WEEKLY ANALYSIS FOR WEEK ENDING 03 JAN 2014

EVEN THOUGH NIFTY MADE A NEW LIFE TIME HIGH ON 9TH DECEMBER AT 6415 BY BREACHING THE 6 YEAR OLD 8TH JANUARY 2008 HIGH OF 6357, YET IT COULD NOT SUSTAIN AROUND THE NEW HIGH EVEN FOR A MINUTE AND CONTINUED TO FALL TILL 18TH DECEMBER LOWS OG 6130 SPOT LEVELS. THIS TYPE OF PROFIT BOOKING CORRECTION IS VERY COMMON I ALL MARKETS WHEN A NEW LIFE TIME HIGH IS MADE & ONE SHOULD BE ABSOLUTELY SURE TO SEE MANY MORE OF SUCH NEW LIFE TIME HIGHS FOLLOWED BY MILD CORRECTIONS TO COMPLETE THE BULL MARKET OF LIFE TIME BY 2016. HENCE ANY CORRECTION IN NIFTY BY 200 TO 300 POINTS IF AT ALL IT COMES SHOULD BE TAKEN AS A GOD SENT OPPORTUNITY FOR LONG TERM INVESTORS TO BUY AND HOLD. THE DOUBLE BOTTOM LOWS OF 5972 MADE ON 13TH & 22ND NOVEMBER SHOULD BE KEPT AS STOP LOSS FOR ALL LONG TERM POSITIONS A DECISIVE BREACH OF WHICH MAY SEE ANOTHER FALL OF ABOUT 250 TO 270 POINTS TOWARDS THE NEXT CRITICAL SUPPORT OF 5700 SPOT. IN ANY CASE FOR SHORT TERM OR EVEN MEDIUM TERM PLAYERS, A DECISIVE BREACH OF 18TH DECEMBER LOWS OF 6130 SPOT ON A CLOSING BASIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH INDICATION TO TRADE SHORT TILL ANOTHER LIFE TIME HIGH IS MADE ABOVE 6415 SPOT.

AS CAN BE SEEN IN THE DAILY CHART OF SPOT NIFTY ABOVE, NIFTY IS IN THE PROCESS OF AN UPWARD LOOKING CHANNEL WHOSE UPWARD TILTING RESISTANCE LINE IS FORMED BY JOINING THE 19TH SEPTEMBER HIGH OF 6142 & 3RD NOVEMBER HIGH OF 6343 & THIS RESISTANCE LINE WHEN EXTENDED POINTS TOWARDS 6600 & HIGHER LEVELS. SIMILARLY THE LOWER SUPPORT LINE IS FORMED BY JOINING THE 1ST OCTOBER LOWS OF 5701, 22ND NOVEMBER LOWS OF 5972 & 18TH DECEMBER LOW OF 6130 &

WEEKLY ANALYSIS FOR WEEK ENDING 06TH DECEMBER

AFTER THREE CONSECUTIVE WEEKS OF FALLS  DURING THE FIRST THREE TRADING WEEKS OF NOVEMBER, THE FINAL WEEK ENDING 29TH NOVEMBER HAD A BULLISH WEEKLY CLOSING FOR SPOT NIFTY BY CLOSING AT 6176 COMPARED TO ITS PREVIOUS WEEK ENDING 22ND NOVEMBER CLOSING OF 5995. WHAT IS MORE IMPORTANT IS THAT THE  20 WEEK EMA & SMA CONTINUE TO RETAIN THEIR SANCTITY, AS NIFTY SPOT SINCE THE WEEKENDING 11 OCTOBER HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO TOUCH THESE TWO WEEKLY MOVING AVERAGES & NIFTY SPOT HAS CONTINUED TO STAY ABOVE THESE CRITICAL WEEKLY MOVING AVERAGES. THE OTHER IMPORTANT ASPECT OF THESE WEEKLY MOVING AVERAGES IS THAT 20 IS ABOVE 50 & BOTH ARE ALSO ABOVE THE 200 WEEKLY MOVING AVERAGES CONFIRMING THAT THE LONG TERM, MEDIUM TERM & EVEN THE SHORT TERM AS WELL ARE IN BULL GRIP.

THE WEEKLY RSI TAKING AN ABOUT TURN UPWARDS  TOWARDS 60 JUST BEFORE TOUCHING 50 MARK  IS ANOTHER CONFIRMATION SIGNAL THE BULLS MUST MAKE FULL USE OF TO BASH ON REGARDLESS INITIALLY TOWARDS THE CRITICAL 6212 SPOT FOLLOWED BY THE NEW LIFE TIME HIGHS MUCH ABOVE THE 8TH JANUARY 2008 HIGH OF 6357 SPOT. SO, UNLESS THERE ARE CATASTROPHIC EVENTS EFFECTING INDIAN ECONOMY  OR THE EXTERNAL OPERATORS & MANIPULATORS REALLY WANT TO SUPPRESS  INDIAN MARKETS FOR SOME MORE WEEKS TO CONTINUE LIFTING  OTHER MARKETS UP, THERE IS A VERY HIGH PERCENTAGE OF CHANCE THAT INDIAN MARKETS SHOULD SEE A NEW LIFE TIME HIGH BY END OF THIS YEAR.

IN THE DAILY CHARTS THE ROUTINE INDICATORS  LIKE MACD,  RSI,  STOCH  &  CCI   LOOK HIGHLY BULLISH FOR SOME MORE DAYS.  AFTER TWO DOJI DAYS ON 27TH & 28TH NOVEMBER, THE WAY FRIDAY’S GREEN CANDLE HAS OPENED & CLOSED MUCH ABOVE THESE TWO EARLIER DOJIS THAT TOO TO CLOSE NOT ONLY ABOVE   THE DAILY PIVOT BUT ALSO TO CLOSE FAR ABOVE THE IMPORTANT RESISTANCE LINE JOINING THE DECEPTIVE DIWALI 3RD NOV HIGH OF 6342 &  19TH NOVEMBER HIGH OF  6212, IS A  GOOD SIGNAL FOR SOME MEGA RISE & IS A CLEAR SIGNAL  FOR BULLS NOT TO ALLOW  THIS GOLDEN OPPORTUNITY TO SLIP OUT OF THEIR HANDS.  A RISE BY SPOT NIFTY TO HAVE A DECISIVE CLOSE ABOVE 19TH NOV HIGH OF 6212  MAY SEE  BEARS SCRAMBLING FOR COVER BY RESORTING TO MONSTROUS  SHORT COVERING OF  WHATEVER SHORT POSITION IF AT ALL THEY POSSESS AS OF NOW. HOWEVER A FAILURE TO BREACH AND MORE IMPORTANTLY TO SUSTAIN ABOVE THE CRITICAL 6212 SPOT WILL SEE THE BULLS GETTING MASSACRED DAY AFTER DAY,  AS IN THAT CASE AN INITIAL BREACH OF THE 27TH NOV DOJI LOW OF 6030 FOLLOWED BY   EVEN THREATENING TO RETEST & BREACH THE DOUBLE BOTTOM LOWS OF 5973 SPOT IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

AS PER THE WEEKLY & THE DAILY TECHNICALS, THE DOUBLE BOTTOM FORMED AT THE 5973 SPOT LEVELS IS GOING TO BE A FORMIDABLE SUPPORT FOR NIFTY SPOT FOR MANY MANY WEEKS & MONTHS TO COME THAT ENCOURAGES SWING TRADERS TO BOLDLY HOLD THEIR SWING LONGS. EVEN FRESHERS MAY LOOK FOR AN INTRADAY DECLINE TO INITIATE LONGS & HOLD THE LONGS  WITH STOP LOSS BELOW 27TH NOVEMBER LOW OF 6030 SPOT. A BREACH OF THIS INITIAL LOW OF 6030 WILL OPEN THE FLOOD GATES TOWARDS THE DOUBLE BOTTOM LOW OF 5973 SPOT & ONLY A DECISIVE CLOSE  BELOW THE DOUBLE BOTTOM LOW OF 5973 SPOT CAN SEE MUCH LOWER LEVELS .

SINCE 20 NOVEMBER, SPOT NIFTY HAD REMAINED BELOW BOTH THE 20 DAY EMA & 20 DAY SMA FOR 7 CONSECUTIVE DAYS & THE  123 BREAKOUT GREEN CANDLE OF FRIDAY HAS TAKEN SPOT NIFTY HIGH ABOVE BOTH THESE MOVING AVERAGES  &  THAT TOO, TO CLOSE FAR ABOVE BOTH THESE SETS OF MOVING AVERAGES& ALSO ABOVE THE DAILY PIVOT  IS ANOTHER BOOSTER DOSE FOR THE BULLS TO HAMMER THE BEARS OUT OF SHAPE.  THE RESISTANCE LINE NOW AROUND 6100 SPOT WILL

WEEKLY ANALYSIS FOR WEEK ENDING 29TH NOVEMBER

THE WEEK ENDING 22TH NOV MOVED EXACTLY AS WAS MENTIONED IN THE WEEKLY ANALYSIS FOR THE WEEK BELOW. THE WEEK SAW NIFTY FUTURE MAKING  A FRESH LOW OF 5984 AROUND 3 PM  ON FRIDAYS AFTER BREACHING THE EARLIER 13TH NOVEMBER SWING LOW OF 6009 BUT THE LAST HALF AN HOUR OF FRIDAY SAW NIFTY FUTURES RISING SHARPLY FROM THE LOW OF 5984 TO 6033 TO FINALLY CLOSE AROUND 6033 THUS BRINGING SOME CHEERS FOR THE HARASSED BULLS TO AT LEAST HAVE THE WEEKEND IN PEACE. THE FACT THAT IN SPITE OF THE SAVAGE FALLS, SPOT NIFTY INDEX DID NOT DECISIVELY BREACH THE  13 NOV SWING LOW OF 5973 AND JUST BOUNCED FROM 5972.95, WAS A SUPERB JOB DONE BY THE INDEX MANAGEMENT DACOITS TO FOX THE FUTURE TRADERS BUT KEEP THE MAIN SPOT INDEX AS A HOPE GENERATOR FOR THE BULLS,  WHO ONLY TO BE FOOLED AGAIN BY THESE FOREIGN DACOITS. THE LAST HALF HOUR SHORT COVERING RISE HAS PUT THE BEARS IN A FIX WHETHER TO RESUME SHORTING AGAIN FROM THE VERY START OF NEXT WEEK STARTING 25TH NOV OR WAIT FOR ANOTHER DECEPTIVE RISE TOWARDS THE  RESISTANCE LEVELS OF 6050 TO 6060 SPOT LEVELS TO UN-LEASE THEIR ENTIRE SHORTING POWER BY HAVING STOP LOSS ABOVE THURSDAY 21ST NOV OPENING GAP HIGH OF 6096 TO 6107 SPOT ZONE.

IN THE DAILY CHART OF SPOT NIFTY BOTH THE 50 DAY EMA & THE SMA LOOK LIKE HAVING GOT MARRIED AROUND THE LEVEL OF 6040 TO 6050 SO ALSO ARE BOTH THE 200 DAY EMA & THE SMA AROUND THE 5858 SPOT LEVELS. SPOT NIFTY NEEDS TO MOVE UP AND DECISIVELY CLOSE ABOVE THE MARRIED COUPLE OF 50 DAY EMA & SMA ABOVE 6050 SO THAT THE +VE DIVERGENCE INDICATED BY SOME OF THE DAILY INDICATORS LIKE RSI, CCI, MACD HISTOGRAM & STOCH CAN ENJOY THE MARRIAGE PARTY TO ENERGIZE THE BULLS TOWARDS SOME MORE RISE. THE RESISTANCE LINE COMING FROM  DIWALI’S DECEPTIVE HIGH OF 6343  JOINING THE 19TH NOV HIGH OF 6213  SLIDES DOWN TO MEET SPOT NIFTY AROUND 6161 LEVELS & THIS RESISTANCE LINE CERTAINLY WILL BE THE MAJOR HURDLE FOR ANY FURTHER UP MOVE.


 A DECISIVE BREACH OF THIS RESISTANCE LINE WILL CERTAINLY GENERATE MASSIVE SHORT COVERING & EVEN HARD CORE SWING SHORTERS MAY RETHINK WHETHER TO QUIT THE SHORTS  ON A BREACH OF THIS RESISTANCE LINE ON A CLOSING BASIS OR STILL HOLD THEIR SWING SHORTS TILL SPOT NIFTY BREACHES THE 19TH NOV HIGH OF 6212 TO CLOSE ABOVE IT. SHOULD THIS HAPPEN THEN BEARS MAY NOT BE VISIBLE AT ALL & EVEN THE DECEPTIVE DIWALI HIGH OF 6343 SPOT WILL BE ENTIRELY SKIPPED TO SEE SPOT NIFTY MAKING A NEW LIFE TIME HIGH BEFORE THIS YEAR END ABOVE THE 6 YEAR OLD 8TH JANUARY 2008 HIGH OF 6357 SPOT. A FAILURE ON THE PART OF THE BULLS TO LIFT SPOT NIFTY ABOVE THE RESISTANCE LINE  OR MORE IMPORTANTLY ABOVE 6161 WILL CONFIRM THE CONTINUATION OF THE DOWN SIDE A,B,C CORRECTION THAT HAS STARTED FROM DIWALI HIGH OF 6343 SPOT TOWARDS 5878 TO 5858 SPOT LEVELS TO AT LEAST SAY A HELLO  TO THE MARRIED COUPLE OF 200 DAY EMA & SMA HIDING THERE FOR A VERY LONG TIME.

IN THE WEEKLY CHART OF SPOT NIFTY, THE WEEKLY CANDLE HAS MADE AN OUT SIDE CANDLE FORMATION  WITH THE WEEKLY CANDLE OF WEEKENDING 11TH NOV. A BREACH OF THE LOWS AROUND 5973 WILL CONFIRM THAT THE BEARISH ENGULFING CANDLE FOR THE WEEK ENDING 8TH NOV HAS MORE VENOM TO BE INJECTED INTO THE BULLS. THE ONLY SAVING FACTOR IN THE OVERBOUGHT LOOKING WEEKLY CHARTS IS THAT SPOT NIFTY HAS NOT YET BREACHED THE 20 WEEK EMA AROUND THE CRITICAL LEVEL OF 5959, BELOW WHICH  COMES THE CRITICAL ZONE OF  5878 TO 5890 WHERE POLYGAMY IS BEING PERFORMED BY 34 WEEK EMA,34 WEEK SMA,20 WEEK SMA AND THE 50 WEEK SMA.. SO, EVEN THOUGH MOST OF THE WEEKLY INDICATORS LOOK OVERBOUGHT YET WILL FIND SUPPORT AROUND THESE AUSPICIOUS MARRIAGE PANDALS LOCATED AROUND 5959 & 5878 SPOT.

SUPPORTS & RESISTANCES FOR SPOT NIFTY DURING THE COMING WEEK ARE AS PER THE LEVELS INDICATED IN THE 2 HOURLY CHART OF SPOT NIFTY ABOVE. BREACH OF EACH OF THE UP SIDE OR THE DOWN SIDE STEP WILL TAKE NIFTY SPOT TO THE NEXT STEP MENTIONED. THE MOMENTUM INDICATOR STOCHASTIC AS CAN BE SEEN IN THE TWO HOURLY CHART ABOVE HAS NOT YET MOVED UP  ABOVE THE 20 MARK ALTHOUGH IT DECEPTIVELY LOOKS OVERSOLD. HOWEVER SHOULD SPOT NIFTY MOVE UP TO BREACH THE INITIAL RESISTANCE AREA OF 6050 TO 6060 THEN ONE CAN NOTICE COMMENCEMENT OF THE INITIAL BOUT OF SHORT COVERING TO START  A CHAIN REACTION IN FAVOR OF THE BULLS TO AROUSE FRESH BUYING INTEREST OR ELSE IT WILL BE THE CONTINUATION OF THE BEARS HONEYMOON PERIOD OF SHORT ON RISE TO SEE MUCH LOWER LEVELS.

MARKETS FOR WEDNESDAY 13TH NOVEMBER

AS EXPECTED NIFTY SAW ITS SIXTH CONSECUTIVE DAY OF FALLS AND AGAIN BE SURE TILL EVERYONE START TO BELIEVE THAT MARKET HAS TURNED BEARISH , NIFTY WILL BE MADE TO FALL ONLY WITH A FACE SAVING FLAT DAY HERE & THERE. HAVING TESTED THE INTRADAY LOW OF 6012 SPOT ON TUESDAY AROUND THE LEVEL OF 50% RETRACEMENT & ALSO AROUND THE 50 DAY EMA, NIFTY SPOT MAY BE MADE TO MAKE A DECEPTIVE RISE BUT ONLY TO BE PULLED DOWN AGAIN TO TEST THE MOST IMPORTANT RETRACEMENT LEVEL OF 61.8% AROUND 5945. THE RUNNING WEEK BEING ANOTHER TRUNCATED WEEK WITH HOLIDAY ON THURSDAY 14TH, EXPECT SOME SHORT COVERING RISE ON WEDNESDAY & ALSO FRIDAY TO SLIDE AGAIN FROM NEXT WEEK TILL A BEARISH ATMOSPHERE IS INDUCED IN THE MINDS OF ALL TRADERS & INVESTORS ONLY TO FIND AFTER IT THAT NIFTY IS RISING AGAIN TOWARDS NEW LIFE TIME HIGHS.

FOR INTRADAY TRADING ON WEDNESDAY, SPOT NIFTY WHICH HAS CLOSED AROUND 6018 NEAR THE LOWEST POINT OF THE DAY, LOOKS WEAK FOR FURTHER SLIDE TOWARDS SUB 6000 SPOT LEVELS SO THAT IT CAN MOVE NEARER TO PEEP AT OR EVEN KISS THE FIBO 61.8% LEVEL OF 5945 BEFORE A REASONABLE BOUNCE. HOWEVER INSTEAD OF FALLING ON WEDNESDAY, IN CASE SPOT NIFTY MOVES UP TO SUSTAIN ABOVE 6040 TO 6045 ZONE THEN EXPECT HIGHER SPOT NIFTY LEVELS OF 6055 FOLLOWED BY 6075 TO EYE FOR 6100 AGAIN.

SIMILARLY ON THE LOWER SIDE , CONTINUANCE OF WEAKNESS FROM WHERE BEARS HAD LEFT NIFTY ON TUESDAY END OR A FAILURE ON THE PART OF BULLS TO LIFT NIFTY SPOT TO BREACH AND SUSTAIN ABOVE THE CRITICAL ZONE OF 6040 TO 6044 WILL SEE NIFTY AGAIN FALLING TOWARDS PSYCHOLOGICAL LEVEL OF 6000 FOLLOWED BY 5988 TO 5980 SUSTAINING BELOW WHICH WILL PUSH THE BULLS SOUTH TOWARDS 5970 FOLLOWED BY THE CRITICAL FIBO 61.8% LEVEL AROUND 5950 TO 5945 FOR A BOUNCE UPWARDS.

MARKETS FOR TUESDAY 12TH NOVEMBER

NIFTY SPOT CONTINUED WITH ITS DOWNWARD SLIDE FOR THE 5TH CONSECUTIVE DAY & BE SURE IT WILL BE KEPT SUBDUED FOR SOME MORE DAYS TILL THE TIME MOST OF THE MARKET PARTICIPANTS START TO THINK THAT THE BULLISHNESS THAT LED TO DIWALI HIGH OF 6341 WAS A BIG TRAP & THEN TURN OUT TO BE ENTIRELY BEARISH ON INDIAN MARKETS. AS WAS INDICATED FOR MONDAY SPOT NIFTY MADE A LOW OF 6068 AFTER BREACHING THE CRITICAL 6080 BUT WAS MADE TO CLOSE AROUND 6079 AS A PERFECT EXAMPLE OF INDEX MANAGEMENT. HOWEVER NIFTY STILL LOOKS WEAK AS LONG AS IT REMAINS BELOW 6288 AND WILL INVITE MONSTROUS SHORTING ON EVERY BIG INTRADAY RISE TOWARDS THE PREVIOUS DAYS HIGHS.

FOR INTRADAY TRADING ON MONDAY, SPOT NIFTY HAS INITIAL RESISTANCE AROUND 6110 AND A FAILURE TO BREACH AND MORE IMPORTANTLY A FAILURE TO SUSTAIN ABOVE 6110 WILL SEE POWER SHORTS RESUMING. HOWEVER IF SPOT NIFTY SUSTAINS ABOVE 6110 TO 6116 THEN EXPECT INITIAL BOUT OF SHORT COVERING TO PROPEL IT TOWARDS 6126 FOLLOWED BY 6145 TO 6150 LEVELS . A BREACH TO SUSTAIN ABOVE 6126 TO 6130 WILL SEE THE 2ND BOUT OF SHORT COVERING BY THE WEAKER HANDS TO PUSH NIFTY TOWARDS 6145 TO 6150. SUSTAINING ABOVE 6162 SPOT MAY SEE MUCH HIGHER LEVELS AS BULLISH MOMENTUM IS LIKELY RESUME AT LEAST TEMPORARILY.

SIMILARLY ON THE LOWER SIDE, A BREACH OF MONDAY’S LOW OF 6068 SPOT WILL SEE BULLS RUNNING AWAY THAT MAY PULL DOWN NIFTY SPOT INITIALLY TOWARDS 6055. SUSTAINING BELOW 6055 TO 6050 ZONE TO HAVE A CANDLE CLOSE BELOW IT MAY SEND SHOCK WAVES FOR THE REMAINING BULLS THAT MAY SEE SPOT NIFTY QUICKLY SLIDING TOWARDS 6040 FOLLOWED BY THE CRITICAL LOW OF 6033 TO STRAIGHT DIVE TOWARDS 6020 TO 6015 ZONE. THE AREA AROUND 6020 IS THE AREA OF 50% RETRACEMENT FROM 1ST OCTOBER LOW OF 5701 TILL DIWALI HIGH OF 6341. AROUND 6020 ALSO REMAINS THE CRITICAL 50 DAY EMA THAT SHOULD SEE A SPRING ACTION BOUNCE WHICH INTRADAY BULLS MAY TAKE FULL ADVANTAGE OF.

MARKETS FOR FRIDAY 8TH NOVEMBER

NIFTY TESTED THE CRITICAL 61.8% AROUND 6181 AS WAS MENTIONED YESTERDAY & HAVING CLOSED AROUND THE LOW OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, STILL LOOKS VERY WEAK. SO FOR INTRADAY TRADING PURPOSE IN CASE SPOT NIFTY DOES NOT SHOW A BOUNCE THEN JUST CLOSE THE EYES AND BOLDLY SHORT FOR VERY GOOD GAINS. EVEN IF THERE IS A DECEPTIVE RISE, AS LONG AS SPOT NIFTY FAILS TO SUSTAIN ABOVE 6212 KEEP ON HOLDING THE SHORTS WITH STOP LOSS ABOVE 6212 TO 6220 SPOT ZONE TO REVERSE FOR TRADING LONG ABOVE 6212 TO 6220 SPOT ZONE.
IN CASE SPOT NIFTY FAILS TO STAY ABOVE 6212 TO 6220 ZONE, FURTHER SLIDE MAY BE EXPECTED TO BREACH THURSDAY’S LOWS OF 6180 TO SLIDE TOWARDS 6160 FOLLOWED BY 6144 OR EVEN BEAR PRESSURE CAN TAKE IT FURTHER DOWN TOWARDS 6116 SPOT LEVELS. HOWEVER IF THURSDAY’S LOWS OF 6180 HOLDS AND SPOT NIFTY SUSTAINS ABOVE 6212 TO 6220 THEN EXPECT HIGHER LEVELS OF 6225 FOLLOWED BY 6255 TO EYE TOWARDS 6300 WHICH ALMOST LOOKS IMPOSSIBLE ON FRIDAY, MAY BE IT CAN HAPPEN NEXT WEEK.

MARKETS FOR WEDNESDAY 6TH NOVEMBER

NIFTY SPOT MADE A HIGH OF 6341 ON DIWALI MUHURAT TRADING AND THIS HIGH OF SPOT AT 6341 AND THE FUTURE HIGH OF 6382 ONLY REMAINED THE HIGH FOR THE OPENING SECOND ONLY. THUS THE EARLIER 2ND HIGHEST POINT OF NIFTY AT 6338 ON DIWALI NIGHT OF 5TH NOV 2010 IS NOW REPLACED BY 6341 OF 3RD NOV 2013 AND THE LIFE TIME HIGH OF 6357 SPOT OF 8TH JANUARY 2008 CONTINUES TO ENJOY THE HONORS TILL IT IS BREACHED AFTER A FEW DAYS OF CORRECTION THAT HAS STARTED FROM TUESDAY 5TH NOVEMBER RIGHT ON THE FIRST TRADING DAY AFTER THE DIWALI HIGH.

ON TUESDAY NIFTY SPOT MADE A HIGH OF 6303 TO FALL TOWARDS THE END TO CLOSE AROUND 6253 NEAR THE LOWEST POINT OF THE DAY. THE CHART PATTERN SUGGESTS FURTHER FALLS IN NIFTY TO RETRACE SOME OF THE BIG GAINS MADE DURING LAST WEEK THAT ENCOURAGES INTRADAY TRADERS TO CONFIDENTLY TRADE SHORT ON INTRADAY RISE OF NIFTY AS LONG AS SPOT NIFTY SUSTAINS BELOW 6292 TO REVERSE FOR LONGS ONLY ABOVE 6292 SPOT. IN CASE THE LOW OF TUESDAY AROUND 6244 IS BREACHED AND SPOT NIFTY SUSTAINS BELOW IT THEN EXPECT FURTHER FALLS TOWARDS 6216 FOLLOWED BY 6200 TO FALL FURTHER TOWARDS 6171 BEFORE A BOUNCE.

SIMILARLY ON THE HIGHER SIDE, IF THE FALL ON TUESDAY IS JUST ENOUGH IN ADVANCE OR IF NIFTY MANAGES TO MOVE UP AND SUSTAIN ABOVE 6272 SPOT LEVELS THEN ONE MAY EXPECT IT TO MOVE UP TO CONTEST THE IMPORTANT RESISTANCE BETWEEN 6286 TO 6292 TO TRIGGER MASSIVE SHORT COVERING TO MOVE UP TOWARDS 6300 OR EVEN 6313 SPOT LEVELS TO SEE INITIATION OF FURTHER SHORTS FROM HERE. ONE SHOULD EXPECT A CORRECTION OF A DAY OR TWO MORE BEFORE THE UP MOVE RESUMES POSSIBLY FROM THURSDAY AT THE BEST. A HEAVY PREMIUM OF AROUND 50 POINTS FOR NIFTY FUTURE OVER SPOT NIFTY ALTHOUGH LOOKS ATTRACTIVE TO HOLD LONGS YET IS HIGHLY DECEPTIVE & IS VULNERABLE TO BIGGER FALLS.

WEEKLY ANALYSIS FOR WEEK ENDING 1ST NOVEMBER

DURING THE WEEK SPOT NIFTY MADE A NEW HIGH FOR THE YEAR 2013 BY REACHING A HIGH OF 6252 ON THURSDAY 24TH OCTOBER ABOVE THE 20TH MAY HIGH OF 6229. NIFTY ALSO BREACHED THE RESISTANCE LINE COMING FROM DIWALI  5TH NOVEMBER 2010 HIGH OF 6338 JOINING THE 20TH MAY 2013 HIGH OF 6229. HOWEVER THE ALARMING FEATURE IS THAT NIFTY FAILED TO STAY ABOVE THE EARLIER 20TH MAY HIGH OF 6229 AND ALSO FAILED TO SUSTAIN ABOVE THE RESISTANCE LINE. THE FORMATION OF A PIN BAR / DOJI ON 24TH OCTOBER TO SLIDE THERE AFTER ON FRIDAY TO CLOSE EXACTLY AT  6144 WHICH WAS THE LOW OF THE DOJI OF 24TH OCTOBER STRENGTHENS THE BEARS FOR THE COMING WEEK.

SO, A FURTHER FALL ON MONDAY TO SUSTAIN BELOW THE THURSDAY’S DOJI  LOW OF 6144 OR BELOW FRIDAYS LOW OF 6125 MAY SEE FURTHER FALL TOWARDS MUCH LOWER LEVELS.  IN ANY CASE, A SLIDE AFTER MAKING NEW YEARLY HIGH IS VERY COMMON IN NATURE THAT ALLOWS NIFTY TO PLEASE THE BEARS A BIT BEFORE MUSTERING ENOUGH STRENGTH TO MOVE UP AGAIN TO BREACH THE RESISTANCE LINE AND MOVE UP FURTHER TOWARDS THE NEW LIFE TIME HIGHS ABOVE 8TH JANUARY 2008 HIGH OF 6357. SO, EVEN IF SOME SLIDE MAY COME IN CASE NIFTY FAILS TO BREACH IN ITS SECOND ATTEMPT THE 24TH OCTOBER HIGH OF 6252, THIS SLIDE IN NO WAY WILL UNDERMINE THE OVER ALL BULLISH STRENGTH OF NIFTY WHICH IN ALL PROBABILITIES WILL TEST AND BREACH THE EARLIER HIGHS OF 6338 & 6357 FOR A NEW LIFE TIME HIGH MUCH ABOVE THESE.

THE INDICATORS IN THE WEEKLY CHARTS CONTINUE TO LOOK ROBUST & A WEEKLY NEGATIVE CLOSE ON FRIDAY AT 6144 SPOT AFTER THREE CONSECUTIVE WEEKS OF HIGHLY +VE WEEKLY CLOSINGS MAY NOT DAMPEN THE WEEKLY BULLISHNESS AS LONG AS SPOT NIFTY CONTINUES TO STAY ABOVE  THE WEEKLY SUPPORT LINE COMING FROM  WEEKENDING 30TH AUGUST LOW OF 5119 JOINING THE WEEKENDING 4TH OCTOBER LOW OF 5701. HOWEVER A FURTHER SLIDE DURING THE REMAINING DAYS OF OCTOBER TO CLOSE THE WEEK BELOW   6030 SPOT  WHICH IS THE LOW OF WEEK ENDING 18TH OCTOBER  & ALSO BELOW THE WEEKLY SUPPORT LINE MAY DELAY ALL THE HOPES OF HEFTY BULLS PLOTTING TO MAKE A NEW LIFE TIME HIGH ABOVE 6357 BY END THIS YEAR OR VERY EARLY NEXT YEAR.

THE INDICATORS IN THE DAILY CHARTS CERTAINLY LOOK OVERBOUGHT AND SOME CRITICAL INDICATORS LIKE MACD & CCI ARE  FORMING DISTINCT NEGATIVE DIVERGENCES. NIFTY’S CLOSING ON FRIDAY AT 6144 AT THE DOJI LOW OF THURSDAY AND BELOW THE  7TH NRB OF 22ND OCTOBER AND ALSO BELOW THE DOJI LOW OF  21ST OCTOBER ARE ALL TOPPING OUT INDICATIONS THAT MAY ENCOURAGE INTRADAY BEARS TO INDULGE IN MERCILESS SHORTING ACTION ON EVERY INTRADAY RISE OF SPOT NIFTY BY HAVING A STOP LOSS ABOVE THE YEARLY HIGH OF 6252 SPOT. 17TH OCTOBER LOW OF 6032 AROUND THE DAILY PIVOT MAY BE THE LAST HOPE FOR THE BULLS BEFORE THEY QUIETLY  DECIDE TO JOIN HANDS  WITH THE BEARS IN PULLING NIFTY FURTHER DOWN TOWARDS THE  SEQUENTIAL FIBO LEVELS OF 6046, 5980 & 5913 AS LEVELED IN THE CHART ABOVE. IN CASE BULLS WANT TO SAVE THEMSELVES THEN THEY HAVE TO LIFT NIFTY UP TO BREACH AND SUSTAIN ABOVE  FRIDAY’S NRB HIGH OF 6174  TO FORCE & INDUCE BEARS INTO SOME SHORT COVERING THAT MAY LIFT SPOT NIFTY TOWARDS RETESTING AND BREACHING OF THE NEW YEARLY HIGH OF 6252 FAILING WHICH THE BULLS MAY HAVE TO BOW DOWN & LET THE BEARS RULE THE MARKETS FOR THE REMAINING DAYS OF OCTOBER TOWARDS SUB 6000 SPOT NIFTY LEVELS.

FOR INTRADAY TRADING OF NIFTY FUTURES ON MONDAY 28TH OCTOBER  EXPECT THE BEARISHNESS TO CONTINUE IN CASE BULLS FAIL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LIFT SPOT NIFTY ABOVE  6174. INTRADAY TRADERS ARE LIKELY TO MAKE HANDSOME GAINS IN RESORTING TO BOLD SHORTING ON EVERY INTRADAY RISE  BY HAVING A STOP LOSS ABOVE 6174 SPOT ON AT LEAST A 15 MINUTE A CANDLE CLOSING BASIS. BEAR DOMINANCE MAY SEE INITIAL LOW OF  6125 BELOW WHICH SUB 6100 TOWARDS 6095 SPOT IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY .  IN CASE BEARS CAN MANGE TO DOMINATE THE “NO MANS LAND” ZONE OF  6095 TO 6090 SPOT THEN ONE MAY SEE A STONE LIKE FALL TOWARDS 6074 OR EVEN 6060 TO 6055 SPOT LEVELS BEFORE ONE CAN EVEN THINK OF ANY BOUNCE.

SIMILARLY ON THE HIGHER SIDE, IN CASE BULLS CAN MANAGE TO CONQUER THE CRITICAL SPOT NIFTY LEVELS OF 6174 TO 6180, THEN ONE MAY SEE BEARS INDULGING IN SHORT COVERING TO PROPEL SPOT NIFTY TOWARDS  6200 OR HIGHER LEVELS OF 6210. EVEN  A DECISIVE BREACH OF 6160 TO 6165 SPOT NIFTY ZONE TO STAY ABOVE THIS ZONE FOR A FEW MINUTES TO CLOSE A 30 MINUTE CANDLE ABOVE IT MAY SEE BEARS RUNNING AWAY BY COVERING THEIR SHORTS WITHOUT EVEN WAITING FOR THE CRITICAL SPOT ZONE OF 6174 TO 6180.

WEEKLY ANALYSIS FOR WEEK ENDING 11TH OCTOBER

THE TRUNCATED WEEK ENDED ON A BULLISH NOTE IN SPITE OF THE DISAPPOINTMENT FROM RBI GOVERNOR A WEEK EARLIER AND  BAD NEWS FROM US ON THEIR  DEBT CEILING ISSUE.. LIKE IT WAS MENTIONED EARLIER THAT THE MARKETS MOSTLY ARE MADE TO MOVE AGAINST THE GENERAL CONSENSUS HAS PROVED RIGHT AGAIN. THE MONTH OF OCTOBER STARTED WITH A BANG AND HAS CONTINUED SO FAR TO REMAIN BUOYANT AGAINST ALL THE ODDS. THE CRITICAL ZONE OF 5919 TO 5939 WAS BREACHED BY SPOT NIFTY ON FRIDAY TWICE BUT FAILING ON BOTH THE OCCASIONS  TO CLOSE AT LEAST A 30 MINUTE CANDLE ABOVE THE CRITICAL ZONE   THAT RESULTED IN A LAST SESSION SELL OFF  ON FRIDAY FROM THE DAY HIGH OF 5950 TO FINALLY CLOSE THE DAY AT 5907 VERY NEAR THE THURSDAY’S CLOSING OF 5909 BUT FAR ABOVE PREVIOUS WEEK’S CLOSING OF 5833 SPOT GENERATING SOME FALSE HOPES FOR THE BULLS.

ALTHOUGH, THE WEEKLY CLOSING WAS POSITIVE BUT NIFTY MADE THE SECOND CONSECUTIVE WEEK OF LOWER HIGH & LOWER LOW, THUS RETAINING THE OVERALL BEARISH OUTLOOK THAT MAY SEE FURTHER FALLS DURING THE COMING WEEK SHOULD NIFTY FAIL TO DECISIVELY CLOSE ABOVE THE CRITICAL ZONE OF 5919 TO 5939 SPOT. AN INTRADAY  BREACH OF THE CRITICAL ZONE TWICE & ON BOTH THE OCCASIONS FAILING TO SUSTAIN ABOVE THE ZONE EVEN IN THE 30 MINUTE CHART & FALLING TO FORM PIN BARS IN INTRADAY CHARTS & TO CLOSE BELOW THE CRITICAL  ZONE IN THE FORM OF AN INVERTED HAMMER IN THE DAILY CHARTS DOES NOT DEPICT COURAGE AMONGST THE HALF HEARTED BULLS THAT MAY SEE FURTHER FALLS.

THE 3 DAYS OF RISE FROM THE  1ST OCTOBER HAMMER BOTTOM LOW OF 5701 IS PERHAPS THE UPWARD RETRACEMENT TO THE SEVEN DAYS OF SLIDE FROM 19TH SEPTEMBER HIGHS OF 6162 TILL 1ST OCTOBER LOWS OF 5701. DURING LAST WEEK SPOT NIFTY HAS ALREADY RETRACED THE 50% LEVEL OF 5920 AND THE BEARS ARE PERHAPS WAITING FOR THE  MORE LOGICAL FIBO 61.8% RETRACEMENT LEVEL OF  5973 BY WHICH TIME MANY NEW LONGS WOULD HAVE BEEN CREATED AFTER THE DECISIVE BREACH OF 5919 TO 5939 ZONE THAT WOULD GIVE THE BEARS THE RIGHT OPPORTUNITY TO GO ON A SHORTING

MARKETS FOR THURSDAY 3RD OCTOBER

THE WAY NIFTY AFTER OPENING GAP UP ON TUESDAY, WENT DOWN TO BREACH MONDAY’S LOW OF 5718 TO MAKE A LOWER LOW OF 5700 & THEN WENT UP TO CLOSE IN THE FORM OF A GREEN HAMMER ABOVE THE MID POINT OF MONDAY’S CANDLE AND ABOVE THE DAILY PIVOT IS PERHAPS AN EARLY INDICATION THAT THE DOWN SIDE MOMENTUM WILL STALL FOR SOME MORE SESSIONS BEFORE ITS RESUMPTION TOWARDS 5500 LEVELS AS PART OF THE ‘ABC ‘ ZIGZAG CORRECTION TO RETRACE 61.8% OF THE 1023 POINT, A DISTINCT & COMPLETED 5 WAVE RISE FROM 28TH AUGUST LOW OF 5119 TILL 19TH SEPTEMBER HIGH OF 6142 SPOT. ANOTHER PRICE EVENT THAT MAY GIVE SOME REST TO THE BEARS IS THAT ON TUESDAY NIFTY SPOT HAS CLOSED ABOVE THE CONFLUENCE POINT OF 34, 50 & 200 DAYS EMA WHICH TOO IS RIGHT AT THE DAILY PIVOT. SO THE BULLS MUST TAKE FULL ADVANTAGE OF THIS TECHNICAL SITUATION AND NEVER MISS THIS OPPORTUNITY OF LIFTING NIFTY SPOT AT LEAST TOWARDS THE SPRING ACTION ZONE OF 5919 TO 5939 FROM WHERE ON ONE WILL SEE THE REAL BATTLE BETWEEN THE BULLS & THE BEARS TO REGAIN SUPREMACY.

ON TUESDAY NIFTY SPOT MADE A HIGH OF 5787 AND HAS CLOSED AROUND 5780 NEAR THE HIGHEST POINT OF THE DAY BUT QUIETLY AVOIDING THE GAP ZONE BETWEEN 5808 TO 5818 FORMED BY MONDAY’S OPENING GAP HIGH BELOW FRIDAY’S LOW. SO, THE BULLS WOULD DEFINITELY PREFER TO ENTER THE GAP ZONE AND MORE IMPORTANTLY STAY ABOVE THE GAP. HOWEVER A FAILURE ON THE PART OF THE BULLS TO ENTER THE GAP OR FALL TO LOWER LEVELS BELOW THE GAP AFTER MAKING A FALSE ENTRY INTO THE GAP WILL AWAKEN THE RESTING BEARS TO CHASE THE BULLS AWAY AGAIN SOUTHWARDS TO FULFILL THE BALANCE OF THE NARROW GAP BETWEEN TUESDAY’S LOWS OF 5700 AND 6TH SEPTEMBER HIGH OF 5688 SPOT. ON TUESDAY THE BULLS PERHAPS LEFT THIS GAP BETWEEN 6TH SEPTEMBER HIGH OF 5688 & 10TH SEPTEMBER LOW OF 5738 HALF OPEN AS AN ESCAPE ROUTE SO THAT ON BEING CHASED BY THE BEARS FROM COMING FRIDAY OR EARLY NEXT WEEK, CAN AT LEAST CRAWL THROUGH IT TOWARDS 5631, 5579 OR EVEN 5510.

FOR INTRADAY TRADING ON THURSDAY, THE LEFT OVER MOMENTUM SHOULD CONTINUE UPWARDS (HOPING THAT TUESDAY’S HIGH CLOSING WAS NOT A BULL TRAP) & BULLS SHOULD TAKE FULL ADVANTAGE OF RESTING BEARS TO CONQUER THE GAP BETWEEN 5808 TO 5819. A FAILURE ON THE PART OF BULLS TO ENTER THE GAP OR FALTER WITHIN THE GAP WILL SEE THE BEARS CHARGING FROM ALL DIRECTIONS TO HAMMER THE BULLS OUT OF SHAPE SO THAT THE BULLS CAN FORGET THE GREEN HAMMER OF TUESDAY. THE SPOT ZONE BETWEEN 5765 TO 5747 IS TOO CRITICAL FOR THE BULLS TO HOLD ON TO THIS LEVELS FAILING WHICH BULLS WILL VANISH FROM THE SIGHT OF THE BEARS. IN ANY CASE FALLING BELOW SPOT NIFTY LEVEL OF 5747 AND SUSTAINING BELOW IT WILL SEE LOWER LEVELS OF 5727 FOLLOWED BY 5690 TO 5685 TO CLOSE AT LEAST THE ENTIRE GAP TILL 5688 SPOT THAT WAS LEFT HALF OPEN ON TUESDAY. SUSTAINING ABOVE MONDAY 30 SEPTEMBER GAP HIGH OF 5808 SPOT BY CLOSING A 30 MINUTE CANDLE ABOVE IT WILL NOT ONLY SEE NIFTY GOING UP TO CLOSE THE GAP TILL 5819 OR A LITTLE ABOVE IT TOWARDS 5828 BUT ALSO WILL AIM FOR HIGHER LEVELS OF 5844 FOLLOWED BY 5878 SPOT, ALTHOUGH STILL MUCH BELOW THE CRITICAL TURNING POINT RESISTANCE OF 5919 TO 5939 SPOT NIFTY ZONE. (INTRADAY TRADING LEVELS FOR NIFTY FUTURES IS FOR SUBSCRIBERS ONLY)

WEEKLY ANALYSIS FOR WEEK ENDING 4TH OCTOBER

AFTER FOUR CONSECUTIVE WEEKS OF RISE FROM 28TH AUGUST LOW OF 5819 TILL  19TH SEPTEMBER HIGH OF 6142, MOVING UP BY 1023 POINTS, SPOT NIFTY CORRECTED AS WAS EXPECTED AND FORMED A RED WEEKLY CANDLE BY CLOSING THE WEEK AT 5833 NOT VERY FAR OFF FROM THE DANGEROUS 16TH AUGUST LOWS OF 5797  FORMING THE START OF THE DOWN SLOPPING NECKLINE OF A LIKELY HEAD & SOLDER FORMATION. A DECISIVE BREACH OF THIS DOWN SLOPPING NECK LINE  NOW AROUND 5757 SPOT NIFTY LEVELS WILL SEE MASSIVE SHORTING INTEREST DEVELOPING  AMONGST BOTH THE BULLS & BEARS THAT SHOULD SEE A FURTHER FALL BY ABOUT 450 POINTS TOWARDS SUB 5400 LEVELS.

A DECISIVE BREACH OF THIS NECK LINE AS CAN BE SEEN IN THE CHART ABOVE, WILL  GULP IN ONE GO THE 38.2% SUPPORT OF 5751, THE 50% SUPPORT OF 5631 &  IT WILL NOT EVEN SPARE THE LOGICAL  61.8% SUPPORT AROUND 5510. THE ONLY WAY THIS BEARS TSUNAMI CAN BE HALTED  IS  BY NOT ONLY HOLDING STRONGLY THE NECK LINE BETWEEN 5797 TO 5757 BUT ALSO MOVING UP TO BREACH & SUSTAIN ABOVE THE CRITICAL RESISTANCE OF  5919 TO 5939 SPOT ZONE THAT WILL AT LEAST  SUPPRESS  THE BUTCHER MONTH OF OCTOBER WAITING WITH GRINDING TEETH  TO CRUSH THE BONES OF THE BULLS.

HOWEVER IF THE BULLS INSTEAD OF SHIVERING BEFORE THE START OF OCTOBER, IF CONSPIRE WITH  THE WEAK BEARS TO LIFT SPOT NIFTY TO CLOSE ABOVE 5919 TO 5939 ZONE THEN EVEN THE DEADLY MONTH OF OCTOBER MAY BE SEEN  TURNING ROMANTIC TO ROMANTICIZE WITH THE COURAGEOUS BULLS TO SEE A NEW HIGH ABOVE 19TH SEPTEMBER HIGH OF 6142 TO OPEN ITS  GATES TO WELCOME THE BULLS  TO BREACH

WEEKLY ANALYSIS FOR WEEK ENDING 27TH SEPTEMBER

IN SPITE OF THE DISAPPOINTMENT FROM THE RBI GOVERNOR ON FRIDAY, THAT SAW NIFTY SPOT FALLING BY NEARLY 200 POINTS FROM FRIDAY’S INTRADAY HIGH OF 6131 TO A LOW F 5933, THE WAY NIFTY BOUNCED BACK TO CLOSE THE DAY AT 6012 ABOVE THE RESISTANCE LINE ROUND THE ZONE OF 5990 TO 6000 WHICH JOINS THE 20TH MAY 2013 SWING HIGH OF 6229 & 23RD JULY SWING HIGH OF 6093 AS CAN BE SEEN IN THE WEEKLY CHART OF SPOT NIFTY ABOVE, IS AN INDICATION THAT THERE IS STILL SOME MORE UPSIDE STEAM LEFT IN NIFTY THAT SHOULD TAKE IT UP TOWARDS THE INITIAL RESISTANCE LINE AROUND 6212 FOLLOWED BY THE FINAL RESISTANCE LINE AROUND 6313 AS GIVEN IN THE CHART ABOVE. AS ONE SAW THE INTRADAY CORRECTION ON FRIDAY, ONE SHOULD BE PREPARED TO SEE SIMILAR SHARP CORRECTIONS AFTER EVERY RISE TOWARDS THESE CRITICAL RESISTANCE LEVELS.

THERE IS MORE LIKELY HOOD OF A CORRECTION SINCE NIFTY SEEMS TO HAVE COMPLETED THE 5 WAVE RISE STARTING FROM 28TH AUGUST LOWS OF 5118 TILL 19TH SEPTEMBER HIGHS OF 6142. EVEN IF NIFTY RISES AGAIN A FEW POINTS MORE TO COMPLETE THE 5TH WAVE, IT MAY BE TOUGH FOR IT TO BREACH THE RESISTANCE LINES AROUND 6212 & 6313. SO, IT IS BETTER THAT NIFTY FALLS, RETRACES A PORTION OF THE 1026 POINT RISE FROM 5118 TILL 6142 TOWARDS AT LEAST 50% AROUND 5619 OR 61.8% LEVELS AROUND 5505 TO RESUME THE NEXT LEG OF THE UP MOVE TO ENCOUNTER & SUCCESSFULLY BREACH BOTH THE RESISTANCE LINES ABOVE. THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY THAT NIFTY INSTEAD OF FALLING IN AN “ABC” ZIGZAG PATTERN MAY AGAIN CONSOLIDATE IN A FLAT TYPE TIME CORRECTION TO SMOOTHLY PASS OVER THE DEVASTATING MONTH OF OCTOBER TO RESUME THE NEXT LEG OF THE UP MOVE

MARKETS FOR FRIDAY 20TH SEPTEMBER

NIFTY CONTINUED WITH THE MINI BREAK OUT GIVEN ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE MONSTER BREAKOUT ON THURSDAY AND THE TECHNICALS CLEARLY INDICATE MUCH HIGHER LEVELS FOR NIFTY BEFORE THE END OF THIS MARKET FRIENDLY MONTH OF SEPTEMBER . NIFTY SPOT HAVING BREACHED THE 23RD JULY HIGH OF 6093 AND HAVING CLOSED ABOVE IT AT 6115 FINDS NOW THE NEXT RESISTANCE AROUND THE LONG TERM RESISTANCE LINE AROUND 6206 TO 6230 SPOT ZONE AROUND WHICH ALSO REMAINS THE HIGH OF 20TH MAY 2013 AT 6229 AND ALSO THE MONTHLY PARSAR AROUND 6208. SO ANOTHER BIG GAP UP ON MONDAY OR JUST AFTER THE RBI GOVERNOR’S ANNOUNCEMENTS ON FRIDAY CAN ONLY SKIP THIS LAST CITADEL OF THE HARD CORE BEARS BEFORE REACHING AND BREACHING THE ALL TIME HIGHS OF 6338 SPOT THAT WAS REACHED ON THE DIWALI NIGHT OF 5TH NOVEMBER 2010. SO ONE NEEDS TO SEE HOW NIFTY SPOT NEGOTIATES THE CRITICAL ZONE BETWEEN 6200 TO 6230 .

FOR TRADING ON MONDAY IT IS BETTER TO WAIT FOR THE ANNOUNCEMENT OF RBI GOVERNOR BEFORE JUMPING INTO HECTIC BUYING ALTHOUGH ONE MAY HOLD ON TO THE CARRIED CALLS AND MAY ADD MORE CALLS AND SOME PUTS JUST BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF RBI GOVERNOR. MARKETS LOOKS EXTREMELY BULLISH AND USE INTRADAY CORRECTIONS TO BUY ONLY AS LONG AS SPOT NIFTY CONTINUES TO STAY ABOVE THURSDAY’S OPENING GAP LOW OF 6047. AN ENTRY INTO THE GAP & THEN FAILING TO COME UP MAY BE THE FIRST SIGNAL TO REDUCE LONGS & ADD PUTS.

MARKETS FOR THURSDAY 19TH SEPTEMBER

NIFTY HAS GIVEN THE INITIAL INDICATION OF A BREAK OUT ON THE UP SIDE HAVING BREACHED THE CRITICAL 5878 SPOT LEVEL AND HAVING CLOSED ABOVE IT. ALTHOUGH NIFTY SPOT NEEDS TO DECISIVELY BREACH THE 16TH SEPTEMBER HIGH OF 5956 TO CLOSE ABOVE IT TO CONFIRM THE END TO THE 4TH WAVE FLAT AND ONSET OF THE 5TH UP WAVE, YET ONE SHOULD BE REASONABLY SURE TO SEE THE UP MOVE CONTINUING UNLESS FED CHAIRMAN SPOILS THE PARTY FOR INDIAN MARKETS & IF THAT HAPPENS THEN ONE HAS TO LOOK FOR THE RAJAN EFFECT THROUGH THE RBI ANNOUNCEMENT EARLY NEXT WEEK TO KNOW THE FINAL FATE OF INDIAN MARKETS WHICH LOOKS AS IF IT IS HIGHLY POISED FOR A BIG UP MOVE.

AS OF NOW BUY EVERY DECLINE MAY BE FOLLOWED HOPING FOR A SURPRISE GIFT FROM FED CHAIRMAN. IN CASE OF ANY ADVERSE NEWS FROM U.S., THE CRITICAL SPOT NIFTY LEVEL OF 5840 HAS TO BE SAVED BY THE BULLS TO HOPE FOR THE RESUMPTION OF THE UP MOVE OR ELSE IT WILL BE THE BEARS WHO WILL RULE THE MARKETS AGAIN. LETS HOPE FOR THE BEST & LOOK FOR A MEGA BREAKOUT ABOVE THE 16TH SEPTEMBER HIGH OF 5956 TOWARDS 6000 SPOT NIFTY LEVELS IN NEXT FEW DAYS.

MARKETS FOR WEDNESDAY 18TH SEPTEMBER

NIFTY IS STILL CONFINED WITHIN A 4TH WAVE FLAT AFTER MAKING A 3RD WAVE HIGH OF 5956 AND THIS FLAT MAY CONTINUE FOR A DAY OR TWO MORE WITH THE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY INDICATING A BREAK OUT OF THE 4TH WAVE FLAT. THE NEW WAVE WHICH STARTED FROM 28TH AUGUST LOW OF 5119 WENT UP TILL 3RD SEPTEMBER HIGH OF 5579 AS THE 1ST WAVE, CAME DOWN TILL 5323 AS THE 2ND WAVE, THEN MADE A HIGH OF 5929 AS THE 3RD WAVE. THE PRESENT FLAT IS THE 4TH DAY OF CONSOLIDATION WITH THE HIGH OF 5957 AND LOW OF 5797 & THIS ZONE MAY CONTINUE FOR SOME DAYS TILL A DECISIVE BREAK TAKES PLACE IN ANY DIRECTION.

THE 4TH WAVE FLAT GENERALLY SHOULD BREAK OUT ON THE UP SIDE, EVEN THOUGH THERE MAY BE MANY A TIMES BREACH OF THE HIGH OR THE LOWS TO TRIGGER STOP LOSSES. SO FOR WEDNESDAY ALSO THIS FLAT MAY CONTINUE WITHIN THE TIGHT ZONE OF 5878 SPOT ON THE HIGHER SIDE AND 5804 SPOT ON THE LOWER SIDE WITH ONE OR TWO

MARKETS FOR TUESDAY 17TH SEPTEMBER

MARKETS STILL LOOK HIGHLY BULLISH AS LONG AS SPOT NIFTY SUSTAINS ABOVE 5775 TO 5760. SO USE INITIAL DECLINES TOWARDS THESE LEVELS OF SPOT NIFTY TO BUY FOR QUICK INTRADAY GAINS. HOWEVER A CLOSURE OF SPOT NIFTY BELOW THE 13TH  THE FRIDAY’S 7TH NRB LOW OF 5822 SHOULD BE THE EARLY SIGNAL TO BOLDLY SHORT THE MARKETS  AS IN THAT CASE BIGGER FALL CAN BE EXPECTED.

FOR INTRADAY TRADING OF NIFTY FUTURES, HAVE MONDAY’S LOWS OF 5815 OR 5800 AS A STOP LOSS ON A 30 MINUTE OR A 15 MINUTE CANDLE CLOSING BASIS AND TRADE LONG ON EVERY INTRADAY DECLINE TOWARDS 5815 TO 5800  FUTURE ZONE TO REVERSE FOR RUTHLESS SHORTING BELOW THIS CRITICAL ZONE. SIMILARLY ON THE HIGHER SIDE A DECISIVE BREACH AND SUSTAINING ABOVE THE FUTURE ZONE OF 5902 TO 5909 CAN SEE MONSTROUS UP MOVE TOWARDS 5966 INITIALLY FOLLOWED BY MONDAY’S TRADING HIGH OF 5989. A FAILURE TO BREACH AND SUSTAIN ABOVE THE FUTURE ZONE OF 5902 TO 5909 CAN BE BRUTALLY SHORTED FOR GOOD INTRADAY GAINS BY HAVING A STOP LOSS ABOVE THE ZONE TO REVERSE FOR GOING LONG.

WEEKLY ANALYSIS FOR WEEK ENDING 20TH SEPTEMBER

IT WAS ANOTHER BULLISH WEEK FOR NIFTY THAT SAW A WEEKLY HIGH OF 5932 SPOT TO FINALLY CLOSE AROUND 5850 COMPARED TO ITS EARLIER TRUNCATED WEEK ENDING 6TH SEPTEMBER CLOSING OF 5680. WELL,  ONE HAS TO WAIT AND SEE IF “THE RAJAN EFFECT” WILL FADE AWAY TO BE REPLACED BY THE “MODI EFFECT” OR   BOTH EFFECTS WILL COMBINE TO  DELIVER A SUPER ACCELERATOR IMPACT ON THE MARKETS. WELL, THE WEEKLY TECHNICALS PROJECT  ANOTHER ROCKET WEEK FOR INDIAN MARKETS TO OVERCOME THE OVERBOUGHT INDICATIONS GENERATED BY THE DAILY INDICATORS. THREE  DAYS OF PAUSE  STARTING FROM WEDNESDAY 11TH SEPTEMBER  & NIFTY MANAGING TO CLOSE ABOVE THE BEARS’ DARLING  THE 200 DAY SMA   STANDING STRAIGHT LIKE THE TRANCE SIBERIAN  RAILWAY LINE AROUND 5838 MAY BECOME THE BENCH MARK FOR THE BULLS TO PLAY THE DECEPTIVE GAME AROUND IT BY BREACHING IT BUT ONLY TO PULL UP AND CLOSE ABOVE IT AFTER EVERY INTRADAY BREACH.

THE MEGA BULLISHNESS INDICATED BY THE WEEKLY INDICATORS  LIKE  THE SLOW STOCH 15,3,3  & THE RSI 14 , BOTH MOVING UP TO BREACH  THE 50%+ MARK & WEEKLY CCI 14 PIERCING UPWARDS  &CLOSING ABOVE THE ZERO LEVEL  DEPICTS SOME MORE WEEKS OF UP MOVE EVEN THOUGH THE MAJOR RESISTANCE LINE JOINING THE    20 MAY SWING HIGH OF 6229 & 23RD JULY SWING HIGH OF 6093 STANDS  LIKE  THE INVINCIBLE  ROCK AROUND 6000 SPOT NIFTY LEVELS  THAT MAY ALWAYS  ATTRACT  THE BEARS TO GO

MARKETS FOR THURSDAY 12 SEPTEMBER

NIFTY EVEN AFTER FIVE CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF RISE STILL LOOKS BULLISH AND AT THE WORST CASE THERE MIGHT BE A MILD CORRECTION OR A FLAT PAUSE BEFORE IT MOVES UP TO ENCOUNTER THE MAJOR RESISTANCE LINE AROUND 6000 LEVELS AS CAN BE SEEN IN THE CHART OF SPOT NIFTY ABOVE. AN INTRADAY DECLINE TOWARDS THE LOWS OF WEDNESDAY AROUND 5838 TO 5828 SPOT MAY BE USED TO BUY WITH A STOP LOSS BELOW THIS CRITICAL ZONE TO REVERT TO SHORTING SHOULD SPOT NIFTY SLIDES AND MORE IMPORTANTLY CLOSES A 30 MINUTE CANDLE BELOW 5838 TO 5828 CRITICAL ZONE WHERE ALSO REMAINS THE BEARS BEST FRIEND THE 200 DAY SMA. SIMILARLY SUSTAINING ABOVE WEDNESDAY’S HIGH OF 5924 SPOT BY CLOSING A 30 MINUTE CANDLE ABOVE IT MAY SEE ANOTHER SHARP MOVE. A FAILURE TO SUSTAIN ABOVE 5924 CAN SEE SUDDEN INTRADAY FALL.

 A SLIDE BELOW 5885 SPOT MAY BE THE INITIAL SIGNAL OF WEAKNESS IN NIFTY THAT MAY SEE NEXT SUPPORT AROUND 5865 FOLLOWED BY A DIVE TOWARDS THE 200 DAY SMA WITHIN THE CRITICAL ZONE OF 5838 TO 5828 SPOT NIFTY LEVELS. FOR INTRADAY TRADING OF NIFTY FUTURES, IT FINDS INITIAL SUPPORT AROUND 5913 TO 5903 FUTURE LEVELS BELOW WHICH ONE MAY EXPECT 5885 FOLLOWED BY 5871 & THEN 5860 TO 5851 THAT WAS THE LOW OF WEDNESDAY. SUSTAINING BELOW 5900 FOLLOWED BY 5880 MAY ENCOURAGE GOOD INTRADAY SHORTING TO SEE LOWER LEVELS OF 5850 FOLLOWED BY 5820 TO 5815 FUTURE LEVELS. SIMILARLY ON THE HIGHER SIDE EXPECT INITIAL RESISTANCE AROUND 5949 FOLLOWED BY 5966 & THEN 5979. SUSTAINING ABOVE 5979 TO 5989 BY CLOSING A 30 MINUTE CANDLE MAY SEE MUCH HIGHER LEVELS TOWARDS 5995 FOLLOWED BY 6006 TO 6016 TO EVEN EYE FOR 6050 FUTURE LEVELS IN A DAY OR TWO ALTHOUGH SHORTERS MAY TRY TO SHORT AROUND 6000 SPOT LEVELS BY HAVING A STOP LOSS AT A DISTANCE AWAY FROM 6000 SPOT NIFTY LEVELS.

WEEKLY ANALYSIS FOR WEEK ENDING 13TH SEPTEMBER

THE WEEK ENDING 6TH SEPTEMBER WAS A HIGHLY TRIUMPHANT WEEK FOR THE BULLS. SPOT NIFTY BOUNCED UP FROM THE  LOW OF  5318  FROM AROUND THE  CRITICAL 200 WEEK EMA LEVEL  & BY THE WEEK END OF FRIDAY 6TH SEPTEMBER NIFTY WENT UP TO MAKE A HIGH OF  5688 TO CLOSE THE WEEK  AROUND  5680 VERY NEAR THE HIGH OF THE WEEK DEPICTING FURTHER BULLISHNESS FOR THE COMING WEEK TOO. ALL TRADERS & INVESTORS MUST KEEP IN MIND THAT WHEN EVERYTHING LOOKS HIGHLY BULLISH AND ALMOST ALL THE ANALYSTS START TO DELIVER BULLISH SPEECHES THAT’S THE TIME MARKETS PLAY THEIR  NASTY  GAME OF FOOLING EVERYONE BY TURNING BEARISH. TO THIS EXTENT LIKELY MISSILE STRIKE BY US  ON SYRIA DURING THE COMING WEEK  MAY PUT A BREAK  AT LEAST FOR SOME DAYS TO THE THUNDERING BULLISHNESS THAT  INDIAN MARKETS HAD DISPLAYED DURING  LAST WEEK.

 IN ANY CASE,  EVEN THOUGH NIFTY HAD A WEEKLY CLOSING  EXACTLY AT THE WEEKLY PIVOT, YET AS LONG AS NIFTY DOES NOT MOVE UP TO BREACH AND MORE IMPORTANTLY HAVE A WEEKLY CLOSE ABOVE THE CLUSTER OF THREE CRITICAL  20, 34 & 50 WEEKLY EMAS ENTANGLED WITHIN THE ZONE OF 5717 TO 5747 RESOUNDING BULLISHNESS MAY NOT BE EXPECTED.( ALSO DON’T FORGET THAT THE FIBO 61.8%  RETRACEMENT CALCULATED FROM  23RD JULY SWING HIGH OF 6093 TILL 28TH  AUGUST SWING LOW OF 5118  FALLS AT 5720 WHICH TOO IS WITHIN THESE 3 CRITICAL EMA  CLUSTER ZONE). RESOUNDING BULLISHNESS MAY BE EXPECTED ONLY AFTER  THE BREACH & CLOSE ABOVE THE WEEK ENDING 16TH AUGUST HIGH OF 5757 THAT

MARKETS FOR FRIDAY 06 SEPTEMBER

NIFTY AS EXPECTED OPENED WITH A BIG GAP OF 100 POINTS AT 5560 WENT UP AND BREACHED TUESDAY’S MONSTROUS RED CANDLE HIGH OF 5582 TO MAKE A HIGH OF 5624 EXACTLY AT THE 34 DAY SMA JUST SHORT OF THE 50 DAY EMA AROUND 5630 A LOW OF 5553 TO REMAIN IN A TIGHT RANGE OF 71 POINTS TO FORM A 7TH NRB. A GOOD 123 SETUP HAS BEEN FORMED ON THURSDAY BY BREACHING AND CLOSING ABOVE TUESDAY 3RD SEPTEMBER HIGH OF 5582 THAT SHOULD LIFT NIFTY FURTHER UP TOWARDS 200 DAY EMA LEVEL OF 5727 FOLLOWED BY 5757  THEN AUGUST MONTH HIGH OF 5808 IN QUICK TIME AS PER THE LEVELS INDICATED IN THE CHART ABOVE. THE TRUNCATED COMING WEEK WITH MONDAY BEING HOLIDAY MAY SLOW DOWN THE PACE OF THE UP MOVE ON FRIDAY BUT COMING WEEK STARTING FROM TUESDAY AFTER SEEING A DECEPTIVE PAUSE MAY RESUME THE UP MOVE TOWARDS MUCH HIGHER LEVELS WITH INTERMITTENT DECEPTIVE PAUSE OR DOWN SIDE CORRECTIONS TO WEED OUT WEAKER BULLS. NIFTY FUTURES HAD CLOSED AT 5601

FOR FRIDAY’S INTRADAY TRADING OF NIFTY FUTURES, IT MAY FIND INITIAL SUPPORT BETWEEN 5590 TO 5580 BELOW WHICH IT MAY SLIDE TO AROUND 5568 FOLLOWED BY 5555 FOR A BOUNCE IN ORDER TO AVOID THE THURSDAY’S GAP ENTRY. ENTERING INTO THE GAP BELOW 5555 MAY SEE 5544 FOLLOWED BY 5533; THEN 5515 TO THREATEN 5500 TO REACH 5490 LEVELS. SIMILARLY ON THE HIGHER SIDE BULLS NEED TO BREACH AND STAY ABOVE 5626 TO AIM FOR THURSDAYS HIGH OF 5640. BREACHING AND MORE IMPORTANTLY SUSTAINING ABOVE 5640 TO 5646 MAY TRIGGER MASSIVE SHORT COVERING TO SEE SKYWARD MOVE TOWARDS 5656, 5677,5688 TO EVEN EYE FOR POST 5700 TOWARDS 5707. WITH A LONG WEEKEND , SOME WEAKER BULLS MAY TRY BOOKING PROFIT ON THE RISE TO HAVE A PEACEFUL WEEKEND BY BUYING CALLS AFTER OR ON THE RISE AND PUTS ON DECLINES TO CARRY BOTH THE CALL THE PUT FOR TUESDAY TO KEEP THEMSELVES ALIVE WITH THE MARKETS.

MARKETS FOR THURSDAY 05 SEPTEMBER

NIFTY SPOT FROM 28TH AUGUST LOW OF 5119 TILL TUESDAY 3RD AUGUST HIGH OF 5579, RETRACED NEARLY 61.8% TO 5323 ON WEDNESDAY AND WENT UP TILL 5460 ON WEDNESDAY TO CLOSE NEAR THE HIGH OF THE DAY AROUND 5448. THE MARKETS AFTER THE BIG FALL ON TUESDAY & ITS SUBSEQUENT RISE ON WEDNESDAY TECHNICALLY DEPICTS MORE UP MOVE IN STORE FOR NIFTY. A RISE ABOVE SPOT NIFTY LEVEL OF 5460 TO SUSTAIN ABOVE IT WILL SEE A SHARP UP MOVE AND A FALL TO BREACH AND SUSTAIN BELOW 5383 WILL SEE A SHARP DECLINE TOWARDS WEDNESDAY’S LOWS OF 5353 THAT WILL THREATEN FURTHER FALLS. MOST LIKELY NIFTY IS ALL SET TO MOVE UP FURTHER EVEN IF A BULL TRAP WAS FORMED ON WEDNESDAY END. SUSTAINING ABOVE 5460 CAN SEE 5480 FOLLOWED BY 5511 SPOT NIFTY LEVELS TO LOOK FOR TAKING OUT THE TUESDAY’S OPENING & DECEPTIVE HIGH CUM BULL TRAP LEVEL OF 5579.

 NIFTY FUTURE TRADERS MAY EXPECT A GAP UP TO THE RESISTANCE OF 5474 SUSTAINING ABOVE WHICH ONE CAN EXPECT MASSIVE SHORT COVERING TOWARDS 5500 LEVELS THROUGH THE REST BAY AROUND 5488. SUSTAINING ABOVE 5500 CAN SEE NIFTY FUTURE MOVE UP TOWARDS 5520 OR EVEN 5550 OR HIGHER LEVELS TO EYE FOR THE TUESDAY’S BULL TRAP HIGH OF 5572. ON THE LOWER SIDE EXPECT STRONG SUPPORT AROUND 5434 FOLLOWED BY 5410 BELOW WHICH EXPECT THE MOST CRITICAL SUPPORT OF 5383. IN CASE 5383 IS NOT HELD AND A 30 MINUTE OR EVEN A 15 MINUTE CANDLE CLOSES BELOW IT THEN NIFTY FUTURE MAY SLIDE TOWARDS 5350 OR EVEN TO WARDS WEDNESDAY’S LOWS OF 5319 SUSTAINING BELOW WHICH MAY SPELL THE END GAME FOR THE REJUVENATED BULLS.

 
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MARKETS FOR TUESDAY 03 SEPTEMBER

NIFTY SAW A BIG BREAKOUT MOVE ON MONDAY AND STILL MUCH MORE UPSIDE IS IN THE WAITING TO COME AFTER AN EXPECTED PAUSE. EVEN THOUGH NIFTY HAS MOVED UP FOR FOUR DAYS IN A ROW, THERE IS EVERY POSSIBILITY OF MORE RISE THAT ENCOURAGES TRADERS TO LOOK FOR AN INTRADAY DECLINE TO BUY FOR GOOD GAINS. SPOT NIFTY HAS CLOSED AROUND 5550 ON MONDAY, A MANIPULATED FALL TOWARDS 5500 SHOULD BE USED TO BUY FOR GOOD INTRADAY GAINS WITH A STOP LOSS . SPOT NIFTY SUSTAINING ABOVE 5460 OR 5454 INVITES HEAVY BUYING ON DECLINES BY HAVING STOP LOSS BELOW THESE LEVELS.

FOR NIFTY FUTURE’S TRADING ON TUESDAY, EXPECT ANOTHER GAP UP OPENING IF THE HIGH CLOSING OF MONDAY WAS NOT A BULL TRAP TO TRAP THE HALF HEARTED BULLS WHO CARRIED LONGS. OTHER THAN THE INITIAL ERRATIC JUMP, SUSTAINING ABOVE MONDAY’S HIGH OF 5568 FUTURE LEVELS CAN SEE SHORT COVERING TO AGAIN LIFT NIFTY FUTURE TOWARDS 5590 FOLLOWED BY 5616 & THEN 5646 FUTURE LEVELS. FAILURE TO BREACH & MORE IMPORTANTLY SUSTAIN ABOVE 5590 OR EVEN ABOVE MONDAYS HIGH OF 5568 WILL SEE INTRADAY SHORTING TO PULL NIFTY FUTURES DOWN TOWARDS 5525 TO 5520 INITIALLY & AFTER DISPLAY OF SOME GLORIOUS RETREAT BY THE WEAKER BULLS, NIFTY FUTURE MAY SLIDE DOWN TOWARDS SUB 5500 FOLLOWED BY EVEN 5464 FUTURE LEVELS. EXPECT A GOOD JUMP UP IN CASE INTRADAY DECLINE TOWARDS 5525 TO 5520 IS REPELLED BY THE BULLS WITHOUT DECISIVELY BREACHING THIS ZONE.


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• Per order rate - 20 Rs irrespective of no. of lots - FNO, equity.
• Direct NSE terminal from NSE server, no server from broker in between.
• Live technical analysis from NSE TAME on NSE server.
• Leverage 10 times - nifty stocks
• 5 times leverage on stocks.
• Account opening -300/-
• We use NSE NOW (Mobile App run by NSE).
• No commitment for lots per day.

To open trading account with ZERODHA, Leave your details below or mail your Name, Mob.No and contact email id to zerodhatrader@gmail.com, we will call you.. :)

Happy Trading :)

What is Open Interest, Max Pain and Put Call ratio

Dear Traders, 

Open Interest, MaxPain and Put Call ratio are some of the most misunderstood topics amongst beginner/amateur traders; below is our attempt to simplify these concepts for you: 

1. What do you mean by Open Interest (OI) in futures and options? 

Futures and options are contracts and similar to any other contract it is a contract between a buyer and a seller. Buyer is bullish (expecting the market to go up) and seller is bearish (expecting it to go down). Only when there is trade between a buyer and seller, a contract opens and all such open contracts are together called as open interest. So if I have bought 1 lot of Nifty expecting it to go up and you have sold 1 lot expecting it to go down, that makes it 1 open contract and hence the open interest of 1. 
Typically every derivative contract will have its own OI, Nifty August futures will have its own OI and September futures will have its own. Similarly, OI will be different for calls and puts of various strikes. 

2. What would you infer if someone said “Nifty futures went down with a huge addition of OI?” 

OI will go up when more people start participating or existing people start adding positions. According to the OI theory, typically when a market is going in a particular direction and there is a huge addition in OI, this means there is more conviction in the move.
So if the market is falling and there is a huge addition in OI, this would mean that the existing short positions which are making profits are adding more and hence the fall could be bigger. But understand that this is only theory and may or may not work like this in reality. 

3. What would you infer if someone said “OI on Nifty 5600 calls went up significantly?” 

While trading options, the money required to buy options is much lesser than what is required to write (sell first). So typically the people who write options are people having access to higher capital and hence the logic is that they are more proficient traders. 
I guess it is important to also understand why retail traders typically buy options and institutions sell them?
Retail traders are always looking at buying options because technically you have chances of making unlimited profits with investments of small premiums, very similar to how lottery tickets work. What a retail trader forgets to look at is the fact that the odds of winning are much lower than when you are writing options. Yes when you write/sell options the profit is limited and is probably just a fraction of the margin that is blocked for writing, but the odds of winning go up significantly.
Assume that Nifty is at 5550 and A buys the 5500 call at Rs. 100 as he is bullish and B who is bearish and expects the Nifty to be lower sells it at Rs. 100.
Since A is buying Rs. 5000 (50 x 100) is debited from his trading account and since B is writing options (around Rs 25000 is blocked as margin). A can make unlimited profits from his Rs 5000, but B can make a maximum of Rs 5000 from the Rs 25000 invested. But check out the odds and see which side you want to be on.
For A to win at Expiry: Only if Nifty is over 5600 (5500 + 100 invested into the call option)
For B to win at Expiry: Nifty stays where it is, Nifty goes below 5500 and Nifty goes up but stays below

MARKETS FOR THURSDAY 29TH AUGUST

NIFTY EVEN THOUGH MADE A LOW OF 5119 TO BOUNCE AND CLOSE THE DAY NEAR THE HIGHEST POINT OF THE DAY IN THE FORM OF ANOTHER BULLISH HAMMER THAT TOO A GREEN HAMMER, SUCH MOVEMENTS JUST BEFORE THE EXPIRY DAY MAY BE A BULL TRAP TO PULL NIFTY DOWN ON EXPIRY DAY MORNING . IN ANY CASE AS LONG AS SPOT NIFTY SUSTAINS BELOW 5353 & DOES NOT CLOSE AT LEAST A 30 MINUTE CANDLE ABOVE IT EVERY UPWARD DEAD CAT BOUNCE IS A SHORTING OPPORTUNITY. THE ZONE BETWEEN SPOT NIFTY LEVELS OF 5353 TO 5373 IS HIGHLY CRITICAL FOR THE BULLS AND BEARS TO SURVIVE. SO A RISE NEARER TO THIS ZONE OTHER THAN THE MOST UNLIKELY GAP UP CAN SEE A TOOTH & NAIL FIGHT BETWEEN THE BULLS AND BEARS TO CONQUER THIS CRITICAL ZONE OF 5353 TO 5373. A SLIDE TO SUSTAIN BELOW 5212 MAY CALL IT THE END GAME FOR THE BULLS THAT MAY SEE ANOTHER LOW BELOW WEDNESDAY’S LOWS OF 5119 SPOT.

BEING EXPIRY DAY, NO TRADE IS BEST TRADE. HOWEVER IF SOME ONE IS JUST ITCHING TO TRADE THEN BUY AN AUGUST CALL IF 5200 ON DECLINES TOWARDS IT AND A PUT OF 5300 ON RISE TOWARDS IT TO HOLD BOTH & HAVE THE FUN. OR ONE MAY AT START BUT A CALL & PUT AND ENJOY THE TRADING FUN TILL END. NIFTY FUTURES ON SUSTAINING ABOVE 5260 TO 5277 LOOKS STRONG TOWARDS 5300 oe even higher EXPIRY CLOSING & BELOW 5190 TO 5185 TURNS WEAK TOWARDS A 5100 OR 5150 EXPIRY CLOSING.( FENCE SITTERS MAY PREFER A 5200 OR 5252 EXPIRY). BESIDE THE CONTINUOUS ADVERSE NEWS TO PULL THE MARKETS DOWN, THE EXPIRY DAY SEEMS TO BE LUCKY FOR THE BULLS, MORE SO BULLISH THE DAY AFTER THE EXPIRY DAY.

MARKETS FOR WEDNESDAY 28TH AUGUST

THE MOMENT NIFTY BREACHED 5377 BLOOD BATH RESUMED & EVEN THE BULLS CONVERTED THEMSELVES AS BEARS TO SHORT THE MARKETS. A FALL AND CLOSE BELOW LAST WEEKS LOW OF 5254 LOOKS TO BE A CERTAINTY AND NIFTY IS ALL SET TO TEST SUB 5000 LEVELS BEFORE THE DEVASTATING MONTH OF AUGUST ENDS. TRADERS MAY DO WELL TO LOOK FOR AN INTRADAY RISE TO ADD TO THEIR SHORT POSITIONS AND PUTS OF SEPTEMBER. EVERY RISE MAY BE USED TO RUTHLESSLY SHORT FUTURES AND BUY PUTS. FOR FUTURE TRADERS INITIAL SUPPORT IS AROUND 5262 TO 5252. IN CASE THIS ZONE IS BREACHED BY CLOSER OF A 30 MINUTE CANDLE OR MOST PROBABLY A GAP DOWN THEN NIFTY FUTURE MAY SLIDE TOWARDS 5200 OR LOWER LEVELS. SO FAR AS RESISTANCE OR HIGHER SIDE IS CONCERNED IT IS NOT AT ALL WORTH KNOWING ANYTHING ABOUT THE HIGHER SIDE TILL THE EXPIRY DAY. DUMP EQUITY ON MINOR RISE & ACCUMULATE COMMODITY ON DECLINES.

MARKETS FOR TUESDAY 27TH AUGUST

NIFTY MADE A HIGHER HIGH , HIGHER LOW BUT A  MILDLY LOWER CLOSING COMPARED TO FRIDAY’S CLOSING. THE FUTURES PRICE RUNNING WITH A DISCOUNT TO THE SPOT PRICE IS A SIGN OF ENCOURAGEMENT FOR THE BULLS  TO SEE FURTHER PULLING UP OF NIFTY FUTURES AROUND THE EXPIRY TIME. BUYING THE DECLINES  MAY REWARD THE TRADERS AS TUESDAY MAY SEE INITIAL FALL FOLLOWED BY RISE  IN NIFTY.

 FOR INTRADAY TRADING OF NIFTY FUTURES  ON TUESDAY A SLIDE BELOW MONDAY’S LOWS OF 5440 MAY SEE FURTHER WEAKNESS TOWARDS 5424 FOLLOWED BY 5404 & THEN EVEN 5400 MAY BE BREACHED TO TEST 5380 TO 5370 FUTURE LEVELS. SIMILARLY ON THE HIGHER SIDE  INITIAL FALL TOWARDS 5380 TO 5370 CAN SEE GOOD INTRADAY BUYING TO LIFT NIFTY FUTURES ABOVE 5400 LEVELS AGAIN. HOWEVER NIFTY FUTURE NEEDS TO BREACH AND SUSTAIN ABOVE 5477 TO 5488 IN ORDER TO MOVE UP FURTHER TO BREACH 5500 AGAIN.

MARKETS FOR MONDAY 26TH AUGUST

NIFTY SPOT SAW ITS 5TH CONSECUTIVE WEEK OF LOWER CLOSINGS AFTER MAKING A LOW OF 5254 TO CLOSE IN THE FORM OF A WEEKLY HAMMER GIVING THE BULLS SOME SIGH OF RELIEF AT LEAST THAT THE FEARFUL DOWN SWING HAS EITHER ENDED OR ABOUT TO END. CLOSURE OF SPOT NIFTY IN THE FORM OF A WEEKLY HAMMER ABOVE THE LOWER BOLLINGER BAND, 200 WEEK SMA , 200 WEEK EMA & ALSO ABOVE THE WEEKLY SUPPORT LINE AFTER BREACHING EACH OF THESE DURING THIS SINGLE  WEEK AS CAN BE SEEN IN THE WEEKLY CHART ABOVE TECHNICALLY INDICATES THAT THE DOWN SWING MIGHT BE OVER. HIGHLY OVERSOLD CONDITION OF DAILY INDICATORS AND SOME OF THE WEEKLY INDICATORS  TILT THE BALANCE IN FAVOR OF THE BULLS THAT ENCOURAGES TRADERS TO BUY THE DECLINES  & HOLD THE POSITIONS AS LONG AS SPOT NIFTY DOES NOT BREACH THE WEEKLY LOW OF 5254 , IN CASE IT IS BREACHED THEN ONE MAY AGAIN TURN HIGHLY BEARISH TO RUTHLESSLY SHORT THE MARKETS TO SEE SUB 5000 LEVELS.

A CLOSURE OF AN HOURLY CANDLE BELOW THE SPOT NIFTY LEVEL OF 5377 OR MORE IMPORTANTLY BELOW 5353 WILL BE THE EARLY SIGNAL FOR THE  BULLS TO BE CAUTIOUS ON THEIR FRESH LONG POSITIONS & TO THE BEARS TO RESUME SHORTING AGAIN. SIMILARLY ON THE HIGHER SIDE A DECISIVE BREACH OF 5505 SPOT MAY BE THE INITIAL INDICATION THAT THE BULLS ARE GATHERING MOMENTUM TOWARDS MUCH HIGHER LEVELS ALTHOUGH THE BULLS NEED TO BREACH EACH OF THE RESISTANCE LEVELS OF 5600, 5757  TO 5775 & FINALLY CLOSE ABOVE  SPOT NIFTY LEVEL OF  5808 TO CONFIDENTLY SAY THAT THE DOWN SIDE CORRECTION IS OVER TO RIDE HAPPILY DURING THE MARKET FRIENDLY MONTH OF SEPTEMBER FOR MUCH HIGHER LEVELS TOWARDS THE  23RD JULY SWING HIGH OF 6061 SPOT. A FAILURE TO BREACH ANY OF THESE RESISTANCE LEVELS WILL SEE BIG FALLS TO ENCOURAGE THE BEARS TO INDULGE IN SHORTING RAMPAGE.

IN ADDITION TO THE WEEKLY CHART ABOVE, THE DAILY CHARTS TOO LOOK PROMISING FOR THE BULLS. THE MONSTROUS BEARISH ENGULFING CANDLE OF 21ST AUGUST HAS ALMOST GOT NEUTRALIZED  BY THE TWO DAYS OF BULLISH REVERSAL CANDLES SPECIALLY THE CANDLE OF 22ND AUGUST THAT WAS ALMOST A BULLISH PIERCING LINE HAVING OPENED GAP DOWN  AND BREACHING THE LOW OF 21ST CANDLE, BUT TO RISE AND CLOSE ABOVE THE MID POINT OF BEARISH ENGULFING CANDLE OF 21ST AUGUST. BULLISH DIVERGENCES IN SLOW STOCHASTIC, MACD & MANY THER DAILY INDICATORS POINT TOWARDS THE CONTINUATION OF UP MOVE GENERATED ON THURSDAY 21ST AUGUST. HOWEVER EVEN AN INTRADAY SLIDE TO CLOSE AN HOURLY CANDLE OR EVEN A 30 MINUTE CANDLE BELOW EITHER OF 5377 OR BELOW 5353 SPOT MAY POINT TOWARDS MORE DECLINES AFTER THE SO CALLED DEAD CAT BOUNCE.

FOR INTRADAY TRADING OF NIFTY FUTURES ON MONDAY 26TH AUGUST, EVEN TOUGH THE TECHNICALS POINT TOWARDS MUCH HIGHER LEVELS, BUT EXPECT NIFTY TO BE PULLED DOWN INITIALLY OR AFTER A MILD RISE TO ADD TO THE BULL TRAP GENERATED ON END FRIDAY BY HAVING CLOSED NIFTY FUTURE AROUND 5464 VERY NEAR THE HIGH OF THE DAY OF 5468. INITIAL SUPPORT FOR NIFTY FUTURES MAY BE EXPECTED AROUND 5450 BELOW WHICH 5430 TO 5423 IS A CRITICAL SUPPORT ZONE TO ATTRACT THE BEARS TO PULL THE FUTURES DOWN TOWARDS 5412 FOR  A FIERCE BATTLE WITH THE BULLS  HERE, THAT MAY DECIDE WHETHER TO SLIDE TOWARDS SUB 5400 LEVELS TO TEST 5392 TO 5377 FOR A BOUNCE UPWARDS  AFTER THIS LEVEL  OR TO SLIDE DOWN FURTHER TOWARDS 5370 OR EVEN 5353 FUTURE LEVELS.

SIMILARLY ON THE HIGHER SIDE, IN CASE MARKETS FOLLOW THE RIGHT TECHNICALS (WHICH VERY RARELY HAPPENS IN INDIAN MARKETS) THEN EXPECT ANOTHER GAP UP ON MONDAY TO STRAIGHT OPEN ABOVE THE CRITICAL LEVEL OF  5488 THAT WAS THE HIGH OF 21ST AUGUST & THEN MOVE UP FURTHER  TO TEST HIGHER LEVELS OF 5500, 5520 & 5550 . A GOOD GAP UP OPENING AND SUSTAINING ABOVE 5500 CAN GUIDE NIFTY FUTURES TOWARDS MUCH HIGHER LEVELS NOT ONLY BY THE FLATTERY OF SHORT COVERING BUT ALSO THROUGH GENUINE BUYING THAT CAN SET THE BASE FOR A GOOD EXPIRY CLOSING TOWARDS 5600 OR HIGHER LEVELS TO NOT ONLY  BID ADIEU TO THE MARKET DROWNING MONTH OF AUGUST  BUT  ALSO WELCOME THE MARKET FRIENDLY MONTH OF SEPTEMBER FROM EARLY NEXT WEEK  STARTING  2ND SEPTEMBER ONWARDS.

MARKETS FOR FRIDAY 23RD AUGUST

NIFTY AFTER MAKING A LOW OF 5252 DISPLAYED A REMARKABLE DEAD CAT BOUNCE WHICH MAY SPILL OVER TO FRIDAY ALSO BUT BE SURE NIFTY WILL BE PULLED DOWN TOWARDS 5300 LEVELS BEFORE THE BIG BOUNCE COMES OR IT MAY BE THE INITIAL BOUNCE FOLLOWED BY THE DECLINE THAT MAY BE TERMINATED WITH ANOTHER BOUNCE TO END THE WEEK ON A MUCH BETTER NOTE. IN ANY CASE ONLY A DECISIVE BREACH AND SUSTAINING ABOVE SPOT NIFTY LEVEL OF  5502 OR FUTURE NIFTY LEVEL OF 5488 CAN SEE MASSIVE SHORT COVERING FOR MUCH HIGHER LEVELS. A FAILURE TO BREACH 5488 FUTURE & 5505 SPOT WILL SIGNAL THE BEARS TO INDULGE IN MONSTROUS SHORTING AGAIN TOWARDS 5000 NIFTY LEVELS.

FOR FRIDAY NIFTY FUTURE FINDS INITIAL RESISTANCE AROUND 5445 FOLLOWED BY 5466 & THEN 5488 TO 5495 FUTURE LEVELS. SIMILARLY A BULL TRAP GENERATED ON THURSDAY END MAY SEE NIFTY SLIDING TO FIND INITIAL SUPPORT AROUND 5370 FOLLOWED BY 5350 & THEN 5323  SUSTAINING BELOW WHICH SUB 5300 IS A CERTAINTY TO RETEST 22ND AUGUST LOWS OF 5252 BEFORE A GOOD BOUNCE.

MARKETS FOR THURSDAY 22ND AUGUST

JUST CLOSE YOUR EYES & SHORT THE MARKETS, AS LEVELS ARE NO MORE IMPORTANT & THAT ONE MUST SHORT IS MORE IMPORTANT. LOOK FOR A GOD-SENT OPPORTUNITY LIKE WEDNESDAY WHEN NIFTY WAS  TAKEN UP ABOVE 5454 INTO THE TRAPPING ZONE TOWARDS 5500, BUT ALL THOSE WHO KNEW THE ART OF SHORTING MINTED MONEY.

A BEARISH ENGULFING HAS BEEN FORMED ON WEDNESDAY & ONE SHOULD NOT TAKE CHANCES WITH THE BEARISH ENGULFING CANDLES BY PLANNING LONG TILL SUCH TIME THE HIGH OF THE ENGULFING AT 5005 IS BREACHED. SO, SHORT & ONLY SHORT NOTHING ELSE IS REQUIRED & LEVELS ARE NOT IMPORTANT ALTHOUGH YOUNG & DYNAMIC TRADERS MAY LOOK FOR AN INTRADAY BOUNCE TO INITIATE SHORTS FOR GOOD GAINS

MARKETS FOR WEDNESDAY 21ST AUGUST

NIFTY ON TUESDAY OPENED WITH A GAP DOWN AND IN THE 1ST 30 MINUTES IT MADE A LOW OF 5307. HOWEVER MARKET LIFTING NEWS, PROFIT BOOKING & END OF THE DEVASTATING FULL MOON CYCLE THAT HAD STARTED FROM 23RD JULY HIGH OF 6093 SAW THE MARKETS MAKING SUBSTANTIAL RECOVERY TO ENTER THE OPENING GAP ABOVE 5346 TO MAKE A DAY HIGH OF 5417 TO FINALLY CLOSE THE DAY AT 5401 STILL BELOW MONDAY’S CLOSING OF 5414 SPOT. ALTHOUGH SOME MORE RECOVERY MAY BE EXPECTED BUT ONE SHOULD ALSO EXPECT TUESDAYS LOWS OF 5307 WILL BE TRIED BY THE BEARS AGAIN THAT OFFERS GREAT OPPORTUNITY FOR INTRADAY TRADERS TO SHORT ON RISE TOWARDS THE CRITICAL LEVEL OF 5454 OR EVEN ABOVE IT. SPOT NIFTY LEVELS OF 5417 TO 5421 & THEN 5445 TO 5454 ARE CRITICAL RESISTANCES.


FOR INTRADAY TRADING OF NIFTY FUTURES ON WEDNESDAY, IT IS REASONABLE TO EXPECT TUESDAY’S LOWS OR ITS NEAR LEVELS TO BE RETESTED BY NIFTY TO ENCOURAGE INTRADAY BUYERS TO BUY THE DECLINES TOWARDS IT FOR A GOOD BOUNCE TO CONTEST THE BEARS WHO WILL TRY THEIR LEVEL BEST TO MOVE DOWN TOWARDS TUESDAYS LOWS OF 5306 FUTURE LEVELS. IN CASE THERE IS NO GAP UP OPENING THEN FUTURE ZONE OF 5414 TO 5420 IS THE FIRST RESISTANCE ZONE SUSTAINING ABOVE WHICH ONE MAY SEE WEAK BEARS COVERING THEIR SHORTS TO PROPEL FUTURES UPWARDS. IN CASE 5435 TO 5440 FUTURE LEVEL IS BREACHED THEN ONE SHOULD BE REASONABLY SURE TO SEE BULLS PUSHING A LITTLE HARDER TO SEE NIFTY FUTURE TESTING 5464 TO 5475 ZONE TO BRING BACK THE BEARS AGAIN TO CHASE THE BULLS AWAY.

HOWEVER WITH A BIGGER GAP UP OPENING, THINGS MAY LOOK BETTER FOR THE BULLS AS MOST OF THE WEAKER BEARS MAY START TO SHIVER TO COVER THEIR SHORTS EARLY. ON THE LOWER SIDE NIFTY FUTURE FINDS INITIAL SUPPORT AROUND 5353 BELOW WHICH BEARS WILL DOMINATE THE SCENE TO PULL NIFTY FUTURES DOWN TOWARDS 5335 FOLLOWED BY 5303 THAT MAY SEE BULLS CHARGING IN AGAIN TO SEND THE BEARS TO LOOK FOR COVER.

MARKETS FOR TUESDAY 20TH AUGUST

NIFTY HAS BREACHED 5454 AND HAS CLOSED BELOW IT AROUND 5400. HOLD ALL SHORT POSITIONS & PUTS AND USE EVERY INTRADAY RISE TO SHORT & SHORT ONLY BY HAVING A STOP LOSS ABOVE 5454. GOING LONG SHOULD ONLY BE THOUGHT IN CASE NIFTY SPOT CLOSES A 30 MINUTE CANDLE ABOVE 5454, TILL THEN EVERY RISE TOWARDS IT OR EVEN HIGHER LEVELS ARE GREAT SHORTING OPPORTUNITIES. TRADERS ITCHING TO BUY CAN SATISFY THEIR BUYING DESIRE BY BUYING 5400 OR 5300 PUTS ON ANY INTRADAY RISE FOR GREAT GAINS.

MARKETS FOR MONDAY 19TH AUGUST

NIFTY WHICH HAD SHOWN EARLY SIGNS OF RECOVERY FROM PREVIOUS THURSDAY OF 8TH AUGUST, SAW THE ENTIRE 4 DAYS OF GAINS GETTING WIPED OFF ON A SINGLE DAY ON FRIDAY 16TH AUGUST. THE MONSTROUS SLIDE OF FRIDAY 16TH AUGUST FROM ITS PREVIOUS DAY 14TH AUGUST CLOSING OF 5742 SPOT TO A FRIDAY 16TH AUGUST LOW OF 5496 TO CLOSE AT 5507 SPOT, REMINDED ONE OF THE SIMILAR FALLS WHICH ONE HAD OBSERVED DURING THE BEAR MARKET OF 2008. WELL, THE BULLS STILL HAVE NOTHING TO WORRY AT ALL AS LONG AS SPOT NIFTY DOES NOT SLIDE FURTHER TO BREACH & CLOSE BELOW THE LOWER PARALLEL CHANNEL SUPPORT LINE AS CAN BE SEEN IN THE DAILY CHART OF SPOT NIFTY ABOVE. AS THE SINGLE DAY FALL OF NEARLY 250 NIFTY & 800 SENSEX POINTS WAS BASED ON A CONFUSING & MARKET DROWNING NEWS EVENT, A COUNTER NEWS EVENT CAN ALWAYS SEE THE BEARS GETTING BADLY TRAPPED FROM AROUND THE CRITICAL SUPPORT LINE BETWEEN 5496, 5486 TO 5454 SPOT NIFTY LEVELS. HOWEVER A FURTHER SLIDE TO CLOSE BELOW THE CRITICAL SPOT NIFTY LEVEL OF 5454 WILL SEE EVERYONE TURNING BEARISH TO PULL NIFTY DOWN TOWARDS SUB 5000 LEVELS IN QUICK TIME.

TECHNICALLY, THE SINGLE DAY FALL OF SPOT NIFTY ON FRIDAY 16TH AUGUST TO MAKE A LOW OF 5496 TO CLOSE AT 5508 BELOW ITS FOUR PREVIOUS DAY’S LOWS OF 5510 WHICH WAS THE LOW OF 8TH AUGUST FROM WHERE 4 DAYS OF RISE HAD OCCURRED IS A DISTINCT SIGN OF MEGA BEARISHNESS. THE CANDLE OF 14TH AUGUST WAS A 7TH NRB CANDLE AROUND THE RESISTANCES OF CLUSTER OF 20, 50 & 200 DAYS EMA. HENCE THE BREACH OF THIS LOW OF THE 7TH NRB CANDLE AT 5690 AROUND THE DAILY PIVOT ITSELF COULD HAVE PULLED NIFTY DOWN IRRESPECTIVE OF THE ADVERSE NEWS EVENT FROM RBI. WELL THE COUNTER NEWS AFTER THE FALL MAY SEE THE MARKET MOVING UP ALTHOUGH AS OF NOW IT SEEMS THE BLACK FRIDAY’S FALL HAS BROKEN THE BACK BONE OF NIFTY & THE LAST FEW DEATH PREVENTING BREATHS STILL LEFT WITH INDIAN MARKETS WILL SEE ITS END ONCE SPOT NIFTY CLOSES BELOW 5454. THE ONLY SAVIOR FOR NIFTY MAY BE THE COUNTER STATEMENT BY THE GOVT.

FOR THE COMING WEEK ENDING 23 AUGUST, SPOT NIFTY HAS INITIAL RESISTANCE AROUND THE LEVELS 5570 , 5595 & 5606 LEVELS EACH OF WHICH MAY BE TOUGH TO CROSS DURING ACTUAL TRADING & NEEDS SOME MANIPULATED GAP UPS TO OUT-RIGHTLY BREACH ALL THE THREE TILL 5606 IN ONE GO . IN CASE NIFTY SPOT MANAGES TO BREACH AND SUSTAIN ABOVE 5606 THAN IT MAY SEND SHIVERS TO SWING SHORTERS & INTRADAY OR SHORT TERM BEARS TO INITIATE EARLY ACTION OF COVERING THEIR SHORTS. THE NEXT HURDLE THAT MAY PROJECT A STIFF RESISTANCE IS THE CRITICAL SPOT LEVEL OF 5757. A DECISIVE BREACH & SUSTAINING ABOVE 5757 MAY BE THE INITIAL INDICATION THAT THE CORRECTION IS OVER TO TRIGGER MASSIVE SHORT COVERING TO MOVE UP & BREACH 5808 TO 5858 SPOT LEVELS ABOVE THE CLUSTER OF 20, 50 & 200 DAY EMAS TO RESUME THE BULL RUN. EACH OF THESE RESISTANCES RIGHT FROM THE INITIAL ONE AT 5570 TILL 5858 WILL ENCOURAGE TRADERS TO INITIATE SHORT POSITIONS BY HAVING STOP LOSSES SOME POINTS ABOVE EACH OF THESE RESISTANCES TO REVERSE FOR GOING LONG.

SIMILARLY ON THE LOWER SIDE, A BREACH OF FRIDAY’S LOWS OF 5496 SPOT WILL ENCOURAGE SHORTES TO INCREASE THEIR SHORT POSITIONS TO SEE DOWN SIDE LEVELS OF 5486, 5477 & 5454 IN QUICK TIME. BELOW THE LEVEL OF 5454 SPOT NIFTY WILL INDUCE MEGA SHORTS TO SEE 5252 FOLLOWED BY 5000 LEVELS TO THREATEN 2ND WAVE LOW OF 4531 DURING THE DEVASTATING MONTH OF OCTOBER. SO, THE SITUATION IS SUCH THAT UNLESS THERE ARE MARKET LIFTING ACTION BY THE GOVT DURING THE COMING WEEK, ONE SHOULD BE MENTALLY PREPARED TO SEE 5000 BEING TESTED BEFORE THE START OF OCTOBER MONTH. USUALLY THE DEVASTATING MONTHS OF MAY, AUGUST & OCTOBER BESIDES OFFERING GREAT MOTIVATION TO THE YOUNG AND DYNAMIC TRADERS TO LEARN THE ART OF SHORTING, THESE MONTHS ALSO INCREASE THE BANK BALANCES SEASONED SHORTERS BY MANY FOLDS.

FOR INTRADAY TRADING OF NIFTY FUTURES ON MONDAY 19TH AUGUST, NIFTY FUTURE HAS TO SUSTAIN ABOVE 5540 TO 5550 IN ORDER TO INDUCE SOME SHORT COVERING TO PROPEL THE FUTURE TOWARDS 5566 ABOVE WHICH 5590 IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. SUSTAINING ABOVE 5590 TO 5606 OR 5610 FUTURE LEVELS WILL INDUCE THE BEARS TO PRESS THE PANIC BUTTON TO COVER THEIR SHORTS. A RESOUNDING ANNOUNCEMENT BY THE GOVT TO NEGATE WHAT WAS ANNOUNCED TO PULL THE MARKETS DOWN ON FRIDAY CAN SEE A BIG GAP UP OPENING FOLLOWED BY MASSIVE SHORT COVERING TO PROPEL NIFTY FUTURES TOWARDS MUCH HIGHER LEVELS. AS THE EARLY AUGUST MEGA PREMIUM OF NIFTY FUTURES TO SPOT HAS BEEN COMPLETELY NULLIFIED, SLIGHTEST AMOUNT OF GOOD NEWS WILL LIFT NIFTY FUTURES UP TO REGENERATE THE PREMIUM. SIMILARLY ON THE LOWER SIDE, A DECISIVE BREACH OF FRIDAY’S LOWS OF 5494 CAN SEE THE ONSET OF FRESH BEARISHNESS AND BELOW 5474 NIFTY CAN CRASH TOWARDS 5454 FOLLOWED BY 5424 FUTURE LEVELS IN LIGHTENING SPEED TO STRAIGHT AIM FOR 5252 FOLLOWED BY SUB 5000 IN NEXT FEW DAYS.

MARKETS FOR TUESDAY 13TH AUGUST

 NIFTY AFTER THE BULLISH ENGULFING OF THURSDAY, CLOSED  MONDAY WITH A DOJI CANDLE THAT MAY GIVE ENOUGH AMMUNITION IN THE HANDS OF BEARS TO SHORT THE MARKETS IN CASE NIFTY SPOT FAILS TO BREACH  MONDAY’S DOJI HIGH OF 5644  LEVELS. SIMILARLY A DECISIVE BREACH OF THE SAME DOJI LOW OF 5555 SPOT MAY CONVERT THE BULLS INTO BEARS TO PULL NIFTY FURTHER DOWN. WELL FULL ADVANTAGE OF THIS DOJI GAME WILL BE TAKEN BY SGX PLOTTERS TO PULL SGX NIFTY DOWN INITIALLY TO TRIGGER A BEARISH SENTIMENT AT THE START BUT ONLY TO PULL NIFTY UP AGAIN UPWARDS TO BREACH & RETEST MONDAY’S HIGHS.

SO MONDAY’S  LAST SESSION PULL DOWN OF NIFTY MAY CONTINUE ON TUESDAY ALSO TO BE FOLLOWED BY A PULL UP TOWARDS MONDAYS HIGHS IN CASE THE HIGH IS NOT TESTED INITIALLY. ALTHOUGH 13TH AUGUST LOOKS TO BE A DISASTROUS DATE  YET THE TECHNICALS DO NOT LOOK  THAT DANGEROUS FOR THE MARKETS. AT THE WORST CASE ANOTHER DOJI OR MILD FLAT DAY MAY BE SEEN FOR TUESDAY ENCOURAGING ONE TO PLAY INTRADAY BY SHORTING  THE RISE TOWARDS 5665 SPOT  AND BUYING THE SLIDE IF AT ALL IT COMES TOWARDS 5550 SPOT.

NIFTY FUTURES WILL GAIN STRENGTH IN CASE IT IS ALLOWED TO BREACH & SUSTAIN ABOVE 5636  & THEN ABOVE 5650 TO EYE FOR THE 5670 FUTURE LEVELS. SIMILARLY ON THE LOWER SIDE , NIFTY FUTURES MAY TURN WEAK BELOW 5580 O TEST 5565 FOLLOWED BY 5550 TO 5545 FUTURE ZONE

MARKETS FOR WEDNESDAY 07

AUGUST NIFTY SPOT HAS BREACHED THE 24TH JUNE SWING LOW OF 5566 BY MAKING A LOW OF 5521 AND HAS ALSO CLOSED AT 5542 BELOW THE SWING LOW F 5566 SPOT. NOW ONE SHOULD BE REASONABLY SURE TO SEE ANOTHER DAY OR TWO OF FALLS TO TEST 10TH APRIL SWING LOW OF 5477 & A DECISIVE CLOSE BELOW IT WILL SPELL THE END GAME FOR THE BULLS THAT MAY DRIVE DOWN SPOT NIFTY TOWARDS SUB 5200 LEVELS DURING THE MARKET DROWNING MONTH OF AUGUST ITSELF. SO KEEP A STOP LOSS ABOVE THE SPOT NIFTY LEVEL OF 5762 WHICH IS THE HIGH OF THE INSIDE BAR SET UP FORMED BY PRICE ACTION OF 2ND & 5TH AUGUST. SAFE TRADERS MAY EVEN KEEP STOP LOSS ABOVE THE 7TH NRB CANDLE OF 5TH AUGUST AT 5721 AND USE EVERY RISE TOWARDS 5700 OR EVEN TOWARDS 5656 SPOT LEVELS TO TRADE SHORT & HOLD THE SHORTS TILL STOPPED OUT.

WHENEVER NIFTY FUTURE ENJOYS A GOOD PREMIUM TO SPOT NIFTY, NIFTY WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TILL SUCH TIME THE PREMIUM IS CONVERTED IN TO A DISCOUNT. PRESENTLY FOR LAST 10 DAYS SINCE JULY EXPIRY, NIFTY AUGUST FUTURES ENJOYS THE HEAVY PREMIUM TO THE SPOT & SEE HOW  BOTH THE INDICES CONTINUE TO SLIDE. THE GOLDEN CROSS BETWEEN 50 DMA & 200 DMA HAS BEEN TRIGGERED AROUND THE CRITICAL LEVEL OF 5848 & UNLESS THERE IS IMMEDIATE ACTION BY THE BULLS TO LIFT THE MARKETS UP, THERE IS EVERY POSSIBILITY OF NIFTY BREACHING 5477, 5225 TO SLIDE FURTHER TO BREACH 5000 MARK EVEN DURING THE MARKET FRIENDLY MONTH OF SEPTEMBER.

MARKETS FOR TUESDAY 06 AUGUST

NIFTY AFTER 8 DAYS OF CONSECUTIVE FALLS GOT A RESPITE AS BEARS ALLOWED THE BULLS  TO MAKE A HIGHER LOW AT 5661 COMPARED TO THE LOW OF  5649 MADE ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER THE HIGH MADE ON MONDAY AT 5721 WAS MUCH LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS HIGH OF 5761 OF FRIDAY, BUT  THE ONLY CONSOLATION FOR THE BULLS BEING THEY COULD MANAGE A MILDER HIGHER  CLOSING AT 5685 COMPARED TO THE LOWER CLOSING OF 5678 ON FRIDAY. THIS MINISCULE HIGHER CLOSING OF 7 POINTS HAS INFUSED A LOT OF SPIRITS AMONGST THE BULLS TO AIM FOR SOME MORE HIGHER LEVELS IN NEXT FEW DAYS BUT ONLY TO GIVE UP THE ENTIRE GAINS TO THE BEARS IN A SINGLE DAY AFTER A FEW DAYS.

AS LONG AS SPOT NIFTY SUSTAINS BELOW 5808 IT WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN WEAK DURING THE CURRENT WEEK AND FOR TUESDAY AS LONG AS SPOT NIFTY SUSTAINS BELOW 5720 & FAILS TO CLOSE A 30 MINUTE CANDLE ABOVE 5720, EVERY INTRADAY RISE OF SPOT NIFTY WILL MEET WILL RUTHLESS SHORTING. A CLOSURE OF A 30 MINUTE CANDLE ABOVE 5720 SPOT WILL TRIGGER MASSIVE SHORT COVERING TO PROPEL SPOT NIFTY TOWARDS MUCH HIGHER LEVELS. ON A FLAT TO MILDER  SESSION ON TUESDAY, IN CASE OF A RISE OF SPOT NIFTY TOWARDS 5720 CAN BE USED TO TRADE SHORT WITH A SPOT LOSS ABOVE THIS  LEVEL OF 5720 TO 5730 TO REVERSE FOR LONGS.

FOR INTRADAY TRADING OF NIFTY FUTURES ON TUESDAY, NIFTY FUTURES WHICH HAD CLOSED 5720 NEEDS TO BREACH AND SUSTAIN ABOVE 5762  BY HAVING A 30 MINUTE CANDLE CLOSE ABOVE IT TO MOVE UP TOWARDS MUCH HIGHER LEVELS ALTHOUGH A BREACH OF 5740 TO 5745 FUTURE ZONE MAY SEE INITIAL BOUT OF SHORT COVERING.  SUSTAINING ABOVE 5762 CAN SEE NIFTY FUTURE MOVING UP TOWARDS THE NEXT LEVEL OF 5777 TO 5780 FOLLOWED BY 5790 OR EVEN 5800 LEVELS. HOWEVER A FAILURE TO BREACH AND SUSTAIN ABOVE 5762 OR EVEN INITIAL ZONE OF 5740 TO 5745 MAY SEE MASSIVE SHORTING ACTION BY INTRADAY TRADERS  TO SEE NIFTY FUTURES SLIDING TOWARDS 5705 INITIALLY FOLLOWED BY THE CRITICAL 5695 TO 5690 ZONE. A DECISIVE SLIDE BELOW 5690 MAY SEE  5680 FOLLOWED BY EVEN 5665 TO 5660 FUTURE ZONE .

MARKETS FOR MONDAY 05 AUGUST

NIFTY PRESENTLY IS UNDER THE GRIP OF POWERFUL BEARS AND EVERY INTRADAY RISE MAY SEE RUTHLESS SHORTING AS LONG AS SPOT NIFTY CONTINUES TO TRADE BELOW 5808. A CLOSE ABOVE 5808 CAN ONLY BRING SOME HOPES FOR THE BULLS THAT PERHAPS THE  DOWN SWING HAS TEMPORARILY HALTED IF NOT ENTIRELY.

WITH THE WEEKLY TECHNICAL INDICATORS STILL LOOKING WEAK,  THE OVERSOLD LOOKING DAILY INDICATORS MAY BOW DOWN TO THE WEEKLY INDICATORS WHICH MAY RESULT IN  CONTINUATION OF THE DOWN SWING AFTER A DAY OR TWO OF MILD OR FLAT DAYS & IN CASE SPOT NIFTY BREACHES  & MORE IMPORTANTLY CLOSES BELOW  24TH JUNE LOWS OF 5566 THEN BE ABSOLUTELY SURE THAT NIFTY SPOT NOT ONLY WILL TEST BUT ALSO WILL BREACH 10TH APRIL LOWS OF 5477 FOR MUCH BIGGER DOWN SIDE LEVEL DURING THE MARKET DROWNING MONTH OF AUGUST. THE NEW MOON CYCLE STARTING FROM 6TH AUGUST WILL GIVE A CLEAR HINT AS TO WHICH WAY INDIAN MARKETS WILL MOVE EVEN THOUGH WEEKLY TECHNICAL INDICATORS CLEARLY POINT TOWARDS A BIGGER SLIDE. FOR GOING UP , NIFTY SPOT MUST BREACH AND CLOSE ABOVE 5808 ON ANY OF THE COMING DAYS & FOR BIGGER SLIDE SPOT NIFTY MUST BREACH AND CLOSE BELOW 5566.

FOR INTRADAY TRADING OF NIFTY FUTURES ON MONDAY 5TH AUGUST, ONE SHOULD EXPECT A RETRACEMENT BOUNCE AFTER 8TH CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF FALLS. NIFTY FUTURES WHICH HAD CLOSED AT 5700 ON FRIDAYS NEEDS TO SUSTAIN ABOVE FRIDAY’S LOWS OF 5680 TO 5675 FUTURE ZONE IN ORDER TO SURVIVE ANOTHER DAY OF BEAR ONSLAUGHT. IF NIFTY FUTURES FAILS TO SUSTAIN ABOVE 5675 THEN IT CAN SLIDE TOWARDS  5660 FOLLOWED BY 5640 TO EVEN THREATEN 5600 IN A DAY OR TWO. SIMILARLY ON THE HIGHER SIDE A GOOD GAP UP OPENING BUT MAINTAINING THE GAP & SUSTAINING ABOVE IT CAN SEE NIFTY FUTURES MOVING UP TOWARDS  5725  FOLLOWED BY 5740 ABOVE WHICH EVEN 5760 FUTURE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE. IN CASE OF BIGGER UP MOVE THE INITIAL GAP UP OPENING HAS TO BE ABOVE 5725 AND NIFTY FUTURES MUST SUSTAIN ABOVE IT TO EVEN SEE HIGHER LEVELS OF  5775 TO 5790 LEVELS TO BE WELCOMED BY THE NEW MOON STARTING FROM TUESDAY 6TH AUGUST.

WEEKLY ANALYSIS FOR WEEK ENDING 2ND AUG

SPOT NIFTY CLOSED THE WEAK AROUND 5886 EXACTLY AT 20 WEEK EMA & 34 WEEK SMA, AFTER BOUNCING OFF FROM THE  FRIDAY’S WEEKLY LOW OF 5869 THAT TOO EXACTLY FROM THE 20 WEEK SMA  WHICH TOO WAS AT THE WEEKLY PIVOT.  ALTHOUGH AFTER THREE DAYS OF SAVAGE FALLS FROM THE JULY MONTH  FULL MOON LUNAR CYCLE HIGH OF 6093 REACHED JUST A DAY AFTER THE FULL MOON OF 22ND JULY,  NIFTY NOW  CERTAINLY LOOKS FOR A RESPITE, BUT THE PRICE ACTION OF THE DAILY AS WELL AS THE WEEKLY CHARTS MAY ENCOURAGE BEARS TO HOLD THE TAILS OF THE BULLS, WHIP THEM  LEFT, RIGHT & CENTER TO CHASE THEM AWAY EVERY TIME THE BULLS ATTEMPT TO ENCROACH BEARS 40 POINT SPOT NIFTY ZONE BETWEEN 5960 TO 6000. WELL, THE BULLS NEED STEROID POWER FROM EXTERNAL SOURCES TO BREACH THE CRITICAL 5960 TO 6000 SPOT NIFTY ZONE & MORE IMPORTANTLY SUSTAIN ABOVE IT IN ORDER TO SURVIVE MARKET DROWNING MONTH OF AUGUST AFTER THE RBI GOVERNOR’S AS USUAL MARKET DROWNING ANNOUNCEMENT SCHEDULED FOR 31ST JULY.

IN THE WEEKLY CHARTS OF SPOT NIFTY, THE CANDLE OF LAST WEEK  HAS MADE AN OUT SIDE CANDLE SET UP WITH ITS PREVIOUS WEEK’S CANDLE OF WEEK ENDING 19TH JUNE. THE HIGH & LOW OF THE MOTHER CANDLE OF LAST WEEK AT  6093 & 5869 WILL PLAY A CRITICAL ROLE  IN DECIDING THE FATE OF THE COMING FEW WEEKS STARTING FROM MONDAY 29TH JULY. A DECISIVE BREACH AND CLOSE BELOW THE SPOT NIFTY LEVEL OF 5868 EVEN ON A DAILY BASIS IS GOOD ENOUGH TO ASSUME THAT THIS YEAR’S AUGUST MONTH IS GOING TO BE NO BETTER THAN EVEN ITS ALTERNATE YEAR AUGUST OF 2011 OR AT THE BEST THIS AUGUST MAY BE SIMILAR TO THE TYPICAL FLAT, DOJI CANDLE AUGUST MONTHS OF 2012, 2010,2009 & 2008. OPTION WRITERS MAY HAVE A DREAM MONTH OF AUGUST BY WRITING BOTH CALLS OF 6200 & 6100 ON RISE OF NIFTY  AND WRITE PUTS OF 5700 OR LOWER ON FALL OF NIFTY FOR GOOD GAINS DURING THE AUGUST EXPIRY ALTHOUGH A MONTHLY CLOSE MUCH BELOW THE CRITICAL LEVEL OF 5868 SPOT MAY TILT THE BALANCE HEAVILY IN FAVOR OF CALL WRITERS THAT SHOULD MAKE THE PUT WRITERS HIGHLY CAUTIOUS.

IN THE DAILY CHARTS, SPOT NIFTY’S FRIDAY CLOSING AROUND 5886 BELOW THE CROSS OVER OF BOTH 20 & 50 DMA SENDS DANGER SIGNALS FOR THE BULLS TO BE PREPARED NOT TO ALLOW  NIFTY SPOT TO CLOSE BELOW  5858 EVEN TOUGH INTRADAY FALLS CAN TAKE IT DOWN TOWARDS 5848  AROUND THE 200 DMA & ALSO 34 DMA  JUST BELOW THE DAILY PIVOT AT 5868 TO WEED OUT WEAKER BULLS & ALSO ENCOURAGE WEAKER BEARS TO BOOK SOME PROFIT.  WELL, IF THE BULLS SURRENDER THESE CRITICAL SPOT LEVELS BETWEEN 5868 TO 5844 THEN THEY HAVE TO SEEK THE HELP OF RESTING BULLS IN BATCHES INITIALLY AROUND THE 34 WEEK EMA AREA OF  5828  & NEXT AROUND 200 DAY EMA AREA OF 5790 WHICH IS JUST A STONES THROW FROM THE BIGGER DITCH AROUND 5760. THE 7TH NRB CANDLE HIGH OF 23RD JULY AT 6093 SPOT WAS A GREAT SWING HIGH FOR SWING SHORTERS TO HOLD THE SHORTS TILL THIS SWING HIGH OF 6093 IS STOPPED OUT. DAILY SUPPORTS & RESISTANCES FOR SPOT NIFTY ARE MENTIONED ON THE TWO HOURLY CHART OF NIFTY ABOVE, A DECISIVE BREACH OF EACH SUPPORT OR RESISTANCE IS LIKELY TO SEE THE NEXT LEVEL.

MARKETS FOR THURSDAY 25 JULY

NIFTY FUTURES OF AUGUST MONTH AT 45  POINTS PREMIUM IS HIGHLY VULNERABLE FOR FURTHER FALLS THAT WILL ENCOURAGE TRADERS LOOK FOR AN INTRADAY RISE OF SPOT NIFTY TOWARDS 6030 OR 6050 TO INITIATE SHORT POSITIONS IN AUGUST FUTURES. AS USUAL EXPIRY DAY OBEYS NO RULES & TECHNICALS. BULLS SHOULD CONSIDER VERY LUCKY IF NIFTY HAS THE EXPIRY CLOSING MUCH ABOVE 6000 & AT THE BEST ONE SHOULD NOT EXPECT ANYTHING MORE THAN 6060 FOR SPOT NIFTY . THERE IS M0RE LIKELY HOOD OF SEEING & HAVING THE EXPIRY CLOSING AROUND 5959 OR 5950 SPOT LEVELS.

INTRADAY TRADERS MAY SHORT NIFTY FUTURES IN CASE SPOT NIFTY FAILS TO BREACH AND SUSTAIN ABOVE 6020 TO 6025 SPOT ZONE  ABOVE WHICH ONE MAY EXPECT SHORT COVERING TO TAKE NIFTY SPOT TOWARDS  6030 TO 6035 ZONE FOLLOWED BY 6055 TO 6060 SPOT ZONE. SIMILARLY ON THE LOWER SIDE INCASE SPOT NIFTY CAN NOT BREACH THE INITIAL RESISTANCE OF 606020 TO 6025 THEN EXPECT BEARS TO AGAIN TAKE CONTROL OF THE SITUATION TO SEE WEDNESDAY’S LOWS OF 5962 SPOT BEING BREACHED TO SLIDE TOWARDS 5949 TO 5944 SPOT ZONE BELOW WHICH EVEN 5930 TO 5925 CAN BE TESTED THAT MAY FORCE THE BULLS TO THROW WHATEVER THEY HAVE TO SLIDE TOWARDS SUB 5900 TO HAVE AN EXPIRY CLOSING AROUND 5800. IN SPOT NIFTY 20 DAY SMA  HAD MOVED UP TO TOUCH 50 DAY SMA WHICH WAS TO BE A BULLISH SIGNAL  THAT MAY NOT BE ALLOWED  TO HAPPEN.

MARKETS FOR WEDNESDAY 24 JULY

NIFTY FUTURES OPENED ABOVE THE CHINA WALL LEVEL OF 6070 TO 6074 AND THE MOMENT IT REACHED THE GIVEN FUTURES LEVEL OF 6080   INTRADAY BUYING COUPLED WITH SHORT COVERING STARTED THAT PROPELLED NIFTY TO A DAY HIGH OF 6107 BUT ONLY TO FALL BY THE END OF DAY TO  CLOSE AROUND 6086 FUTURE LEVELS AFTER MAKING AN INTRADAY LOW  BETWEEN 6070 TO 6075 FUTURE LEVELS. FOR  WEDNESDAY 24TH JULY NIFTY FUTURE FACES THE VULNERABILITY OF A SLIDE TOWARDS TUESDAY’S LOWS OF 6070 INITIALLY, HOWEVER AS LONG AS 6065 TO 6060 FUTURE LEVELS IS HELD BY THE BULLS  NIFTY WILL AGAIN TRY TO MOVE UP TO RETEST TUESDAY’S HIGH OF 6107 .

FOR INTRADAY TRADING OF NIFTY FUTURES, OTHER THAN THE INITIAL ERRATIC MINUTES,  IN CASE 6065 TO 6060 DOES NOT HOLD THEN BEARS WILL BE IN FULL FORCE TO PULL NIFTY DOWN TOWARDS 6050, 6040 OR EVEN 6020 TO HAND IT OVER TO THE BULLS AGAIN FROM HERE ON . HOWEVER IN CASE 6065 TO 6060 HOLDS THEN NIFTY FUTURE MAY MOVE UP TO THE BEARS’ SHORT COVERING POINT OF 6112 TO 6115 FUTURE ZONE  AND IF 6112 TO 6115 IS DECISIVELY BREACHED  THEN IT  MAY SEE NIFTY FUTURES MOVING UP TOWARDS  6125 TO 6133 ZONE FOLLOWED BY EVEN 6150 FUTURE LEVELS TO GIVE A SLEEPLESS NIGHT TO THE SHORT POSITION HOLDERS WHO MAY WORRY AS TO WHAT WILL HAPPEN ON THE EXPIRY DAY. SIMILARLY A SLIDE BELOW 6020 FUTURE LEVELS MAY KEEP THE BULLS ON TENDER HOOKS FEARING FURTHER FALLS  ON THE EXPIRY DAY. AUGUST FUTURES WITH HIGH PREMIUM TO JULY ALTHOUGH IS A SIGN OF BULLISHNESS FOR NOVICE TRADERS, YET IT IS HIGHLY DECEPTIVE THAT TOO DURING THE  DEVASTATING MONTH OF AUGUST .

MARKETS FOR MONDAY 22 JULY

DURING THE WEEK ENDING 19TH JULY,  SPOT NIFTY CLOSED AT 6029 ABOVE IT’S PREVIOUS WEEK ENDING 12TH JULY CLOSING OF 6009. THIS WEEKS CLOSING AT 6029 IS ALSO ABOVE THE HIGH OF LAST WEEK’S HIGH OF 6019.  ALTHOUGH TECHNICALLY IT LOOKS LIKE A HIGHLY BULLISH SIGNAL FOR THE COMING WEEK, YET THE EXPIRY CONSIDERATIONS ON THURSDAY 25TH JULY POSSIBLY  MAY DAMPEN THE MEGA BULLISH SPIRIT OF THE BULLS WHO HAVING TAKEN NIFTY SPOT UP FROM MONDAY’S RBI TRIGGERED LOWS OF 5911 TO FRIDAY’S HIGH OF 6066, MAY LIKE TO TAKE A PAUSE TO INDUCE THE BEARS TO INITIATE  SOME SHORTING ACTION,  ONLY TO BE TRAPPED LATER  AFTER THE PAUSE IS OVER, THAT WILL FORCE THE BEARS TO AGAIN INDULGE IN SHORT COVERING TO TAKE THE MARKETS UP.

ALTHOUGH THE DAILY INDICATORS ARE SAFELY SAILING IN THE OVERBOUGHT ZONE, BUT THE HIGHLY BULLISH LOOKING WEEKLY INDICATORS MAY FORCE THE DAILY INDICATORS TO SLEEP IN THE OVERBOUGHT ZONE . ONLY THE HIGHLY OVERBOUGHT LOOKING INTRADAY INDICATORS MAY ATTRACT INTRADAY BEARS TO TAKE FULL ADVANTAGE OF IT BUT ONLY TO BE DISAPPOINTED TO  BURN THEIR SHORTENED  FINGERS  LATER IF THEY DON’T BOOK THEIR PROFIT IN TIME. FOR MONDAY’S INTRADAY TRADING OF NIFTY FUTURES, EXPECT DAMPNESS IN INDIAN MARKETS TO BE WEAKENED BY WELL COORDINATED SGX NIFTY AND SOME ASIAN MARKETS. CHINESE MARKETS AS USUAL MAY BE FORCED TO LOOK WEAK TO INDUCE DAMPENED SPIRIT FOR SOME OF ASIAN MARKETS ON MONDAY MORNING. EVEN IF THERE IS AN INITIAL RISE IN INDIAN MARKETS IT WILL MEET WITH HEAVY SHORTING IN CASE NIFTY FUTURE  AFTER APPROACHING TOWARDS 6060 OR TOWARDS FRIDAY’S HIGHS OF  6074 FALTERS IN BETWEEN & FAILS TO BREACH IT. IN CASE IT FALLS INITIALLY THEN THE CRITICAL  SUPPORT AROUND 6010 TO 6000 MUST BE HELD BY TO BULLS  TO AVOID SEEING A MASSACRE. ALTHOUGH SUSTAINING BELOW THE FUTURE LEVEL OF 6030 MAY BE THE GREEN SIGNAL FOR INTRADAY BEARS TO START THEIR SHORTING ACTION.

FOR MONDAY’S INTRADAY TRADING PURPOSE, NIFTY FUTURES FAILING TO SUSTAIN ABOVE 6030 CAN BE SUITABLY USED TO TRADE SHORT  FOR QUICK GAINS TOWARDS 6010 TO 6005 . IN CASE BULLS SHOW LETHARGY AROUND 6000 FUTURE LEVELS THEN BEARS CAN EVEN PULL NIFTY FURTHER DOWN TOWARDS 5989 TO 5985 ZONE BELOW WHICH 5970 TO 5966 IS A CERTAINTY. HOWEVER IN CASE 6030 FUTURE LEVEL  HOLDS AFTER THE INITIAL SGX INDUCED JERKY DOWN SWING BELOW IT, THEN EXPECT NIFTY FUTURE TO MOVE UP TOWARDS TESTING FRIDAYS INTRADAY HIGH OF 6074, ALTHOUGH BULLS NEED SUMO POWER WITH STEROID INJECTIONS TO REACH AND BREACH FRIDAYS HIGHS. EVEN AN APPROACH TOWARDS 6060 TO 6065 MAY ENCOUNTER STIFF OPPOSITION FROM HUNGRY BEARS. SUSTAINING ABOVE THE 6060 TO 6065 FUTURE ZONE MAY SEE FIRST SIGN OF WEAKNESS AMONGST THE  DISAPPOINTED  BEARS WHO MAY  INDULGE IN SHORT COVERING THAT MAY PROPEL NIFTY FUTURES TOWARDS FRIDAY’S HIGHS OF 6074. SUSTAINING ABOVE 6080 TO 6085 FUTURE ZONE MAY BRING IN THE 2ND BOUT OF SHORT COVERING TO EVEN SEE 6100 OR HIGHER FUTURE LEVELS TO PROVE THAT AT LEAST THE FULL MOON DAY WAS LUCKY FOR THE BULLS.

MARKETS FOR FRIDAY 19 JULY

NIFTY DURING THE WEEK SO FAR HAS MOVED EXACTLY AS PER THE CHART GIVEN ABOVE. AS WAS EXPLAINED FOR 18TH JULY, THE MOMENT NIFTY FUTURE BREACHED THE CRITICAL ZONE OF 5995 TO 6000 IT  SHOT UP LIKE A TRACER BULLET SURPASSING ALL OBSTACLES. AS WAS EXPECTED,  MASSIVE SHORT COVERING ALSO PLAYED A MAJOR ROLE IN SEEING NIFTY FUTURES TESTING  AN INTRADAY HIGH OF  6065 TO CLOSE NEAR THE HIGH OF THE DAY AROUND 6059. ALTHOUGH TECHNICALLY THE MARKETS LOOK ULTRA BULLISH FOR MUCH HIGHER LEVELS TOWARDS 6100+ FUTURE LEVELS ON FRIDAY, BUT REMEMBERING THE PAST PERFORMANCE OF NIFTY ON SIMILAR DAYS,  ONE CAN NOT RULE OUT AN IDEAL BULL TRAP HAVING BEEN SET UP FOR THE WEAKER HANDS WHO HAVE CARRIED HEAVY LONG POSITIONS. ALSO  BEING THE END OF THE WEEK , IT’S CONSIDERATIONS WILL ALSO THROW IT’S WEIGHT ON THE HIGHLY BULLISH LOOKING NIFTY FOR FRIDAY.  LAST FRIDAY NIFTY FUTURE HAD CLOSED AT 6020 AT THE HIGHEST POINT OF THE WEEK AND SPOT NIFTY HAD CLOSED AT 6009. A CLOSURE  OF NIFTY FUTURE ABOVE LAST WEEKS HIGH OF 6020 & SPOT NIFTY ABOVE LAST WEEK’S HIGH OF 6019  WILL EMPOWER THE BULLS WITH  MISSILE POWER NEXT WEEK.

INTERESTINGLY, SPOT NIFTY HAS CLOSED EXACTLY AT 6038 AFTER MAKING A HIGH OF 6051. ON MONDAY 15TH JULY, NIFTY SPOT HAD MADE THE DAY HIGH OF 6038 AND NIFTY SPOT ON THURSDAY HAS MADE A HIGHER HIGH FOR THE WEEK AND HAS CLOSED EXACTLY AT  MONDAY’S HIGH OF 6038 SPOT THAT THROWS OPEN GREAT OPPORTUNITY FOR THE BULLS TO PRESS ON REGARDLESS TOWARDS MUCH HIGHER LEVELS TO  CLOSE ABOVE 6038 SPOT, IN ORDER TO SEE THE COMING WEEK AT MUCH HIGHER LEVELS.  HOWEVER SHOULD THE BULLS FAIL OR FALTER IN  CONTINUING  WITH THE UP MOVE THEN THE BEARS WHO HAVE BEEN MERCILESSLY HAMMERED OUT OF SHAPE WILL SHOW THE POWER OF THEIR VENOM ON FRIDAY TO END THE WEEK ON A MODERATE NOTE. THE CANDLE OF SPOT NIFTY ON WEDNESDAY 17TH JULY WAS A PERFECT DOJI  WITH A HIGH OF 5989 & CLOSED ABOVE THE DAILY PIVOT. THE MEGA BULLISH CANDLE OF THURSDAY 18TH JULY’S  CLOSING AT 6038 THAT TOO HIGH  ABOVE THE DOJI OF 17TH JULY & ABOVE THE DAILY PIVOT IS TECHNICALLY ANOTHER STRONG SIGNAL FOR THE BULLS TO TAKE FULL ADVANTAGE OF ON FRIDAY.

FOR INTRADAY TRADING OF NIFTY FUTURES ON FRIDAY, IT NEEDS TO SUSTAIN ABOVE 6030 IN CASE OF AN INTRADAY DECLINE. FAILING TO HOLD ABOVE 6030 FUTURE LEVELS MAY EMPOWER THE BEARS TO TAKE REVENGE TO PULL NIFTY FUTURES DOWN TOWARDS 6015 OR EVEN TOWARDS SUB 6000 LEVELS TO TEST 5989. SIMILARLY ON THE HIGHER SIDE NIFTY FUTURES STAYING ABOVE THE CRITICAL LEVEL OF 6087 CAN PROPEL IT TOWARDS 6100+ TO 6105  LEVELS  INITIALLY, SUSTAIN ABOVE WHICH THE FINAL BOUT OF SHORT COVERING MAY SEE NIFTY FUTURES RIDING QUICKLY TOWARDS 6130 FUTURE LEVELS AROUND WHICH THE BULLS MAY DECIDE TO BOOK SOME PROFITS TO ENJOY THE WEEKEND. FAILURE TO TAKE NIFTY FUTURES ABOVE 6088  & FAILING TO SUSTAIN ABOVE IT MAY SEE THE BEARS COMING BACK WITH FULL VIGOR  TO SHORT OUT THE BULLS. OTHER THAN THE LIKELY BULL TRAP SET UP  OR SOME WELL COORDINATED & CAREFULLY  PLANTED MARKET BREAKING NEWS EVENTS, THE MARKETS TECHNICALLY LOOK EXTREMELY BULLISH FOR MUCH HIGHER LEVELS DURING THE REMAINING DAYS OF THE MARKET FRIENDLY MONTH OF JULY.

MARKETS FOR THURSDAY 18 JULY

NIFTY FUTURES AFTER THE INITIAL RISE FAILED TO BREACH THE GIVEN LEVEL OF 6006 THAT SAW MASSIVE SHORTING FROM AROUND DAY’S HIGH OF 5998 WHICH PULLED NIFTY DOWN TOWARDS   5944 FOLLOWED BY 5934 TO 5928 TO BOUNCE UP AGAIN TO CLOSE FLAT. ON THURSDAY ALSO EXPECT SIMILAR MOVEMENT IN NIFTY WITH A FLATTISH BIAS.

 IN CASE OF AN INTRADAY DOWN SWING, AS LONG AS 5940 OR MORE IMPORTANTLY 5930 HOLDS THERE IS EVERY POSSIBILITY OF A GOOD BOUNCE. A FAILURE ON THE PART OF BULLS TO PROTECT 5930 CAN SEE FURTHER SLIDE TOWARDS 5913 FOLLOWED BY EVEN 5898 FUTURE LEVELS. SIMILARLY ON THE HIGHER SIDE A DECISIVE BREACH OF 5995 TO 6000 FUTURE LEVELS SHOULD BE DECISIVELY BREACHED  FOR FURTHER UP MOVE TOWARDS 6024 FOLLOWED BY 6040 FUTURE LEVELS.

MARKETS FOR WEDNESDAY 17 JULY

NIFTY  AS PER EXPECTATION TOOK A WELL DESERVED PAUSE AND ANOTHER DAY OF PAUSE IN THE FORM OF A DECLINE TO RETEST TUESDAY’S LOWS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. THE INTERESTING FEATURE OF THIS WEEK’S TRADING IS  THAT NIFTY FUTURE WHICH WAS AT DISCOUNT TO NIFTY SPOT HAS GOT A PREMIUM TO NIFTY SPOT DURING THE COURSE OF THE BIG FALL OF TUESDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY’S TRADING OF NIFTY FUTURES THAT HAS CLOSED AROUND 5979 ON TUESDAY THAT TOO AROUND THE HIGHEST POINT OF THE DAY, ONE CAN TRADE SHORT IN CASE NIFTY FUTURE  MOVES UP INITIALLY  BUT ONLY IF FAILS TO BREACH AND MORE IMPORTANTLY SUSTAIN ABOVE 6006 TO 6012 LEVELS. 30 MINUTE PARSAR RUNS AROUND 6016 TO 6020 & IF NIFTY FUTURE MANAGES TO BREACH IT THEN THERE MAY BE MASSIVE SHORT COVERING TO CLOSE THE ENTIRE OPENING GAP OF TUESDAY TILL 6030 FUTURE LEVELS THAT MAY CONFIRM THAT THE PAUSE IS OVER TO RESUME THE UP MOVE.

HOWEVER IF NIFTY FUTURE FALTERS AFTER THE INITIAL JERKY MOVEMENTS OR  DURING THE PROCESS OF LIKELY SLIDING,  BREACHES & SUSTAINS BELOW 5949 TO 5944 ZONE THEN THERE IS EVERY POSSIBILITY OF IT SLIDING FURTHER TOWARDS TUESDAY’S LOW OF 5918 FUTURE LEVELS WITH A DECEPTIVE HALT AROUND 5934 TO 5928 FUTURE ZONE SUSTAINING BELOW WHICH MAY EVEN SEE 5909 TO 5906 FUTURE LEVELS BELOW TUESDAY’S  TRADING LOW OF 5918. A SLIDE BELOW 5900 CAN SEE THURSDAY 11TH JULY LOWS OF 5893 THAT MAY THREATEN THE CRITICAL CONFLUENCE POINT 20, 34 & 50 DAY EMAS AROUND 5868 FOLLOWED BY DAILY PIVOT AROUND 5858 FUTURE LEVELS DURING THE WEEK.

NIFTY SPOT 3 MONTHS DAILY CHART 5TH APR TO 12TH JULY(Click image to view larger)

MARKETS FOR WEDNESDAY 03 JULY

TUESDAY SAW  THE WELL DESERVED PAUSE TO THE 3 DAYS OF RISE IN NIFTY & AFTER THE INITIAL PAUSE OR A MILD PULL DOWN  ON WEDNESDAY NIFTY IS LIKELY TO RESUME THE UP MOVE . SO, LOOK FOR SOME INTRADAY CORRECTION TO BUY FOR GOOD GAINS. ALTHOUGH THE CANDLE OF TUESDAY WAS THE HARAMI  RED CANDLE ENGULFED WITHIN THE BIG GREEN CANDLE OF MONDAY, YET AS LONG AS MONDAYS LOWS OF 5822 SPOT IS NOT DECISIVELY BREACHED THIS TUESDAY BORN  HARAMI  MAY TURN OUT TO BE A SUPERMAN IN THE FORM OF AN INSIDE CANDLE OR A 7TH NRB CANDLE TO SHOW A REMARKABLE RISE ONCE  MONDAY 1ST JULY HIGH OF 5904 SPOT IS DECISIVELY BREACHED.

MARKETS FOR TUESDAY 02 JULY

MARKETS  LOOK HIGHLY BULLISH EVEN AFTER 3 DAYS OF  GOOD RISE.  JUST LOOK FOR AN INTRADAY DECLINE TO BOLDLY BUY & HOLD. GO LONG  BUT  HAVE STOP LOSS BELOW THE FUTURE LEVEL OF 5860 TO REVERSE FOR SHORTING BELOW 5860 FOR GOOD INTRADAY GAINS. NIFTY FUTURES FAILING TO HOLD 5860 CAN FALL TO 5838 AND A BREACH OF 5838  CAN SEE NIFTY FUTURES SLIDING TO 5816 FROM WHERE IT WILL MOVE UP AGAIN. SIMILARLY ON THE HIGHER SIDE IN CASE NIFTY FUTURE SUSTAINS ABOVE 5929 THEN IT CAN SHOOT UP TO 5949 ABOVE WHICH NIFTY FUTURE CAN EVEN TEST 5970.

MARKETS FOR MONDAY 1ST JULY

NIFTY SPOT HAD THE EXPECTED MONSTROUS RISE ON FRIDAY AND AFTER OPENING GAP UP ABOVE THE  INITIAL RESISTANCE LINE, IT WENT TO MAKE A HIGH OF 5853 AND CLOSED AT 5842 AROUND THE DAILY PIVOT. THE SHORT SQUEEZE ACTION OF FRIDAY SAW NIFTY CATAPULTED ABOVE THE 20 & THE 200 DAY EMA IN ONE GO AND TOUCHED THE 50 DAY EMA AROUND 5850. AS CAN BE SEEN IN THE DAILY CHART OF SPOT NIFTY  ABOVE, NIFTY IS NEAR THE NEXT RESISTANCE OF 5868 WHICH IS FORMED BY THE RESISTANCE LINE COMING FROM 20 MAY TOP OF 6229 & 30 MAY HIGH OF 6133. THIS RESISTANCE LINE IS JUST ABOVE THE 11 JUNE HIGH OF 5868 & 18TH JUNE HIGH OF 5863. A DECISIVE BREACH OF 5863 TO 5868 SPOT ZONE  WILL WITNESS ANOTHER BOUT OF MASSIVE SHORT COVERING THAT MAY PROPEL SPOT NIFTY TOWARDS THE NEXT CRITICAL RESISTANCE OF 5975 WHICH IS THE 61.8% RETRACEMENT LEVEL COUNTED FROM 20 MAY SWING HIGH OF 6229 & 26TH JUNE SWING LOW OF 5566. ONE CAN  OBSERVE  FIERCE BATTLE BETWEEN THE BULLS & THE BEARS AROUND THESE TWO RESISTANCES OF 5868 & 5975 & LIKE  IT ALWAYS HAPPENS,  THE BULLS CERTAINLY WILL EMERGE AS THE WINNERS DURING THIS MARKET FRIENDLY MONTH OF JULY.

TECHNICALLY, IF ONE OBSERVES THE DAILY INDICATORS THEN ONE WILL FIND THAT A LOT OF FURTHER UP MOVE IS IN STORE FOR NIFTY. EXPIRY DAY DECISIVE BREACH AND CLOSE AT 5682 ABOVE THE 26TH JUNE PERFECT DOJI  & IN SIDE BAR SETUP’S MOTHER CANDLE HIGH OF 5666 WAS THE INITIAL TRIGGER FOR THE SHARP UP MOVE OF FRIDAY AFTER A BIG GAP UP ABOVE THE INITIAL RESISTANCE LINE. WITH THE SLOW STOCHASTIC GENERATING DEFINITE INDICATIONS OF FURTHER UP MOVE ALONG WITH THE +VE DIVERGENCE IN DAILY MACD HISTOGRAM . THE FORMATION OF A HOOK BY 20 DAY EMA  ON TOUCHING  THE 200 DAY EMA ADDS STRENGTH TO THE DAILY CHARTS FOR FURTHER UP MOVE. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SMALL CORRECTIONS TO WEED OUT WEAKER HANDS BUT THESE CORRECTIONS ARE THE