS FOR MONDAY 30 SEPTEMBER    FOR INTRADAY TRADING ON MONDAY, THE MARKETS SHOULD OPEN WEAK, HOWEVER AS LONG AS SPOT  NIFTY STAYS ABOVE 5808 & FUTURES ABOVE  5870 LEVELS, THERE IS ALWAYS A CHANCE OF BOUNCING BACK, HOWEVER FAILURE ON THE PART OF NIFTY TO RAISE ITS  HEAD OVER 5808 SPOT & 5870 FUTURES MAY SEE BIGGER FALLS IN NEXT FEW DAYS. & A BREACH OF THE NECK LINE AROUND 5757 SPOT & 5855 LOOKS TO BE A CERTAINTY FOR MUCH LOWER LEVELS. PLEASE REMEMBER THAT THE CANDLE OF EXPIRY DAY 26TH SEPTEMBER WAS A 7TH NRB DOJI, WITH ITS LOWS AROUND 5864 AND HIGH AROUND 5919 SPOT. FRIDAY’S CANDLE HAS CLOSED AT 5833 SPOT BELOW THE LOWS OF 7TH NRB DOJI WHICH GENERALLY SHOULD TRIGGER FURTHER FALLS AS LONG AS THE HIGH OF THE SAME 7TH NRB  DOJI AT 5919 IS NOT BREACHED  BY SPOT NIFTY ON A CLOSING BASIS.

ON THE HIGHER SIDE  SPOT NIFTY HAS TO MOVE UP AND SUSTAIN  ABOVE THE INITIAL RESISTANCE OF  5844 TO GENERATE SOME SHORT COVERING TO PUSH NIFTY UP TOWARDS THE IMPORTANT RESISTANCE OF  5870 TO 5885 TO LOOK UP TOWARDS MUCH HIGHER SIDE OF 5919 TO 5939 IN  NEXT FEW SESSIONS.. SO, EXPECT A GAP DOWN OPENING  FOLLOWED BY A FURTHER FALL  & THEN SOME RISE TO CLOSE AROUND OR BELOW THE AUGUST MONTH HIGH OF 5808 SPOT THAT WAS REACHED ON 1ST OF AUGUST. FOR INTRADAY TRADING OF NIFTY FUTURES ON MONDAY (FOR SUBSCRIBERS ONLY)

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